Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Investing, Labor, Personal, Psychology
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One of the beneficial things about writing a blog each week is that it helps me prepare for presentations that I have to do periodically. Last week we had our national meeting in Austin for many of our CWS employees, and this week we have our annual investor meeting.
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With the renewed runup in interest rates, I thought it would be appropriate to revisit the homeownership market via a frenzy of charts. Of course, all real estate is local, but these overall trends are pretty powerful, so it would be unusual for most markets to be immune to them.
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2023 is already shaping up to be the year when the tsunami of office building defaults, foreclosures, and large losses for lenders and equity investors comes on with full force. Cracks have already appeared, and it is only going to get worse. The office building sector is impaired,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Market Bubbles, News, Real Estate
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Give me a word
Give me a sign
Show me where to look
Tell me, what will I find?
What will I find?
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Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, Trends, Wealth
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Last week was pretty important in confirming the trend change in interest rates and solidifying a slowdown in economic activity. Evidence of the economy slowing is reflected in more U.S. firms cutting their earnings guidance versus raising them.
As the above chart shows,
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After Roneet’s passing, I wanted to channel my grief in ways that I could honor her memory and help contribute to bettering the world. I chose to back incredibly dynamic, bright, passionate, and innovative people with whom I had great respect that I thought Roneet would be proud of as well.
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When it comes to tracking Covid trends there are a few indicators to which I pay close attention. The first is hospitalizations as this is the variable that Governors are most closely watching (as well as ICU capacity) when it comes to implementing restrictions on businesses and personal behavior.
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Last week I wrote about how important the 2-Year Treasury note yield was to ascertain how close the Fed was to stopping its rate hikes and how high the Federal Funds Rate may reach. Based on past cycles and declaring that the 2-Year yield had peaked at 4.73% in November,
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Introductory note: I wear contacts and glasses, so that’s why I have four eyes paying close attention to the 2-Year Treasury Note yield.
The Federal Reserve has embarked on six tightening cycles since 1988, with the most recent having commenced in March 2022 and one that is still in process.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Labor, News, Real Estate
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I think this chart is what keeps Jay Powell up at night. If he were convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that we were still in the same low inflation regime that had been present for decades prior to Covid,
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