The Philosophical Investor's Blog

Deconstructing Construction Employment

Construction Employment

Give me a word

Give me a sign

Show me where to look

Tell me, what will I find?

What will I find?

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And Yet

And Yet Labor Economy Government Bonds

Last week was pretty important in confirming the trend change in interest rates and solidifying a slowdown in economic activity. Evidence of the economy slowing is reflected in more U.S. firms cutting their earnings guidance versus raising them.

Number of US firms with corporate guidance announcements in 2022

As the above chart shows,

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Turning a Liability into Asset via the Sale of a 100 Year Old House

Starting in 2012, my late wife and I began to invest in residential real estate beyond our primary residence and CWS investments. In 2013 Roneet decided that she wanted to have a small weekend place in Laguna Beach. I thought it was an idea definitely worth exploring,

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Going into Labor

Labor Jobs Inflation Employment 2-Year Treasury Notes

Last week I wrote about how important the 2-Year Treasury note yield was to ascertain how close the Fed was to stopping its rate hikes and how high the Federal Funds Rate may reach. Based on past cycles and declaring that the 2-Year yield had peaked at 4.73% in November,

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A Need for Speed in 2023

speed reading

With 2022 coming to an end and 2023 now upon us, I thought I would reflect on a great tool that I have been using that leaves me feeling that I am going into 2023 with some momentum. I also had a couple of insights that I applied toward the end of the year that I will target to discuss in next week’s blog. 

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Four Eyes on The Two-Year

Four Eyes on The 2 Year Treasury

Introductory note: I wear contacts and glasses, so that’s why I have four eyes paying close attention to the 2-Year Treasury Note yield.

The Federal Reserve has embarked on six tightening cycles since 1988, with the most recent having commenced in March 2022 and one that is still in process.

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From Housing to Labor and Back Again

From Housing to Labor and Back Again

I think this chart is what keeps Jay Powell up at night. If he were convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that we were still in the same low inflation regime that had been present for decades prior to Covid,

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Riding a False Premise: The Hard Rain Scenario

Never did that before

I saw ten thousand talkers whose tongues were all broken

I saw guns and sharp swords in the hands of young children

And it’s a hard, and it’s a hard,

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Working from the Solution: Lessons from Firing the Pool Guy

Pool Guy Fired

I’m usually a very patient person, and sometimes, it’s to my detriment. It can lead me to tolerate situations longer than I should. On the other hand, when I have reached the end of my rope, then watch out as I can be quite decisive in taking action to change the situation,

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Only Time Will Tell: Hedging Ahead in the Expectations of a Shifting Fed

Only Time Will Tell_ Hedging Ahead in the Expectations of a Shifting Fed

I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I’ll pivot back to Jay Powell and the Fed from Pete Townshend and The Who. Two of my favorite subjects 🙂

The minutes of the Fed meetings that took place November 1-2 were released last week.

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