Preface: This turned out far longer than I was expecting but so it goes.
One of the more profound lyrics of the Grateful Dead is “Once in a while you can get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.” That has played out throughout much of my life with epiphanies and insights from unexpected sources that have altered my path,
I have always been fascinated by economic cycles. What I have learned over the years is that financial excesses that reverse into fear and revulsion are often catalysts for economic downturns. Real estate, commercial and/or residential, are often culprits because they are assets that can be leveraged which can magnify returns as well as often being influenced by tax advantages which can stimulate demand beyond its longer-term trend.
Last week was brutal for retailers as major earnings announcements showed how they have been hit very hard by huge cost increases. Wal-Mart started the week off shocking the market with its very weak earnings outlook and then there was Target.
Its stock price got absolutely crushed in the wake of its results being released.
I love the word enantiodromia. Maybe it’s because of how esoteric it is or how intelligent it makes me seem (even though I can barely pronounce it). I think the real reason I like it is that it captures a very powerful tendency in people and in cycles for people and nature to shift to their opposites.
There’s nothing like a challenge to focus one’s mind, attention, and organization of one’s life to meet that challenge. I was playing doubles last Tuesday night and right before the match, I received a text from someone who I play singles with fairly regularly.
I had the distinct pleasure to once again attend the last three days of the BNP Paribas tennis tournament at Indian Wells. I purchased tickets for the quarterfinals, semi-finals, and finals for both men and women for singles and doubles. I love to observe the players in action to study how they approach their craft and adapt to different situations,
The Fed finally raised short-term interest rates last week. The market is expecting a very fast and steep rate hike cycle as this chart shows. This is a far cry from Powell reiterating that the Fed wouldn’t raise rates until the end of 2023 at the earliest.
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