The Philosophical Investor's Blog

China Syndrome

China Syndrome

The evidence seems to be increasingly persuasive that economic growth is slowing materially. This is from the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which has a good track record of identifying turns in the business cycle. Its Weekly Leading Index is clearly showing a negative growth rate.

Read more ›



The Novak and Nick Economy

Nick Kyrgios Novak Djokovic Recession

I greatly enjoyed watching the Wimbledon finals between Novak Djokovic and Nick Kyrgios. Novak has won numerous Wimbledon championships, while Nick has never been in the final of a major despite having enormous talent. Djokovic is incredibly disciplined, committed, consistent, and has amazing mental fortitude and problem-solving skills.

Read more ›



Monetary Squeeze and Industrial Disease

Monetary Squeeze and Industrial Disease

Yeah, now the workforce is disgusted, downs tools, walks

Innocence is injured, experience just talks

Everyone seeks damages, everyone agrees that

These are classic symptoms of a monetary squeeze

On ITV and BBC they talk about the curse

Philosophy is useless,

Read more ›



Regime Change

Fed regime change

The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs Wade understandably elicited a huge wave of outcry (pro and con). One of the most controversial aspects of the decision was the seeming disregard for Court precedent and how it was perceived by legal experts to have been tossed aside.

Read more ›



Divining the Futures

Divining the Futures

I have a great-nephew that is about to turn one in July and he and his parents, my niece and her husband, live in the Bay Area. They came down to Orange County to stay with their parents (my sister-in-law and brother-in-law)  for Father’s Day weekend.

Read more ›



Sorry Joe

recession sorry joe

I feel for Joe Biden. I really do. No President is solely responsible for economic ills or gains as there’s a continuum that carries over from previous administrations and policies. There are too many forces and variables in play to ascribe blame or credit entirely to an administration.

Read more ›



(And) So it Goes

Gary Grateful Dead June 2022 Palo Alto

Preface: This turned out far longer than I was expecting but so it goes.

One of the more profound lyrics of the Grateful Dead is “Once in a while you can get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.” That has played out throughout much of my life with epiphanies and insights from unexpected sources that have altered my path,

Read more ›



Stocks Drop and Jobs Contract

Stocks Drop and Jobs Contract

One can see from the following charts from Sentimentrader.com that the last 100 trading days have been one of the worst periods in terms of stock returns in modern history. 

Stock History 12-31-1946 12-31-2001

And while the jury is still out as to whether we will have a recession over the next year,

Read more ›



Housing Economic Dependency: A Tale of Two Countries

I have always been fascinated by economic cycles. What I have learned over the years is that financial excesses that reverse into fear and revulsion are often catalysts for economic downturns. Real estate, commercial and/or residential, are often culprits because they are assets that can be leveraged which can magnify returns as well as often being influenced by tax advantages which can stimulate demand beyond its longer-term trend.

Read more ›



Off Target

manufacturers the Fed inflation off target Jay Powell

Last week was brutal for retailers as major earnings announcements showed how they have been hit very hard by huge cost increases. Wal-Mart started the week off shocking the market with its very weak earnings outlook and then there was Target.

Target shares sink 25% after company says high costs, inventory woes hit profits

Its stock price got absolutely crushed in the wake of its results being released.

Read more ›



Categories

Free Insights