Japan has been my model for why I think interest rates will stay low. Its rapidly aging society has led to a shrinking pool of labor over the last two decades which has led to less consumption and more savings. In addition, public spending has increased significantly to help keep the economy growing in the face of strong demographic headwinds.
Inflation is clearly one of the hottest topics for investors in particular and society more generally as the following chart shows. Core inflation has not moved commensurately with the exploding interest in the topic.
The following charts show why inflation is such a hot topic.
I’ve written many times over the years regarding my interest in the subject of mastery. I have great admiration for people who go deep into their craft and come to know it so well that they continuously find an edge to enable them to be successful over the long term and be able to persevere through the inevitable adversities that life throws our way.
Although CWS is largely an owner/operator of apartment communities, we have been developing new communities for over 25 years. Approximately 15% of our portfolio consists of properties we have developed. Given the large amount of capital looking to own apartments and the compression in cap rates,
Although I’m in the camp that the Fed will stick to its word and not raise short-term interest rates until after 2023 at the earliest, the market is betting differently. Rather than focusing on when the Fed will start raising rates, let’s assume that they will.
The first quarter was incredibly ugly for bond investors, particularly those with exposure to longer-maturity ones. Bond investors were not happy as Treasuries generated the worst quarterly return since 1980.
[UPDATE] 3:00 PM Egypt – 6 AM PST the Ever Given was refloated and is on the move again. Credit is given to the full moon bringing the spring higher tides, 14 tug boats, and the 27,000 meters of sand removed. The following was written prior to this news.
I remember reading about how Peter Drucker knew to leave Germany after Hitler came to power. He said it was simple. He read Mein Kampf and took Hitler at his word. Since he was Jewish he had to assume he was a target and he determined that the risk of emigrating was far less than the risk of staying.
Economic growth is projected to increase quite substantially now that the $1.9 trillion stimulus has been passed. The following chart shows that economists are forecasting the strongest growth since the Reagan years.
Not surprisingly, a lot of this projected growth is predicated on the spending of built-up savings from multiple stimulus packages that have passed and been disbursed.
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