Blog Archives

A Graphical Extravaganza with a Little Hemingway Thrown in

I thought I would return to a post focusing on charts that I found compelling this past week. The Fed is now telegraphing an imminent slowdown of its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The reaction of bond investors led to a narrowing of the yield curve.

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Energy Crunch - The Co(a)ld Hard Facts and Opportunities

Energy Crunch - The Co(a)ld Hard Facts and Opportunities

One can see that natural gas has gained the most market share of the world energy supply between 1973-2019. Oil’s share has dropped quite significantly during this same time frame. With that being said the second chart shows that it has still grown materially but not nearly as much as natural gas and nuclear.

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Soar with your Strengths, Not your Passions: More Advice for your Kids

public speaking Soar with your Strengths, Not your Passions

A few years ago I did 23andMe. I was not only curious about my ancestry but what medical risks might be present based on my DNA. Fortunately, I don’t appear to be predisposed to any serious ailments. Over the course of its many years in business,

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The China Syndrome - Contrarian Real Estate Opportunity? Perilous Times

Evergrande China Syndrome

China has been capturing a lot of headlines with the implosion of the country’s largest homebuilder, Evergrande. It has an estimated $300 billion in liabilities and approximately 1.4 million homes under construction or with deposits obligating them to build homes in the future.

Evergrande Group Insolvency

This is a big deal as a disorderly collapse of the Evergrande Group can have huge ramifications on the economy and social stability.

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Afghan Realities and Applications to Planning

Taliban Afghanistan

One of the reasons I am such a big fan of Charlie Munger is that he is ruthlessly realistic. He and Warren Buffett believe that the key to Berkshire Hathaway’s incredible success is that they are built for rationality.

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What Is Top of Mind? Housing or Inflation?

Housing Inflation

The answer? See for yourself, is it inflation or housing or both?

If Google Trends are any indication then inflation has been a top-of-mind topic.

Inflation

CPI – Consumer Price Index

This is not surprising as one has to be a survivalist living far away from civilization and fully self-sufficient to have not been impacted by rising prices and slower delivery and service times.

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Labor Market Inflection Point

unemployment

Last week was my 34th anniversary at CWS. I have been so fortunate to have had the opportunity to work with so many wonderful people over all of these years and to be blessed with my amazing partners Steve and Mike.

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An Improving Labor Market and A Fascinating Real Time Experiment

Labor Market Employment

I started getting into the flow and writing about some epiphanies I had on the tennis court that I was planning on sharing this week. And then the jobs report came out on Friday and I saw the reaction of the bond market to what appeared to be a strong report and I felt like I had to do one more chart-oriented blog.

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Keep your Eyes on the Road but Never Lose Sight of the Destination

Interest Rates Keep your Eyes on the Road

Investing has some parallels with driving. It’s important to have a destination that keeps you on course. I think of the destination as financial goals rooted in thoughtful consideration of powerful trends upon which to capitalize such that the wind can be put at your back while also being fully cognizant of what exposures you may have that can lead to a permanent loss of capital based on shorter-term issues arising.

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You Can't Divorce the Observer from the Observed

separating the observed from the observer

I keep focusing my blog posts on economic data via chart representation because we’re in one of those times that needs to be monitored closely for trend reversals (disinflation to inflation) and a change in the Fed’s reaction function (supporting Main Street vs Wall Street).

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