Last week we had our annual investor meeting. It was the first time we met in person since 2019. It was so nice to be together again. Despite not communicating the rosiest of messages, it was an evening that had great positive energy.
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Blog Archives
Down with Housing
With the renewed runup in interest rates, I thought it would be appropriate to revisit the homeownership market via a frenzy of charts. Of course, all real estate is local, but these overall trends are pretty powerful, so it would be unusual for most markets to be immune to them.
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Deconstructing Construction Employment
by 
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Market Bubbles, News, Real Estate
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Market Bubbles, News, Real Estate
No Comments ↓
Give me a word
Give me a sign
Show me where to look
Tell me, what will I find?
What will I find?
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And Yet
by Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, Trends, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, Trends, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Last week was pretty important in confirming the trend change in interest rates and solidifying a slowdown in economic activity. Evidence of the economy slowing is reflected in more U.S. firms cutting their earnings guidance versus raising them.
As the above chart shows,
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Turning a Liability into Asset via the Sale of a 100 Year Old House
Starting in 2012, my late wife and I began to invest in residential real estate beyond our primary residence and CWS investments. In 2013 Roneet decided that she wanted to have a small weekend place in Laguna Beach. I thought it was an idea definitely worth exploring,
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From Housing to Labor and Back Again
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Labor, News, Real Estate
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Labor, News, Real Estate
No Comments ↓
I think this chart is what keeps Jay Powell up at night. If he were convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that we were still in the same low inflation regime that had been present for decades prior to Covid,
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Seeking Shelter from Shelter
Last Thursday was an incredible day for virtually all markets. That is when the CPI report was released, and inflation came in a bit lighter than expected which in turn lit a fire under the bond and stock markets. The NASDAQ was up by more than 7%,
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Powell's Conundrum: Demand and Supply
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Labor, Manufacturing, Real Estate, Stock Market
1 Comment ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Labor, Manufacturing, Real Estate, Stock Market
1 Comment ↓
In my 35 years working at CWS and the years before that in college, when I first started taking economics classes, the most common term to find the equilibrium to determine optimal price has been “supply and demand.” I have also come to learn that words matter,
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Labor, Housing, and Fed Policy
It’s becoming even more clear that in order to stifle inflation, the Fed is going to have to induce a recession.
The following chart shows that it takes a recession to stamp out inflation or bring it down even more,
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China Syndrome
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Real Estate
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Real Estate
No Comments ↓
The evidence seems to be increasingly persuasive that economic growth is slowing materially. This is from the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which has a good track record of identifying turns in the business cycle. Its Weekly Leading Index is clearly showing a negative growth rate.
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