Mohamed El-Erian, the former CEO of PIMCO, said recently on CNBC that if you want to know what’s going to happen to U.S. long-term interest rates, then all you have to do is look to Germany. And so that is what I did.
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Blog Archives
Fire My Metaphor for Earnings News: Catalytic Regeneration
There’s a regional park near my house that I like to hike. It has beautiful scenery, a lot of hills, and a number of people on the trails that conveys a feeling of community and self-care. Its topography and large size allow for many different trail options in terms of length,
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Mastery in Charleston
I have a myriad of reasons for writing my blog week in and week out. One of them is that it can serve as a quasi-diary of my life so that I have something I can turn to remember what was happening in my life and when.
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Obsessed by Curves: Yield Curves that Is
This is going to be a short blog post given my travel schedule last week. I have been talking for awhile now about the narrowing yield curve and the prospects for it inverting. The 10-year Treasury finally went lower than the 3-month Treasury bill which Federal Reserve researchers say is the best indicator for telegraphing a future recession.
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Inverting James Taylor: The Fan
Every couple has its idiosyncrasies. One of those in my long relationship with Roneet was her insistence every night that we sleep with the portable standing floor fan on no matter how cold it was inside the house. I am pretty sensitive to being cold at night so when she would insist that the fan be on,
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Turn and Face the Strange(r) - My Hippie Uber Driver
In David Bowie’s song Changes, the protagonist tells himself to “turn and face the strange”. Change is inevitable and in order to drive change or adapt to it, one has to go outside of the comfortable and familiar and take risks.
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Sorry Jack: Strong Economic Headwinds - Now What?
Last week was one of those data weeks that corroborated the bond market’s view that the world is facing some strong economic headwinds. The news on the international front was particularly dismal with Chinese exports dropping by 20%, and German factory orders contracting as well.
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In Sickness and Health
It was a year ago that Roneet and I, along with her parents went on a trip of a lifetime. We took a five-week cruise that stopped in 11 countries in Africa and Asia. I am so glad that we took that trip as we were able to spend such a glorious time together and I ended up with such beautiful memories and hundreds of pictures to remind me of our special time.
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Van Revisited with a Little Help(less) from Neil Young and Family
With the exception of writing about interest rates. I do make a concerted effort to have content on my blog be fresh and try to avoid repetition. With that being said, however, there is only so much one can write about that is novel and insightful.
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Federal Reserve Response to the Market’s Beseeching - Power of Structural Forces
It’s been a very busy three weeks of travel so I’m going to keep this one pretty short and sweet. And while I often write a thousand words or more, this post will hopefully support the adage that “a picture is worth a thousand words.”
The Federal Reserve finally responded to the market’s beseeching that it pauses its rate increases and not be on a “damn the torpedoes” path of raising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet.
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