Blog Archives

The Super El Niño That Could Rewrite 2026

El Niño

Meteorologists are currently staring at climate models with a sense of profound unease. Recent projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggest that Pacific sea surface temperatures are not just rising; they are threatening to move “off the charts”. Some models predict temperature increases exceeding 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) above average by the fall of 2026—a level of warming that would signify one of the most powerful El Niño events in recorded history.

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Trade-Offs in Monte Carlo

Monte Carlo Heather and Gary Carmell

Sometimes the Place Trumps the Play
On Trade‑Offs, Tennis, and the Economics of Time

Thomas Sowell famously defined economics not as money, markets, or math, but as the allocation of scarce resources that have alternative uses.

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The Mind Is in Every Cell — An Investor’s Reflection

embodied investing

After finishing listening to Sound Man on Audible, which is a book I highly recommend for music lovers, it cycles through snippets of other books the algorithm thinks I might like. One of those books was The Uncool by Cameron Crowe.

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Pattern Recognition Is Not Prophecy

energy geopolitics
On Energy, Empire, and the Seductive Power of Coherent Stories

One of the most intoxicating human capacities is pattern recognition.

It is the engine of intelligence, the source of insight, and the reason we survive complexity at all. But it is also the birthplace of our most confident errors—especially when patterns begin to feel inevitable.

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How To Find Satisfaction in Retirement

Happy Retirement

With the baby boomers starting to descend down the other side of the hill with millions soon following, retirement planning has understandably become not only very important but big business as well. Most of what future retirees and financial advisors focus on are how to prepare financially so that not only can people have the choice to retire but once they do they don’t outlive their money.

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China Syndrome

China Syndrome

How Energy, Geopolitics, and Inflation Are Triggering a Global Market Chain Reaction

Financial markets have a long history of overreacting to geopolitical headlines and then quietly moving on. This time feels different. The recent surge in energy prices following events in Iran—coming on the heels of U.S.

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From Tennis Courts to Ticker Tapes: A Micro Story Inside the AI Software Selloff

SaaSpocalypse

The last few weeks have been brutal for software stocks. Words like carnage, panic, and even “SaaSpocalypse” have crept into investor vocabulary as shares of companies long viewed as durable compounders—Salesforce,

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The Great Recalibration: Navigating the Economic Tug-of-War

Economic Recalibration

The financial narrative has evolved from a simple “cooling economy” story into a complex tug-of-war between recessionary signals and surprising pockets of resilience. While markets continue to price in future rate cuts, recent data highlights significant cross-currents that make the Federal Reserve’s path forward increasingly uncertain.

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Be Free in Your Head: What Roger Federer Taught Me During the Australian Open

Be Free Roger Federer

While watching the Australian Open, a commercial featuring Roger Federer flashed across the screen. In it, he said something that stopped me mid‑scroll:

“Be free in your head, be free in your shots, go for it.
The brave will be rewarded here.”

It was classic Federer — elegant,

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Bob Weir and Reflections on Mortality

Bob Weir Mortality
Living Well, Dying Well: Lessons from Bob Weir and the Numbers We Leave Behind

When Bob Weir passed away at 78, I found myself doing something that has become a ritual whenever someone central to my life leaves us: I looked at the numbers.

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