The first quarter was incredibly ugly for bond investors, particularly those with exposure to longer-maturity ones. Bond investors were not happy as Treasuries generated the worst quarterly return since 1980.
So who were the big sellers of Treasuries?
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Economic growth is projected to increase quite substantially now that the $1.9 trillion stimulus has been passed. The following chart shows that economists are forecasting the strongest growth since the Reagan years.
Not surprisingly, a lot of this projected growth is predicated on the spending of built-up savings from multiple stimulus packages that have passed and been disbursed.
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When it comes to tracking Covid trends there are a few indicators to which I pay close attention. The first is hospitalizations as this is the variable that Governors are most closely watching (as well as ICU capacity) when it comes to implementing restrictions on businesses and personal behavior.
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“I am a man more sinned against than sinning”
― William Shakespeare, King Lear
Last week’s events made me think about how important it is to understand people’s personality profiles if you are going to be relying on them.
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“Oh what a tangled web we weave.”
-Sir Walter Scott
With 2020 in the rearview mirror, we would all love to put Covid behind us. Unfortunately, the virus doesn’t work on a calendar.
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Before action is taken it first must manifest as a thought, however fleeting. And, if actions are part of a more strategic thought process seeking to produce longer-term results, then thoughts are almost always translated into speech and/or writing in order to communicate the thinking and desired outcomes to others who may be necessary or valuable to help bring the desired outcome(s) about.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Manufacturing, News, Trends, Wealth
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This week will be another one focused on charts and graphs that caught my attention. The emphasis will be on the story of the Fed remaining very dovish in spite of what appears to be some pockets of economic strength (e.g. housing, commodities, semiconductors),
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Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Manufacturing, News, Stock Market, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
1 Comment ↓
The jobs report released on Friday was disappointing.
Disappointing Job Growth
Perhaps the report shouldn’t have been such a surprise on the downside based on this chart.
It would appear that job seekers are less confident about their prospects as they have significantly reduced their searches.
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The following chart shows that people are the most comfortable returning to work within a month or less as compared to other activities. The percentage is 65% so there is still a substantial minority who are still concerned about returning to their previous work environment.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Fiscal stimulus has now started to contract while the Fed’s monetary support for the economy has tightened quite significantly over the last three months. See what the following charts show:
The following is from The Washington Post and shows how significant the support for the unemployed has been and how it will drop materially if no stimulus package is passed.
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