Blog Archives

Hitting the Wall? Is The Fed About to Make a Mistake?

Fed Interest Rate Hike

With last week being dedicated to a much-enjoyed vacation, I thought I would let pictures do more of the talking this week.

Not surprisingly, the Fed increased its benchmark rate by 0.25%. The market fully priced this in. What is more surprising is the Fed telegraphing two more hikes in 2017 and commencing a slow reduction in its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities beginning at the end of the year.

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Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Trends, Wealth


Deep Domain Knowledge – Finding Your Calling

niece Dr. Wolf - May 2017

A few weeks ago I referenced Bob Dylan’s recommendation that we find our calling. I saw this in action last week and had this supplemented by some of the things I read. I had the pleasure to go to Philadelphia to attend the graduation of my niece from the University of Pennsylvania where she was awarded a Ph.D.

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Posted in Advice, Economy, Investing, News, People, Personal, Uncategorized, Wealth


Dynamic Disequilibrium – New Era in Retail REIT’s and Housing

Housing Retail REIT

Key economic data and stock prices almost always change before the narrative does. Although the housing meltdown didn’t really come into force until 2007, new home sales had already peaked in 2005 and this corresponded with the stock price of home builders hitting all-time highs. The first chart shows new home sales topping out in July 2015 and the same for Lennar’s stock price as the second chart depicts.

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Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth


Shifting Into Reverse – Where is The Auto Market Headed?

Auto

Auto sales have been one of the real bright areas of the economy ever since the “Cash for Clunkers” program ended and sales dropped back down to recessionary levels. The following chart shows how they have grown by approximately 100% from trough to peak.

Auto Sales

US Total Auto Sales

Unfortunately,

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Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth


I Didn’t Build That!

Build

I have to confess that I’m feeling a bit guilty about something. A few weeks ago someone sent me a message on LinkedIn within 15 minutes (if not less) of me accepting his connection request. My usual experience with that one-two punch is not very favorable as it often relates to someone wanting to sell me something,

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Posted in Economy, Investing, News, Trends, Wealth


Man Up Revisited – Winners Like Apple and Amazon

Apple Amazon.com

Last week I discussed a fascinating study that asked whether stocks outperformed T-Bills. Surprisingly, the answer was that most stocks do not and the bulk of stock market returns have come from an incredibly small number of companies that have produced the estimated $32 trillion in wealth (returns in excess of T-Bills) between 1926 and 2015.

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Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth


Bessembinder: A Fascinating But Skewed Study

Bessembinder

In reading @jesse_livermore’s latest and always brilliant missive/analysis, he referenced and linked to a study by Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder entitled “Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?” It seems like a pretty ludicrous question since our capitalist system is supposed to reward risk takers.

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Posted in Economy, Investing, News, Wealth


It’s Got to Get Better in a Little While…Or Does it?

better

Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio have both come out and said that despite America being such a strong country and performing well economically, not all is right when looking under the hood.

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Posted in Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Wealth


The Manipulative Function: George Soros Theory of Reflexivity

I recently re-read George Soros’ lectures at Central European University from October 2009. He gave five of them and they will be something I return to over time. Soros’ most formative experience was as a 14-year-old in 1944 and having escaped the Nazis out of Hungary.

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Posted in Advice, Economy, News, People, Wealth


I Don’t Buy It So I’m Selling It

Selling

I probably should have written this two weeks ago but I wanted to finish my Munger trilogy. I dislike when hindsight bias is used and prefer when people tell me when they are going to do something or just did and the reasons for it so that the decision can be evaluated objectively.

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Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Uncategorized, Wealth


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