Last week was my 34th anniversary at CWS. I have been so fortunate to have had the opportunity to work with so many wonderful people over all of these years and to be blessed with my amazing partners Steve and Mike.
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Blog Archives
Keep your Eyes on the Road but Never Lose Sight of the Destination
Investing has some parallels with driving. It’s important to have a destination that keeps you on course. I think of the destination as financial goals rooted in thoughtful consideration of powerful trends upon which to capitalize such that the wind can be put at your back while also being fully cognizant of what exposures you may have that can lead to a permanent loss of capital based on shorter-term issues arising.
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You Can't Divorce the Observer from the Observed
I keep focusing my blog posts on economic data via chart representation because we’re in one of those times that needs to be monitored closely for trend reversals (disinflation to inflation) and a change in the Fed’s reaction function (supporting Main Street vs Wall Street).
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Housing - No Bubble but Hitting a Wall?
Given how hot the housing market is there are understandable concerns as to whether we are in a bubble. Bloomberg Businessweek had a good article addressing some of these concerns that included some interesting charts.
This first one shows how the cumulative appreciation over the last five years has matched that of the bubble years of 2002-7.
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D(ata)-Day
by 
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock Market, Uncategorized, Wealth
2 Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock Market, Uncategorized, Wealth
2 Comments ↓
I have been turning to charts more regularly for my weekly blog posts than I have in the past. Like most people, I see many of the challenges and price pressures resulting from the massively disrupted global supply chain. It shows up in terribly unreliable contractors (I’m having a pool built so I am experiencing this first hand) and the significant increase in the cost of materials that are leading to the rationing of some goods like plywood and even chlorine.
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Transitioning to Transitory Inflation?
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Uncategorized
1 Comment ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Uncategorized
1 Comment ↓
The multi-trillion dollar question is whether inflation is transitory. The Fed and other central bankers believe it is as this chart depicts.
As I’ve written about before, the Fed’s reaction function has switched from a forecasting-based approach to one that is now outcomes-focused in terms of needing to see tangible improvements occurring on Main Street even if it leads to speculation and large rewards on Wall Street.
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Get A Grip
33 days after my heart surgery I resumed playing tennis. Of course, it was not at the same level or intensity as it was prior to my surgery but it was great to get back on the court nonetheless.
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A Muddled Approach to Guesstimating Libor's Next Peak
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock Market, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock Market, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Although I’m in the camp that the Fed will stick to its word and not raise short-term interest rates until after 2023 at the earliest, the market is betting differently. Rather than focusing on when the Fed will start raising rates, let’s assume that they will.
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Sayonara Bonds
The first quarter was incredibly ugly for bond investors, particularly those with exposure to longer-maturity ones. Bond investors were not happy as Treasuries generated the worst quarterly return since 1980.
So who were the big sellers of Treasuries?
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Stuck Ships and Chips
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Wealth
2 Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Wealth
2 Comments ↓
[UPDATE] 3:00 PM Egypt – 6 AM PST the Ever Given was refloated and is on the move again. Credit is given to the full moon bringing the spring higher tides, 14 tug boats, and the 27,000 meters of sand removed. The following was written prior to this news.
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