Blog Archives

China Rebalancing: Daunting Math that Will Impact the World

 China Rebalancing: Daunting Math that Will Impact the World

Given China’s importance to the world economy, I wanted to focus this week’s post on some of the challenges China is facing in the short and long term.

China’s Economy

From an investor perspective, there is very little optimism that China’s economy will experience stronger growth after severely disappointing in the wake of its Covid reopening.

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All Eyes on the Consumer

All Eyes on the Consumer GDP

One of the things I’m constantly reminded of from playing tennis is the power of consistency. If you can play each facet of the game reasonably well, you don’t have any glaring weaknesses, and you have the anticipatory skills and speed to have effective court coverage,

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Lucky 36

Novak Djokovic Gary Carmell chai

Last week there were two notable events for me. The first was watching the extraordinary Wimbledon Final between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, and the second was my 36th anniversary at CWS.  In Judaism, the number 18 is a lucky number because it is connected to life in Jewish numerology. 

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Preparing for Slams

French Open at Roland Garros on June 4, 2023

I had the great privilege to attend the French Open at Roland Garros on June 4th. We saw two women’s matches and one men’s match involving Novak Djokovic. This was the first time I saw Djokovic play in person, so I was really happy we had tickets on the day he was playing on center court. 

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10 Years Later: Getting in the Game and Staying in the Game

10th Blogging Anniversary May 2, 2013

This week is the 10th anniversary of my website going live, and during this decade, I have fortunately been able to write a blog each week without interruption. It has helped me become more observant and focused while on vacations knowing I will write about some of them while away.

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The Squeeze Is On

Squeeze FRED

As this chart shows, the yield continues to invert with 3-month Treasury Bill yields substantially higher than 10-year Treasury Note yields.

10-year treasury constant maturity minus 3-month treasury constant maturity 1986 - 2023

As I wrote about previously, Fed Chairman Jay Powell discounted traditional yield curve indicators such as the differential between 10s and 3-month T Bills and 10s and 2-year Treasury yields.

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And Yet

And Yet Labor Economy Government Bonds

Last week was pretty important in confirming the trend change in interest rates and solidifying a slowdown in economic activity. Evidence of the economy slowing is reflected in more U.S. firms cutting their earnings guidance versus raising them.

Number of US firms with corporate guidance announcements in 2022

As the above chart shows,

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Going into Labor

Labor Jobs Inflation Employment 2-Year Treasury Notes

Last week I wrote about how important the 2-Year Treasury note yield was to ascertain how close the Fed was to stopping its rate hikes and how high the Federal Funds Rate may reach. Based on past cycles and declaring that the 2-Year yield had peaked at 4.73% in November,

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Four Eyes on The Two-Year

Four Eyes on The 2 Year Treasury

Introductory note: I wear contacts and glasses, so that’s why I have four eyes paying close attention to the 2-Year Treasury Note yield.

The Federal Reserve has embarked on six tightening cycles since 1988, with the most recent having commenced in March 2022 and one that is still in process.

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Only Time Will Tell: Hedging Ahead in the Expectations of a Shifting Fed

Only Time Will Tell_ Hedging Ahead in the Expectations of a Shifting Fed

I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I’ll pivot back to Jay Powell and the Fed from Pete Townshend and The Who. Two of my favorite subjects 🙂

The minutes of the Fed meetings that took place November 1-2 were released last week.

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