Blog Archives

Divining the Futures

Divining the Futures

I have a great-nephew that is about to turn one in July and he and his parents, my niece and her husband, live in the Bay Area. They came down to Orange County to stay with their parents (my sister-in-law and brother-in-law)  for Father’s Day weekend.

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Sorry Joe

recession sorry joe

I feel for Joe Biden. I really do. No President is solely responsible for economic ills or gains as there’s a continuum that carries over from previous administrations and policies. There are too many forces and variables in play to ascribe blame or credit entirely to an administration.

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Stocks Drop and Jobs Contract

Stocks Drop and Jobs Contract

One can see from the following charts from Sentimentrader.com that the last 100 trading days have been one of the worst periods in terms of stock returns in modern history. 

Stock History 12-31-1946 12-31-2001

And while the jury is still out as to whether we will have a recession over the next year,

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Housing Economic Dependency: A Tale of Two Countries

I have always been fascinated by economic cycles. What I have learned over the years is that financial excesses that reverse into fear and revulsion are often catalysts for economic downturns. Real estate, commercial and/or residential, are often culprits because they are assets that can be leveraged which can magnify returns as well as often being influenced by tax advantages which can stimulate demand beyond its longer-term trend.

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Off Target

manufacturers the Fed inflation off target Jay Powell

Last week was brutal for retailers as major earnings announcements showed how they have been hit very hard by huge cost increases. Wal-Mart started the week off shocking the market with its very weak earnings outlook and then there was Target.

Target shares sink 25% after company says high costs, inventory woes hit profits

Its stock price got absolutely crushed in the wake of its results being released.

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Rage Against the Machine

The Federal Reserve Rage at the Machine

enantiodromia

I love the word enantiodromia. Maybe it’s because of how esoteric it is or how intelligent it makes me seem (even though I can barely pronounce it). I think the real reason I like it is that it captures a very powerful tendency in people and in cycles for people and nature to shift to their opposites.

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Re-Energized

Energy

A little over six months ago I wrote about what was for a long time a disastrous investment that I made in a coal company that I purchased prior to Covid and subsequently dropped 80%. The post discussed many of the compelling reasons to hang on to the company because coal producers were extremely well-positioned to capitalize on very favorable supply/demand fundamentals.

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This Space Is Getting Hot

Hot interest rates

There are things you can replace

And others you cannot

The time has come to weigh those things

This space is gettin’ hot

You know this space is gettin’

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Random Real Estate Musings Trends and Topics

Real Estate Mortgage increase

At CWS we have been heavily focused on growth-oriented markets that have large in-migration due to a competitive cost of living, high quality of life, and pro-business environment. This has led us to be heavily concentrated in metro areas such as Austin,

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Recession Watch

Recession Watch

There’s no question now that the Federal Reserve is in full hawkish mode. The release last week of the minutes of the previous FOMC meeting left no doubt that they are on an aggressive path to squelch inflation through demand destruction and tightening financial conditions.

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