The Philosophical Investor's Blog

Miss Truss(t)'s Hail Mary

Miss Liz Truss(t)'s Hail Mary B

FT Alphaville September 29, 2022 Twitter

The value of a country’s currency is a good barometer of its economic policies, human capital, competitiveness, freedoms, growth prospects, etc. From this chart, one can see that Great Britain has been on a long decline from a competitiveness standpoint versus the United States.

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Lag Effects and the Kamikazi Fed

Kamakazi Fed

One of the things that I periodically do with my trainer are exercises that focus on getting my heart rate to 80% of its maximum after starting at 75%. It’s done to stress the heart and to see how quickly it can recover. I have used an exercise bike and versa climber to facilitate this,

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Rafa's Magnificent Mallorca

Rafa Nadal Tennis Centre Gary Carmell

I had the great pleasure of spending five days on the incredibly beautiful island of Mallorca, which is part of Spain but south of the mainland. The main purpose for going there was to take tennis lessons over three days at the Rafa Nadal Academy.

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To Russia with Sanctions

Russia Sanctions Russian Economic Sanctions

I have had somewhat of a morbid fascination trying to ascertain the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and everyday life. Information hasn’t been that easy to come by. The most public evidence that Russia has been holding up comes from still robust revenues from energy exports and the surprising strength of the ruble.

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Half Way There? Investing Legends and Longevity

Investing Legends

Labor Day is always a good time to reflect on people who love what they do. The recent passing of famed investor Julian Robertson at the age of 90 got me thinking about other legendary investors who also lived very long lives, including those still living.

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Powell's Conundrum: Demand and Supply

Jay Powell Conundrum

In my 35 years working at CWS and the years before that in college, when I first started taking economics classes, the most common term to find the equilibrium to determine optimal price has been “supply and demand.” I have also come to learn that words matter,

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Labor, Housing, and Fed Policy

It’s becoming even more clear that in order to stifle inflation, the Fed is going to have to induce a recession.

The following chart shows that it takes a recession to stamp out inflation or bring it down even more,

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Laboring over Labor

Labor Manufacturing

We finally had a CPI report that the market responded favorably to. The prior six releases led to market losses. Last week’s report led to a nice gain.

Markets celebrated July inflation figures S&P 500 response to US CPI figures in 2022

As an aside, this chart shows how incredibly fast margin debt went up and now down during the bear market that just took place.

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Liquidate Labor

Jobs Labor 3.5% Unemployment

“Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate. It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted,

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In Search of Goldilocks

Goldilocks economy

Last week the Fed raised short-term interest rates by 0.75%. This was entirely expected by the market. Given that this was already priced in, it stands to reason that the only source of new information would be what the Fed would communicate in its statement that’s released in conjunction with announcing the interest rate hike along with Chairman Jay Powell’s press conference.

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