Blog Archives

A Muddled Approach to Guesstimating Libor's Next Peak

LIBOR Guesstimating Libor's Next Peak

Although I’m in the camp that the Fed will stick to its word and not raise short-term interest rates until after 2023 at the earliest, the market is betting differently. Rather than focusing on when the Fed will start raising rates, let’s assume that they will.

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Sayonara Bonds

Japanese Bond Treasuries

The first quarter was incredibly ugly for bond investors, particularly those with exposure to longer-maturity ones. Bond investors were not happy as Treasuries generated the worst quarterly return since 1980.

A Bad Quarter for Bonds - Bloomberg Barclays treasury index fell 4% 1973 - 2020

So who were the big sellers of Treasuries?

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Stuck Ships and Chips

stuck ships in Suez Canal March 2021

[UPDATE] 3:00 PM Egypt – 6 AM PST the Ever Given was refloated and is on the move again. Credit is given to the full moon bringing the spring higher tides, 14 tug boats, and the 27,000 meters of sand removed. The following was written prior to this news.

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Lessons from Columbo

Columbo Schitt's Creek

Not surprisingly, one of the ways of occupying my time while recovering from my heart surgery has been to dive into all of the different content options on the streaming services. Despite the myriad of choices, I have found very little to watch and that is really more particular to me in that I have a hard time starting a series and being committed to finishing it.

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Elon Musk and The Real Them

Elon Musk interview job candidate

Hiring people can definitely be a crapshoot. After all, people are putting on their best game faces when they are being interviewed because the stakes can be quite high since it involves people’s livelihoods and careers. With such large stakes many people will unsurprisingly go to great lengths to prepare for interviews and,

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GamePop and the Lollapalooza Effect

Gamestop r_wallstreetbets Robinhood

Here is GameStop’s stock price chart for one month. Setting aside that it was up 62% for the time and day when I captured this screenshot, it’s up over six times during this one month period. And at its peak, it was up about 10 times!

GameStop Robin Hood 5 Day Stock

Now let’s look at a three-month view and the meteoric rise can be put in more perspective.

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Feliz Covidad - My End of 2020 Rant!

“Oh what a tangled web we weave.”

-Sir Walter Scott

With 2020 in the rearview mirror, we would all love to put Covid behind us. Unfortunately, the virus doesn’t work on a calendar.

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Many Pictures Tell a Story - The Fed

This week will be another one focused on charts and graphs that caught my attention. The emphasis will be on the story of the Fed remaining very dovish in spite of what appears to be some pockets of economic strength (e.g. housing, commodities, semiconductors),

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Platforms and an Income Streaming Sonnet

Bob Dylan Gary Carmell William Shakespeare sonnet

I was privy to a conversation between two females, one of whom is a senior in high school. She was lamenting the fact that her English teacher had given her class an assignment to write a sonnet. This caught my attention as, while I have expressed myself a few times over the years by writing haikus,

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Let's Get Real

COVID19 Vaccine Stimulus Jobs Numbers

The jobs report released on Friday was disappointing. 

Job growth has seriously slowed - economists react to 'disappointing' November employment report December 4, 2020

Disappointing Job Growth

Perhaps the report shouldn’t have been such a surprise on the downside based on this chart.

Meager Bounce for Job Hunting Searches in November 2020 Oct 1, 2019 - Feb 1, 2021

It would appear that job seekers are less confident about their prospects as they have significantly reduced their searches.

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