Blog Archives

The Cost of Verbosity Amplified by Succinct Graphical Displays of A Strongly Improving Apartment Market

Apartment Market

Mark Twain once said, “I didn’t have time to write you a short letter, so I wrote a long one.”

When writing (and speaking) it’s fairly easy to let the words flow without much regard to precisely communicating. If one gets into a stream of consciousness state it can be helpful for the writer and speaker to release what’s welling up inside but this may not be what’s best for the reader or listener in terms of communicating clearly,

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Keep your Eyes on the Road but Never Lose Sight of the Destination

Interest Rates Keep your Eyes on the Road

Investing has some parallels with driving. It’s important to have a destination that keeps you on course. I think of the destination as financial goals rooted in thoughtful consideration of powerful trends upon which to capitalize such that the wind can be put at your back while also being fully cognizant of what exposures you may have that can lead to a permanent loss of capital based on shorter-term issues arising.

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D(ata)-Day

Data D(ata)

I have been turning to charts more regularly for my weekly blog posts than I have in the past. Like most people, I see many of the challenges and price pressures resulting from the massively disrupted global supply chain. It shows up in terribly unreliable contractors (I’m having a pool built so I am experiencing this first hand) and the significant increase in the cost of materials that are leading to the rationing of some goods like plywood and even chlorine.

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Choose One's Models Carefully

Chinese Labor

Japan has been my model for why I think interest rates will stay low. Its rapidly aging society has led to a shrinking pool of labor over the last two decades which has led to less consumption and more savings. In addition, public spending has increased significantly to help keep the economy growing in the face of strong demographic headwinds.

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Inflation - Temporary Peak or Just Starting?

inflation

Inflation is clearly one of the hottest topics for investors in particular and society more generally as the following chart shows. Core inflation has not moved commensurately with the exploding interest in the topic.

Inflation is going to be the HOTTEST topic of Q2 and Q3

The following charts show why inflation is such a hot topic.

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A Muddled Approach to Guesstimating Libor's Next Peak

LIBOR Guesstimating Libor's Next Peak

Although I’m in the camp that the Fed will stick to its word and not raise short-term interest rates until after 2023 at the earliest, the market is betting differently. Rather than focusing on when the Fed will start raising rates, let’s assume that they will.

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Sayonara Bonds

Japanese Bond Treasuries

The first quarter was incredibly ugly for bond investors, particularly those with exposure to longer-maturity ones. Bond investors were not happy as Treasuries generated the worst quarterly return since 1980.

A Bad Quarter for Bonds - Bloomberg Barclays treasury index fell 4% 1973 - 2020

So who were the big sellers of Treasuries?

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Stuck Ships and Chips

stuck ships in Suez Canal March 2021

[UPDATE] 3:00 PM Egypt – 6 AM PST the Ever Given was refloated and is on the move again. Credit is given to the full moon bringing the spring higher tides, 14 tug boats, and the 27,000 meters of sand removed. The following was written prior to this news.

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Lessons from Columbo

Columbo Schitt's Creek

Not surprisingly, one of the ways of occupying my time while recovering from my heart surgery has been to dive into all of the different content options on the streaming services. Despite the myriad of choices, I have found very little to watch and that is really more particular to me in that I have a hard time starting a series and being committed to finishing it.

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Elon Musk and The Real Them

Elon Musk interview job candidate

Hiring people can definitely be a crapshoot. After all, people are putting on their best game faces when they are being interviewed because the stakes can be quite high since it involves people’s livelihoods and careers. With such large stakes many people will unsurprisingly go to great lengths to prepare for interviews and,

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