Last week were engaged in our annual planning process. As part of this, we come up with key assumptions regarding the operating environment for the next three years or so. Interest rates, of course, are a huge variable in our business and dominated much of the discussion.
The market didn’t react very well to Jerome Powell’s characterization of Wednesday’s interest rate reduction as a “mid-cycle adjustment.” Investors took that to be a bearish easing of monetary policy. The stock market dropped, the bond market took a future interest rate reduction off of the table,
Last week my daughter and I went to see the Improvised Shakespeare Company in Los Angeles. Wow, what a mind-blowing experience that was. It was extraordinary to see the four actors take an idea thrown out to them by the audience and turn it into a 90 minute Shakespeare play.
Mohamed El-Erian, the former CEO of PIMCO, said recently on CNBC that if you want to know what’s going to happen to U.S. long-term interest rates, then all you have to do is look to Germany. And so that is what I did.
It’s been a very busy three weeks of travel so I’m going to keep this one pretty short and sweet. And while I often write a thousand words or more, this post will hopefully support the adage that “a picture is worth a thousand words.”
The Federal Reserve finally responded to the market’s beseeching that it pauses its rate increases and not be on a “damn the torpedoes” path of raising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet.
The Grateful Dead have a song called The Eleven. In many ways the lyrics are unintelligible. It was written during their psychedelic phase so the lack of comprehension makes some sense as their senses were non-sensical.
With the midterm elections kicking into high gear and political rhetoric heating up and true believers huddling in their echo chambers and cocoons, I thought it would be interesting to look at some research carried out with regard to the 2016 presidential election and some of the surprising findings.