Blog Archives

Will The Fed Slash Interest Rates? When the Levee Breaks

Interest Rates cut 2019

As the following headline shows, interest rates fell quite sharply on Friday to current cycle lows in the wake of a very weak non-farm employment report.

10-year Treasury yield plunges

One can see how inverted the 10-year Treasury note yield has become versus the 3-month T-bill yield in the following chart.

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Stable Genius?

Stable Genius Donald Trump

I read a very interesting theory about Donald Trump‘s master strategy when it comes to the trade war with China. Trump believes that he can win a trade war, but he can’t do it alone. He sees that the Chinese are reacting with an aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus to counter the negative impact of the trade war on their economy and believes the United States needs to do the same.

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German Negativity

German Yield

Mohamed El-Erian, the former CEO of PIMCO, said recently on CNBC that if you want to know what’s going to happen to U.S. long-term interest rates, then all you have to do is look to Germany. And so that is what I did.

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Fire My Metaphor for Earnings News: Catalytic Regeneration

Canyon Fire earnings news

There’s a regional park near my house that I like to hike. It has beautiful scenery, a lot of hills, and a number of people on the trails that conveys a feeling of community and self-care. Its topography and large size allow for many different trail options in terms of length,

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CWS at 50: How We Have Survived and Prospered for 50 Years

CWS Investors

Last week we had our annual investor meeting for CWS. This was a huge milestone as we celebrated our 50th anniversary. The attendance was a record with more than 600 people taking time out of their busy lives to join us for dinner and presentations from the CWS principals.

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Obsessed by Curves: Yield Curves that Is

yield curves

This is going to be a short blog post given my travel schedule last week. I have been talking for awhile now about the narrowing yield curve and the prospects for it inverting. The 10-year Treasury finally went lower than the 3-month Treasury bill which Federal Reserve researchers say is the best indicator for telegraphing a future recession.

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Sorry Jack: Strong Economic Headwinds - Now What?

strong economic headwinds

Last week was one of those data weeks that corroborated the bond market’s view that the world is facing some strong economic headwinds. The news on the international front was particularly dismal with Chinese exports dropping by 20%, and German factory orders contracting as well.

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Strangers Stopping Strangers: 7 Benefits of CEO's Having Hobbies

“Strangers stopping strangers

Just to shake their hands”

-Jerry Garcia & Robert Hunter

I recently went to listen to a Grateful Dead cover band at a local bar/restaurant. I was immediately impressed by how good they were and the joyous atmosphere they helped create.

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In Sickness and Health

sick

It was a year ago that Roneet and I, along with her parents went on a trip of a lifetime. We took a five-week cruise that stopped in 11 countries in Africa and Asia. I am so glad that we took that trip as we were able to spend such a glorious time together and I ended up with such beautiful memories and hundreds of pictures to remind me of our special time.

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Mastery Often Starts at Home - Proud Father

Embed from Getty Images

In the melancholy song Black Peter, Jerry Garcia sings:

See here how everything

Lead up to this day

And it’s just like

Any other day

That’s ever been

This post is about a proud father acknowledging his daughter,

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