Blog Archives

A Muddled Approach to Guesstimating Libor's Next Peak

LIBOR Guesstimating Libor's Next Peak

Although I’m in the camp that the Fed will stick to its word and not raise short-term interest rates until after 2023 at the earliest, the market is betting differently. Rather than focusing on when the Fed will start raising rates, let’s assume that they will.

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Sayonara Bonds

Japanese Bond Treasuries

The first quarter was incredibly ugly for bond investors, particularly those with exposure to longer-maturity ones. Bond investors were not happy as Treasuries generated the worst quarterly return since 1980.

A Bad Quarter for Bonds - Bloomberg Barclays treasury index fell 4% 1973 - 2020

So who were the big sellers of Treasuries?

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Stuck Ships and Chips

stuck ships in Suez Canal March 2021

[UPDATE] 3:00 PM Egypt – 6 AM PST the Ever Given was refloated and is on the move again. Credit is given to the full moon bringing the spring higher tides, 14 tug boats, and the 27,000 meters of sand removed. The following was written prior to this news.

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I Won't Back Down - Powell and Yellen versus Wall Street

Jerome Powell Janet Yellen Wall Street

Well, I won’t back down

No, I won’t back down

You can stand me up at the gates of hell

But I won’t back down

No,

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Many Pictures Tell a Story - The Fed

This week will be another one focused on charts and graphs that caught my attention. The emphasis will be on the story of the Fed remaining very dovish in spite of what appears to be some pockets of economic strength (e.g. housing, commodities, semiconductors),

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Let's Get Real

COVID19 Vaccine Stimulus Jobs Numbers

The jobs report released on Friday was disappointing. 

Job growth has seriously slowed - economists react to 'disappointing' November employment report December 4, 2020

Disappointing Job Growth

Perhaps the report shouldn’t have been such a surprise on the downside based on this chart.

Meager Bounce for Job Hunting Searches in November 2020 Oct 1, 2019 - Feb 1, 2021

It would appear that job seekers are less confident about their prospects as they have significantly reduced their searches.

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Covid Housing Fever

housing market fever

I subscribe to The Daily Shot which is an economics and finance-oriented site that aggregates a tremendous number of charts to give investors a great visual overview of key aspects of the economy, both domestic and global, as well as financial markets.

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Post-Election Chart Frenzy

post election

First of all, kudos to the tremendous participation among Americans in the electoral process. This election galvanized Americans into participating in the democratic process. Love or hate Trump; there is no question that he is a catalyst for stirring emotions and action.

Preliminary Data Suggests Highest U.S. Election Turnout Since 1900

It was fascinating to see how markets reacted as information was released related to the election.

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Cheap Trillion Dollar Insurance

stimulus Cheap Trillion Dollar Insurance

I’ve been pleasantly surprised so far with regard to how well our rent collections have held up since the onset of COVID and the corresponding economic carnage. On average, we’ve been collecting across our portfolio about 98% of what we have billed.

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A Brutal Dichotomy: Time For Another Meaningful Stimulus?

Brutal Dichotomy: Tightening Fed Stimulus

Fiscal stimulus has now started to contract while the Fed’s monetary support for the economy has tightened quite significantly over the last three months. See what the following charts show:

U.S. Fiscal Thrust Policy Expansionary Policy Contractionary Stimulus

Fed Balance Sheet Impulse 10-2020 Stimulus

The following is from The Washington Post and shows how significant the support for the unemployed has been and how it will drop materially if no stimulus package is passed.

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