Last Thursday was an incredible day for virtually all markets. That is when the CPI report was released, and inflation came in a bit lighter than expected which in turn lit a fire under the bond and stock markets. The NASDAQ was up by more than 7%,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Labor, Manufacturing, Real Estate, Stock Market
1 Comment ↓
In my 35 years working at CWS and the years before that in college, when I first started taking economics classes, the most common term to find the equilibrium to determine optimal price has been “supply and demand.” I have also come to learn that words matter,
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It’s becoming even more clear that in order to stifle inflation, the Fed is going to have to induce a recession.
The following chart shows that it takes a recession to stamp out inflation or bring it down even more,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Real Estate
No Comments ↓
The evidence seems to be increasingly persuasive that economic growth is slowing materially. This is from the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which has a good track record of identifying turns in the business cycle. Its Weekly Leading Index is clearly showing a negative growth rate.
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I have always been fascinated by economic cycles. What I have learned over the years is that financial excesses that reverse into fear and revulsion are often catalysts for economic downturns. Real estate, commercial and/or residential, are often culprits because they are assets that can be leveraged which can magnify returns as well as often being influenced by tax advantages which can stimulate demand beyond its longer-term trend.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, News, Stock Market
No Comments ↓
Last week was brutal for retailers as major earnings announcements showed how they have been hit very hard by huge cost increases. Wal-Mart started the week off shocking the market with its very weak earnings outlook and then there was Target.
Its stock price got absolutely crushed in the wake of its results being released.
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There are things you can replace
And others you cannot
The time has come to weigh those things
This space is gettin’ hot
You know this space is gettin’
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, News, Real Estate
1 Comment ↓
At CWS we have been heavily focused on growth-oriented markets that have large in-migration due to a competitive cost of living, high quality of life, and pro-business environment. This has led us to be heavily concentrated in metro areas such as Austin,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, Trends, Uncategorized
2 Comments ↓
There’s no question now that the Federal Reserve is in full hawkish mode. The release last week of the minutes of the previous FOMC meeting left no doubt that they are on an aggressive path to squelch inflation through demand destruction and tightening financial conditions.
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There’s nothing like a challenge to focus one’s mind, attention, and organization of one’s life to meet that challenge. I was playing doubles last Tuesday night and right before the match, I received a text from someone who I play singles with fairly regularly.
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