Last week we had our annual investor meeting. It was the first time we met in person since 2019. It was so nice to be together again. Despite not communicating the rosiest of messages, it was an evening that had great positive energy.
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Blog Archives
Getting in the Arena in Austin - Resilience
by 
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Investing, Labor, Personal, Psychology
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Investing, Labor, Personal, Psychology
No Comments ↓
One of the beneficial things about writing a blog each week is that it helps me prepare for presentations that I have to do periodically. Last week we had our national meeting in Austin for many of our CWS employees, and this week we have our annual investor meeting.
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Down with Housing
With the renewed runup in interest rates, I thought it would be appropriate to revisit the homeownership market via a frenzy of charts. Of course, all real estate is local, but these overall trends are pretty powerful, so it would be unusual for most markets to be immune to them.
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Office Building Woahs
2023 is already shaping up to be the year when the tsunami of office building defaults, foreclosures, and large losses for lenders and equity investors comes on with full force. Cracks have already appeared, and it is only going to get worse. The office building sector is impaired,
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Deconstructing Construction Employment
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Market Bubbles, News, Real Estate
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Market Bubbles, News, Real Estate
No Comments ↓
Give me a word
Give me a sign
Show me where to look
Tell me, what will I find?
What will I find?
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And Yet
by Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, Trends, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, Trends, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Last week was pretty important in confirming the trend change in interest rates and solidifying a slowdown in economic activity. Evidence of the economy slowing is reflected in more U.S. firms cutting their earnings guidance versus raising them.
As the above chart shows,
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A Race Against the Variant(s)
When it comes to tracking Covid trends there are a few indicators to which I pay close attention. The first is hospitalizations as this is the variable that Governors are most closely watching (as well as ICU capacity) when it comes to implementing restrictions on businesses and personal behavior.
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Going into Labor
Last week I wrote about how important the 2-Year Treasury note yield was to ascertain how close the Fed was to stopping its rate hikes and how high the Federal Funds Rate may reach. Based on past cycles and declaring that the 2-Year yield had peaked at 4.73% in November,
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Four Eyes on The Two-Year
Introductory note: I wear contacts and glasses, so that’s why I have four eyes paying close attention to the 2-Year Treasury Note yield.
The Federal Reserve has embarked on six tightening cycles since 1988, with the most recent having commenced in March 2022 and one that is still in process.
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From Housing to Labor and Back Again
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Labor, News, Real Estate
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Labor, News, Real Estate
No Comments ↓
I think this chart is what keeps Jay Powell up at night. If he were convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that we were still in the same low inflation regime that had been present for decades prior to Covid,
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