Blog Archives

Single-Family Housing: No Bubble But There Is A “But”

housing

It has been our belief at CWS that housing in totality has been undersupplied. This does not mean that apartments may not be over-supplied in certain metro areas, particularly in the urban core. This is the case because these properties are often very dense and result in the delivery of a lot of units at one time that can often result in rent discounts to entice people to rent at these communities so developers can expedite getting out of their construction loans and/or be in a position to sell their properties.

Read more ›



Quantum Phases & Locking Rate

Quantum Phases

The last few weeks have been a good representation as to why I have an aversion to fixed-rate loans when doing a refinance or an acquisition. Assuming fixed rate loans from sellers when acquiring properties, however, is a different story and worthy of its own write up so I won’t address the distinctions here.

Read more ›



The Ever Growing Importance of Ideas

ideas

As property values have escalated greatly in major cities, particularly with a tech orientation, I ask myself if secondary markets make more sense as the cost of living is cheaper and yields are initially higher. The tradeoff historically has been far less growth potential and lower appreciation.

Read more ›



Long-Term Thinking & Timeless Principles for Successful Investing

We are coming up on our 2018 Annual Investor Meeting. This week’s blog is a look back at my 2017 speech focusing on the principles that have served CWS well over the years. You can enjoy the video and or read the highlights below. Here’s a modified transcript of my keynote:

Each year we do an annual report and this year the cover is timeless principles the artwork shows some of the parables that cover these timeless principles of long-term thinking.

Read more ›



Fake News – The Reality Is Not What You Think

Fake News

I recently completed Titan: The Life of John D. Rockefeller, Sr. by Ron Chernow and it is a wonderful read about the fascinating life and times of John D. Rockefeller. Ida Tarbell, one of the great muckraking writers and profilers who gained her fame while writing for McClure’s was personally impacted by Standard Oil’s brash business tactics.

Read more ›



Doing the Math – With the Tax Overhaul What’s Best Rent or Own?

rent or buy

With the tax overhaul now being law, I wanted to do a granular analysis of what the changes mean for those who own and those who rent in a high tax, high-cost state (California) and one residing in a low cost, low tax state (Texas).  

Read more ›



Housing – Is It The Best Long-Term Investment?

housing long-term investment

In some ways, it is understandable why the subprime meltdown took place. Prior to 2006 home prices in the United States in the post World War II era rarely, if ever, declined materially on a sustainable basis. Based on this rearview mirror modeling investors in mortgages were led to believe that default rates would be manageable and if they did default then losses would be negligible because recovery rates would be strong because home prices kept rising.

Read more ›



How Could The New Tax Laws Impact Housing?

Tax Housing

I typically wouldn’t discuss Tax Reform until it has passed since it would usually be speculative, I am making an exception given that many of the parameters are known and because of its potential impact on housing. The basis of the plan was to cut the corporate tax rate first and then work around the constraints that Senate rules and supposed deficit hawks impose on the process.

Read more ›



Insurance and Questionable Models Managing Risk

“I write because I don’t know what I think until I read what I say.”

― Flannery O’Connor

This blog post is pretty much just for me as insurance is not a very exciting topic but has great importance to all property owners,

Read more ›



The Separation Is In The Preparation For CWS

Preparation

It was quite a week of action for CWS, particularly for our risk management, safety, construction, operations, asset management, human resources, marketing, and maintenance teams. We have been having very early calls (at least for me on the west coast) every morning, including over the Labor Day weekend,

Read more ›