Blog Archives

(de)Energized Europe

natural Gas Europe

A couple of months ago I wrote about the unfolding energy challenges related to the sharp recovery out of Covid and the transition to renewable energy sources. The article talked about coal and how the demand for it has increased significantly while supply has dropped due to Covid and the utter disdain for it as an energy source due to its carbon emissions.

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Men, Women, and the Value of Doing Nothing

woman vs. men

Let us put men and women together

See which one is smarter

Some say men, but I say no

The women got the men like a puppet show

It ain’t me –

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Stocks Drop and Jobs Contract

Stocks Drop and Jobs Contract

One can see from the following charts from Sentimentrader.com that the last 100 trading days have been one of the worst periods in terms of stock returns in modern history. 

Stock History 12-31-1946 12-31-2001

And while the jury is still out as to whether we will have a recession over the next year,

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Going into Labor

Labor Jobs Inflation Employment 2-Year Treasury Notes

Last week I wrote about how important the 2-Year Treasury note yield was to ascertain how close the Fed was to stopping its rate hikes and how high the Federal Funds Rate may reach. Based on past cycles and declaring that the 2-Year yield had peaked at 4.73% in November,

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Four Eyes on The Two-Year

Four Eyes on The 2 Year Treasury

Introductory note: I wear contacts and glasses, so that’s why I have four eyes paying close attention to the 2-Year Treasury Note yield.

The Federal Reserve has embarked on six tightening cycles since 1988, with the most recent having commenced in March 2022 and one that is still in process.

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Economic Tug of War

Economic Tug of War

Are jobs a lagging indicator? That is the question as last week was a very ugly one in terms of the Apple announcement and other economic reports suggesting the global economy is slowing. At the same time, the jobs report was quite stellar as the economy produced a seasonally adjusted 312,000 jobs,

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From Housing to Labor and Back Again

From Housing to Labor and Back Again

I think this chart is what keeps Jay Powell up at night. If he were convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that we were still in the same low inflation regime that had been present for decades prior to Covid,

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Riding a False Premise: The Hard Rain Scenario

Never did that before

I saw ten thousand talkers whose tongues were all broken

I saw guns and sharp swords in the hands of young children

And it’s a hard, and it’s a hard,

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Only Time Will Tell: Hedging Ahead in the Expectations of a Shifting Fed

Only Time Will Tell_ Hedging Ahead in the Expectations of a Shifting Fed

I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I’ll pivot back to Jay Powell and the Fed from Pete Townshend and The Who. Two of my favorite subjects 🙂

The minutes of the Fed meetings that took place November 1-2 were released last week.

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The Power of Concentration What You Need to Know

Power of Concentration Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett’s 2014 Letter to Investors – The Power of Concentration

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway’s stock price exceeded $200,000 per share for the first time in August 2014. The company was the world’s fifth most highly valued corporation in 2014 and dropped in 2022 to 6th place. The stock was propelled higher by record earnings (August 1,

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