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O(y) IL VEY

oil vey

Yet again we have witnessed something unprecedented. As the following two charts show, we have never had negative oil prices until last week. Oil has never been cheaper on an inflation-adjusted basis than it is today.

Cost of a barrel of oil in nominal terms 1870 - 2020

Cost of a barrel of oil in real USD terms 1870 - 2020

Source: Marketwatch

And while under “normal” circumstances this would be great for the consumer,

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Revisiting the Spanish Flu: What Can a Dire Pandemic Look Like?

Pandemics

I’m admittedly obsessed by pandemics. I’ve been listening to the course on the Black Death via the Great Courses, I was in China at the tail end of SARS in 2003 and was intensely focused on what life was like during that time there, and of course,

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Random Musings and Wonderful Memory Triggers

Memory Musing

This is one of those weeks where I don’t have anything pressing I feel I need to convey or work through to gain clarity so I thought I would share some random thoughts related to the coronavirus, surveying data, economic reports, and a health tip. 

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And Kobe Lived

Kobe Bryant Lived

I want to start off by expressing my deepest condolences to the families of the nine victims of the devastating helicopter crash that took the lives of Kobe Bryant and his daughter Gianna.

I imagine that the death of Kobe will be one of those events in life that we will always remember where we were when we heard the news.

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The Last Decade in Charts - Here Come the Roaring 20's

Charts

With the 2010s having come to an end and the roaring 20s starting I thought I would look back over the past decade to convey key trends that impacted the economy and apartment investors.

I would summarize it as a decade of continued aggressive Federal Reserve involvement in the economy through continued low-interest rates and expansion of its balance sheet.

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Modeling A Recession

recession

Last week were engaged in our annual planning process. As part of this, we come up with key assumptions regarding the operating environment for the next three years or so. Interest rates, of course, are a huge variable in our business and dominated much of the discussion.

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Global Warming - Then and Now

global warming climate change

The impassioned plea that took place recently from teen climate activist Greta Thunberg at the U.N. understandably caught the attention of much of the developed world. At the risk of being controversial/politically incorrect I decided to do a couple of searches on www.newspaperarchive.com on “Climate Change” and “Global Warming” and restrict the years to between 1919 and 1965 to see if these were topics covered by newspapers back then and,

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Economic Gain, Treasury Pain

Treasury Yield

It’s been a brutal couple of weeks for Treasuries as the following headline from Bloomberg attests to on September 13th.

Bloomberg Treasury Dive

10-year yields bottomed on a closing basis on September 3rd at 1.47% and have shot back up to 1.90% as of September 13th.

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Ghosts of Inverted Yield Curve Past

Yield Curve inverted

And all the roads we have to walk are winding

And all the lights that lead us there are blinding

-Wonderwall by Noel Gallagher (for Oasis)

I saw a double bill of Noel Gallagher (formerly of Oasis) and Smashing Pumpkins last week.

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German Negativity

German Yield

Mohamed El-Erian, the former CEO of PIMCO, said recently on CNBC that if you want to know what’s going to happen to U.S. long-term interest rates, then all you have to do is look to Germany. And so that is what I did.

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