Blog Archives

The Magic Mountain and the Return of Power

Sovereign Dominance

My decision to begin reading Thomas Mann’s The Magic Mountain was inspired, at least in part, by my late father. I have a distinct childhood memory of him reading this enormous book and, perhaps even more vividly, of the satisfaction he took in having finished it.

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Tempus Probat Omnia: The Price of Capital

Cost of Capital

One of the great challenges of investing is resisting the temptation to reduce a complex world to a single explanation. We crave narratives because they make decision-making easier. Interest rates are rising because inflation is rising. Apartment values are falling because the Federal Reserve raised rates.

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The Day the Buffer Snapped: Why Long-Term Rates, Credit Spreads, and the Yen Carry Trade Exploded

The Day the Buffer Snapped: Why Long-Term Rates, Credit Spreads, and the Yen Carry Trade Exploded

For four decades—from Paul Volcker’s inflation-crushing rate peak in 1981 all the way to 2022—investors operated in a world defined by a single, unbreakable trend: long-term interest rates were moving down.

Throughout those 40 years,

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When the Price of Capital Sends a Warning

real interest rates

For much of the past decade, investors and borrowers became conditioned to believe that interest rates were primarily a function of Federal Reserve policy. If the Fed lowered short-term rates, longer-term borrowing costs would eventually follow. If inflation moderated, bond yields would decline. That framework was never completely accurate,

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Banksy, Bond Yields, and the Art of Productive Paranoia

Gary and Heather Paris Sept 10, 2026

While attending the GRI conference in Paris recently, I found myself reflecting on a disconnect between what I was seeing with my own eyes and what I know higher interest rates are intended to accomplish.

Everywhere Heather and I went,

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Falling Slowly, Rising Rapidly

Glen Hansard

Last week brought the heartbreaking news that Glen Hansard had died in a motorcycle accident at the age of 56. Like millions of others, I first came to know his work through Once and the timeless song “Falling Slowly.”

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Herbert Simon at the Loan Desk

Herbert Simon
Why “Good Enough” Is Winning in the Age of Execution

I recently finished listening to Inside the Box, a book that explores how constraints—properly understood—don’t limit creativity, but instead give rise to it.

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To Fix or Float? That Is the Question

Fixed or Float multifamily financing
The Great Financing Question: From a Decade of Floating-Rate Success to a New Era of Uncertainty

One of the most important strategic decisions we make as multifamily owners is not simply what properties to buy, but how to finance them.

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The Super El Niño That Could Rewrite 2026

El Niño

Meteorologists are currently staring at climate models with a sense of profound unease. Recent projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggest that Pacific sea surface temperatures are not just rising; they are threatening to move “off the charts”. Some models predict temperature increases exceeding 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) above average by the fall of 2026—a level of warming that would signify one of the most powerful El Niño events in recorded history.

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Houston - Gaining Energy?

Houston Oil Energy

Last week was quite busy, so for this post, I decided to turn to Copilot to help me produce the output. Over the past year, our acquisitions at CWS have been heavily concentrated on properties in the Houston area. Of course,

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