I have a great-nephew that is about to turn one in July and he and his parents, my niece and her husband, live in the Bay Area. They came down to Orange County to stay with their parents (my sister-in-law and brother-in-law) for Father’s Day weekend.
I feel for Joe Biden. I really do. No President is solely responsible for economic ills or gains as there’s a continuum that carries over from previous administrations and policies. There are too many forces and variables in play to ascribe blame or credit entirely to an administration.
I have always been fascinated by economic cycles. What I have learned over the years is that financial excesses that reverse into fear and revulsion are often catalysts for economic downturns. Real estate, commercial and/or residential, are often culprits because they are assets that can be leveraged which can magnify returns as well as often being influenced by tax advantages which can stimulate demand beyond its longer-term trend.
Last week was brutal for retailers as major earnings announcements showed how they have been hit very hard by huge cost increases. Wal-Mart started the week off shocking the market with its very weak earnings outlook and then there was Target.
Its stock price got absolutely crushed in the wake of its results being released.
I love the word enantiodromia. Maybe it’s because of how esoteric it is or how intelligent it makes me seem (even though I can barely pronounce it). I think the real reason I like it is that it captures a very powerful tendency in people and in cycles for people and nature to shift to their opposites.
There’s no question now that the Federal Reserve is in full hawkish mode. The release last week of the minutes of the previous FOMC meeting left no doubt that they are on an aggressive path to squelch inflation through demand destruction and tightening financial conditions.
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