Blog Archives

Sayonara Bonds

Japanese Bond Treasuries

The first quarter was incredibly ugly for bond investors, particularly those with exposure to longer-maturity ones. Bond investors were not happy as Treasuries generated the worst quarterly return since 1980.

A Bad Quarter for Bonds - Bloomberg Barclays treasury index fell 4% 1973 - 2020

So who were the big sellers of Treasuries?

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Stuck Ships and Chips

stuck ships in Suez Canal March 2021

[UPDATE] 3:00 PM Egypt – 6 AM PST the Ever Given was refloated and is on the move again. Credit is given to the full moon bringing the spring higher tides, 14 tug boats, and the 27,000 meters of sand removed. The following was written prior to this news.

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Some Like it Hot (Including Homeowners)

Home Ownership Jay Powell economy

I remember reading about how Peter Drucker knew to leave Germany after Hitler came to power. He said it was simple. He read Mein Kampf and took Hitler at his word. Since he was Jewish he had to assume he was a target and he determined that the risk of emigrating was far less than the risk of staying.

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Stimulus: Should I Save or Should I Go (Spend)

Stimulus save or spend

Economic growth is projected to increase quite substantially now that the $1.9 trillion stimulus has been passed. The following chart shows that economists are forecasting the strongest growth since the Reagan years.

US gross domestic product, change from 4th quarter to 4th quarter 1970 - 2020

Not surprisingly, a lot of this projected growth is predicated on the spending of built-up savings from multiple stimulus packages that have passed and been disbursed.

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I Won't Back Down - Powell and Yellen versus Wall Street

Jerome Powell Janet Yellen Wall Street

Well, I won’t back down

No, I won’t back down

You can stand me up at the gates of hell

But I won’t back down

No,

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A Race Against the Variant(s)

COVID Variants

When it comes to tracking Covid trends there are a few indicators to which I pay close attention. The first is hospitalizations as this is the variable that Governors are most closely watching (as well as ICU capacity) when it comes to implementing restrictions on businesses and personal behavior.

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Don't Be a Useful Idiot!

Useful Idiot

Warning: This post will probably upset just about everybody.

The election of 1800 was a bitterly contested one in which Thomas Jefferson defeated John Adams. According to History.com,

Jefferson Adams Useful Idiot

Though Jefferson and his running mate,

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Feliz Covidad - My End of 2020 Rant!

“Oh what a tangled web we weave.”

-Sir Walter Scott

With 2020 in the rearview mirror, we would all love to put Covid behind us. Unfortunately, the virus doesn’t work on a calendar.

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Learning from 9/11 to Speculate on the Future of Offices

Office air quality

Before action is taken it first must manifest as a thought, however fleeting. And, if actions are part of a more strategic thought process seeking to produce longer-term results, then thoughts are almost always translated into speech and/or writing in order to communicate the thinking and desired outcomes to others who may be necessary or valuable to help bring the desired outcome(s) about.

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Let's Get Real

COVID19 Vaccine Stimulus Jobs Numbers

The jobs report released on Friday was disappointing. 

Job growth has seriously slowed - economists react to 'disappointing' November employment report December 4, 2020

Disappointing Job Growth

Perhaps the report shouldn’t have been such a surprise on the downside based on this chart.

Meager Bounce for Job Hunting Searches in November 2020 Oct 1, 2019 - Feb 1, 2021

It would appear that job seekers are less confident about their prospects as they have significantly reduced their searches.

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