I wanted to return to the subject of housing and share some of the latest graphs related to the single-family and multifamily markets. I’ll start with the single-family sector.
Demand continues to be strong but it has decelerated from the torrid Covid-catalyzed pace of 2020.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Stock History, Stock Market
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The bond market detests Donald Trump’s approach to tariffs.
Equally importantly, it appears that much of the American public does as well. This chart should scare Donald Trump as independent voters are now very concerned about inflation spiking in the near future.
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This week is my first anniversary with Heather. It’s been quite a year of growth, challenges, wonderful experiences, and a lot of laughs. I’m looking forward to many more years of navigating a beautiful journey together. It’s not easy to find one amazing partner in life,
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In the wake of last Friday’s jobs report, Treasuries sold off, and yields rose, as this table shows.
Once again, there was a material difference between the ADP report, which came in weaker than expected,
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Last week may have finally been the week when the Fed aligned with markets that the peak in rates may be in for this cycle. The Fed held rates in what was initially categorized as a “hawkish pause.” It was during the Jay Powell press conference that the market started to believe that maybe the Fed was done raising rates.
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I was definitely in the camp that once the yield curve inverted, we were headed for a recession within a year or so. The spread between the 10-year Treasury and 2-year Treasury yields went negative (inverted) in early July 2022.
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Given China’s importance to the world economy, I wanted to focus this week’s post on some of the challenges China is facing in the short and long term.
China’s Economy
From an investor perspective, there is very little optimism that China’s economy will experience stronger growth after severely disappointing in the wake of its Covid reopening.
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You know Covid destroyed supply
Stimulus exploded demand
Inflation ran
The Fed cried
(What does the 10-year do?)
Break on through
To the other side
The 10-year Treasury yield broke through to a new cycle high and is now back above where it last peaked in 2008.
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Milton Friedman famously said that “Persistent inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” I have never been much of a monetarist because I thought there were many other factors influencing inflation, particularly demand factors, technological innovation, demographics, and the presence or absence of animal spirits among investors and capital providers.
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Last week we had our annual investor meeting. It was the first time we met in person since 2019. It was so nice to be together again. Despite not communicating the rosiest of messages, it was an evening that had great positive energy.
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