Blog Archives

Talking Rates in Abu Dhabi

interest rate trilemma

When I was in Abu Dhabi, I was on a panel for one of the breakout sessions focusing on global interest rates. And while there was a resource from Oxford Economics brought in to give a presentation, I couldn’t resist making my opinions and beliefs known since interest rates are one of my obsessions.

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GCC in the GCC

GCC in the GCC

My middle name starts with a C, which makes my initials GCC. It just so happens that last week I was in a GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) country. I was in Abu Dhabi and Dubai for a conference hosted by a global real estate organization I joined this year.

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Confusion and the Need for Second-Level Thinking

Inflation cross currents

Note: I was so absorbed in writing this blog while waiting for my connecting flight home at the Phoenix airport that I only realized after it was too late that I was at the wrong gate and that my flight was changed to a different gate in another terminal.

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Lessons from David Ogilvy

David Ogilvy

David Ogilvy was the founder of the legendary advertising firm Ogilvy & Mather. He is considered one of the great executives and thought leaders in the history of advertising. He served as the inspiration for the character of Don Draper in Mad Men. 

Ogilvy was born in 1911 to an upper-class British Family and was admitted to Oxford but was expelled for poor academic performance.

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Capping off a Good Week

Rate Cap

After the chaos in Japan led to a pretty massive unwind of the yen carry trade, which spilled over to stock market losses and Treasury market gains (yields dropping), last week reversed some of that carnage. The stock market rebounded sharply, and bond yields went up,

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London Calling with a Little Amsterdam Thrown in

Amsterdam

Last week, I made my annual pilgrimage to London to meet with some of our insurance carriers and prospective ones as well. We have approximately 15 different companies providing us with different layers of coverage. We have a primary layer that covers first losses after deductibles and then secondary/excess layers.

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Office Building Woahs

Office Building Woahs

2023 is already shaping up to be the year when the tsunami of office building defaults, foreclosures, and large losses for lenders and equity investors comes on with full force. Cracks have already appeared, and it is only going to get worse. The office building sector is impaired,

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Deconstructing Construction Employment

Construction Employment

Give me a word

Give me a sign

Show me where to look

Tell me, what will I find?

What will I find?

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Turning a Liability into Asset via the Sale of a 100 Year Old House

Starting in 2012, my late wife and I began to invest in residential real estate beyond our primary residence and CWS investments. In 2013 Roneet decided that she wanted to have a small weekend place in Laguna Beach. I thought it was an idea definitely worth exploring,

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From Housing to Labor and Back Again

From Housing to Labor and Back Again

I think this chart is what keeps Jay Powell up at night. If he were convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that we were still in the same low inflation regime that had been present for decades prior to Covid,

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