I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I’ll pivot back to Jay Powell and the Fed from Pete Townshend and The Who. Two of my favorite subjects 🙂
The minutes of the Fed meetings that took place November 1-2 were released last week.
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Blog Archives
Only Time Will Tell: Hedging Ahead in the Expectations of a Shifting Fed
by 
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Stock History, Stock Market, Wealth
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Stock History, Stock Market, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Seeking Shelter from Shelter
Last Thursday was an incredible day for virtually all markets. That is when the CPI report was released, and inflation came in a bit lighter than expected which in turn lit a fire under the bond and stock markets. The NASDAQ was up by more than 7%,
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Purchasing Power and Paris
Although the hawkish Fed has made it more challenging for many businesses in the United States, it has also resulted in some beneficiaries. One is just plain old savers who, during Covid, essentially earned 0% on their idle savings. With the Fed aggressively raising short-term rates,
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All Roads Lead to the Fed
I was traveling internationally last week for some meetings in London as well as a side visit to Paris prior to Chunneling it to London. While I was hoping to discuss Paris this week, given limited time and the market’s reaction to last week’s CPI report,
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Miss Truss(t)'s Hail Mary
The value of a country’s currency is a good barometer of its economic policies, human capital, competitiveness, freedoms, growth prospects, etc. From this chart, one can see that Great Britain has been on a long decline from a competitiveness standpoint versus the United States.
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In Search of Goldilocks
Last week the Fed raised short-term interest rates by 0.75%. This was entirely expected by the market. Given that this was already priced in, it stands to reason that the only source of new information would be what the Fed would communicate in its statement that’s released in conjunction with announcing the interest rate hike along with Chairman Jay Powell’s press conference.
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China Syndrome
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Real Estate
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Real Estate
No Comments ↓
The evidence seems to be increasingly persuasive that economic growth is slowing materially. This is from the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which has a good track record of identifying turns in the business cycle. Its Weekly Leading Index is clearly showing a negative growth rate.
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Monetary Squeeze and Industrial Disease
Yeah, now the workforce is disgusted, downs tools, walks
Innocence is injured, experience just talks
Everyone seeks damages, everyone agrees that
These are classic symptoms of a monetary squeeze
On ITV and BBC they talk about the curse
Philosophy is useless,
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Regime Change
The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs Wade understandably elicited a huge wave of outcry (pro and con). One of the most controversial aspects of the decision was the seeming disregard for Court precedent and how it was perceived by legal experts to have been tossed aside.
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Stocks Drop and Jobs Contract
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Stock Market
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Stock Market
No Comments ↓
One can see from the following charts from Sentimentrader.com that the last 100 trading days have been one of the worst periods in terms of stock returns in modern history.Â
And while the jury is still out as to whether we will have a recession over the next year,
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