The Philosophical Investor's Blog

Laboring over Labor

Labor Manufacturing

We finally had a CPI report that the market responded favorably to. The prior six releases led to market losses. Last week’s report led to a nice gain.

Markets celebrated July inflation figures S&P 500 response to US CPI figures in 2022

As an aside, this chart shows how incredibly fast margin debt went up and now down during the bear market that just took place.

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Liquidate Labor

Jobs Labor 3.5% Unemployment

“Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate. It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted,

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In Search of Goldilocks

Goldilocks economy

Last week the Fed raised short-term interest rates by 0.75%. This was entirely expected by the market. Given that this was already priced in, it stands to reason that the only source of new information would be what the Fed would communicate in its statement that’s released in conjunction with announcing the interest rate hike along with Chairman Jay Powell’s press conference.

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China Syndrome

China Syndrome

The evidence seems to be increasingly persuasive that economic growth is slowing materially. This is from the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which has a good track record of identifying turns in the business cycle. Its Weekly Leading Index is clearly showing a negative growth rate.

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The Novak and Nick Economy

Nick Kyrgios Novak Djokovic Recession

I greatly enjoyed watching the Wimbledon finals between Novak Djokovic and Nick Kyrgios. Novak has won numerous Wimbledon championships, while Nick has never been in the final of a major despite having enormous talent. Djokovic is incredibly disciplined, committed, consistent, and has amazing mental fortitude and problem-solving skills.

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Monetary Squeeze and Industrial Disease

Monetary Squeeze and Industrial Disease

Yeah, now the workforce is disgusted, downs tools, walks

Innocence is injured, experience just talks

Everyone seeks damages, everyone agrees that

These are classic symptoms of a monetary squeeze

On ITV and BBC they talk about the curse

Philosophy is useless,

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Regime Change

Fed regime change

The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs Wade understandably elicited a huge wave of outcry (pro and con). One of the most controversial aspects of the decision was the seeming disregard for Court precedent and how it was perceived by legal experts to have been tossed aside.

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Divining the Futures

Divining the Futures

I have a great-nephew that is about to turn one in July and he and his parents, my niece and her husband, live in the Bay Area. They came down to Orange County to stay with their parents (my sister-in-law and brother-in-law)  for Father’s Day weekend.

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Sorry Joe

recession sorry joe

I feel for Joe Biden. I really do. No President is solely responsible for economic ills or gains as there’s a continuum that carries over from previous administrations and policies. There are too many forces and variables in play to ascribe blame or credit entirely to an administration.

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(And) So it Goes

Gary Grateful Dead June 2022 Palo Alto

Preface: This turned out far longer than I was expecting but so it goes.

One of the more profound lyrics of the Grateful Dead is “Once in a while you can get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.” That has played out throughout much of my life with epiphanies and insights from unexpected sources that have altered my path,

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