For four decades—from Paul Volcker’s inflation-crushing rate peak in 1981 all the way to 2022—investors operated in a world defined by a single, unbreakable trend: long-term interest rates were moving down.
Throughout those 40 years,
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Blog Archives
When the Price of Capital Sends a Warning
For much of the past decade, investors and borrowers became conditioned to believe that interest rates were primarily a function of Federal Reserve policy. If the Fed lowered short-term rates, longer-term borrowing costs would eventually follow. If inflation moderated, bond yields would decline. That framework was never completely accurate,
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Banksy, Bond Yields, and the Art of Productive Paranoia
While attending the GRI conference in Paris recently, I found myself reflecting on a disconnect between what I was seeing with my own eyes and what I know higher interest rates are intended to accomplish.
Everywhere Heather and I went,
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Herbert Simon at the Loan Desk
Why “Good Enough” Is Winning in the Age of Execution
I recently finished listening to Inside the Box, a book that explores how constraints—properly understood—don’t limit creativity, but instead give rise to it.
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To Fix or Float? That Is the Question
The Great Financing Question: From a Decade of Floating-Rate Success to a New Era of Uncertainty
One of the most important strategic decisions we make as multifamily owners is not simply what properties to buy, but how to finance them.
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The Great Recalibration: Navigating the Economic Tug-of-War
The financial narrative has evolved from a simple “cooling economy” story into a complex tug-of-war between recessionary signals and surprising pockets of resilience. While markets continue to price in future rate cuts, recent data highlights significant cross-currents that make the Federal Reserve’s path forward increasingly uncertain.
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2025—A Year of Impact, Presence, and Woah
by 
Gary Carmell
Posted in A.I., Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, News, Personal, Tennis, Travel
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in A.I., Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, News, Personal, Tennis, Travel
No Comments ↓
If there’s one word that keeps returning to me this year, it’s “woah.” Not the “woe” of victimhood, but the woah of awe—the inhale that invites presence, humility, and gratitude. 2025 brought plenty of reasons to pause: service that nourished the soul,
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Dual Mandate-->Dueling Tensions
Rather than laboriously going through the Fed statement released after it cut rates by 25 basis points last week, along with Jay Powell’s key statements at his press conference, I thought I would turn to one of my A.I. assistants to produce an analysis of what was said and how investors reacted to last week’s move.
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Pendulum Interrupted
The U.S. apartment market has gone through a very intense swing from the greatest market in my life in 2021 and early 2022 to a far more challenging one from 2023 through today. The pendulum swung far to the left in the wake of low interest rates,
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Emily Dickinson - Hope Is Not a Strategy
I many times thought Peace had come
When Peace was far away—
As Wrecked Men—deem they sight the Land—
At Centre of the Sea—
And struggle slacker—but to prove
As hopelessly as I—
How many the fictitious Shores—
Before the Harbor be—
-Emily Dickinson
Every so often I will read poetry to tap into timeless thoughts and wisdom.
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