Blog Archives

Labor Market Inflection Point

unemployment

Last week was my 34th anniversary at CWS. I have been so fortunate to have had the opportunity to work with so many wonderful people over all of these years and to be blessed with my amazing partners Steve and Mike.

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The Cost of Verbosity Amplified by Succinct Graphical Displays of A Strongly Improving Apartment Market

Apartment Market

Mark Twain once said, “I didn’t have time to write you a short letter, so I wrote a long one.”

When writing (and speaking) it’s fairly easy to let the words flow without much regard to precisely communicating. If one gets into a stream of consciousness state it can be helpful for the writer and speaker to release what’s welling up inside but this may not be what’s best for the reader or listener in terms of communicating clearly,

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You Can't Divorce the Observer from the Observed

separating the observed from the observer

I keep focusing my blog posts on economic data via chart representation because we’re in one of those times that needs to be monitored closely for trend reversals (disinflation to inflation) and a change in the Fed’s reaction function (supporting Main Street vs Wall Street).

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Housing - No Bubble but Hitting a Wall?

no bubble housing

Given how hot the housing market is there are understandable concerns as to whether we are in a bubble. Bloomberg Businessweek had a good article addressing some of these concerns that included some interesting charts.

This first one shows how the cumulative appreciation over the last five years has matched that of the bubble years of 2002-7.

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A Deeper Dive into Housing

Deep dive into housing

Last week I discussed the possibility that housing could be the canary in the coal mine with regard to an important area of the economy starting to be impacted by higher prices. I wanted to go more in-depth with many more housing-related charts and then end with one non-housing chart that I think trumps everything else in terms of why I think the Fed will remain on hold in terms of raising rates.

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Transitioning to Transitory Inflation?

Transitory Inflation

The multi-trillion dollar question is whether inflation is transitory. The Fed and other central bankers believe it is as this chart depicts.

Fed Still Declaring Transitory Inflation Z-Scored Rolling 1-year Average 2000 - 2020

As I’ve written about before, the Fed’s reaction function has switched from a forecasting-based approach to one that is now outcomes-focused in terms of needing to see tangible improvements occurring on Main Street even if it leads to speculation and large rewards on Wall Street.

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Get A Grip

get a grip Gary Tennis

33 days after my heart surgery I resumed playing tennis. Of course, it was not at the same level or intensity as it was prior to my surgery but it was great to get back on the court nonetheless.

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Lumbering in Pain

Lumber

Although CWS is largely an owner/operator of apartment communities, we have been developing new communities for over 25 years. Approximately 15% of our portfolio consists of properties we have developed. Given the large amount of capital looking to own apartments and the compression in cap rates,

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Stuck Ships and Chips

stuck ships in Suez Canal March 2021

[UPDATE] 3:00 PM Egypt – 6 AM PST the Ever Given was refloated and is on the move again. Credit is given to the full moon bringing the spring higher tides, 14 tug boats, and the 27,000 meters of sand removed. The following was written prior to this news.

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Some Like it Hot (Including Homeowners)

Home Ownership Jay Powell economy

I remember reading about how Peter Drucker knew to leave Germany after Hitler came to power. He said it was simple. He read Mein Kampf and took Hitler at his word. Since he was Jewish he had to assume he was a target and he determined that the risk of emigrating was far less than the risk of staying.

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