Blog Archives

Re-Energized

Energy

A little over six months ago I wrote about what was for a long time a disastrous investment that I made in a coal company that I purchased prior to Covid and subsequently dropped 80%. The post discussed many of the compelling reasons to hang on to the company because coal producers were extremely well-positioned to capitalize on very favorable supply/demand fundamentals.

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Recession Watch

Recession Watch

There’s no question now that the Federal Reserve is in full hawkish mode. The release last week of the minutes of the previous FOMC meeting left no doubt that they are on an aggressive path to squelch inflation through demand destruction and tightening financial conditions.

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From Russia Without Love - Putin's Obsession

Russia without love Putin

This post is going to fall under the category of fake it until you make it. I am going to pretend like I have some special insights into Russia and its actions vis-à-vis Ukraine because I was a political science major, I took classes in Russian history,

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Let He Without Sin...

Banking soap box investing

I’m going to get on my soapbox for this post. I was talking to a friend who was picking my brain about banking relationships as he was thinking about switching banks for his business and he wanted to know about the one I use.

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A Demand Pull Boomcession

Boomcession

Last week’s CPI report sent shockwaves through bond markets. It came in extremely hot.

US CPI YoY 2005 - 2020

Other inflation indicators are running very hot as well.

Median Consumer price index 2004 - 2022 Boomcession

Interest rates have gone up incredibly fast as investors fear a very hawkish Federal Reserve.

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(de)Energized Europe

natural Gas Europe

A couple of months ago I wrote about the unfolding energy challenges related to the sharp recovery out of Covid and the transition to renewable energy sources. The article talked about coal and how the demand for it has increased significantly while supply has dropped due to Covid and the utter disdain for it as an energy source due to its carbon emissions.

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A Beautiful Partnership Built on A Long and Winding Road

The Beatles

Before I start, I wanted to provide a link to an interview I did a few months ago that was recently broadcast. Hopefully, you will enjoy it if you take the time to watch or listen to it.

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Supply Chain Woes - An On The Ground Perspective

supply chain

Our supply chain debacle is front and center for virtually every person in the U.S. in one way or another. This chart is fascinating to me in that orders are now about 5% above previous cycle peaks. 

Manufacturers New Orders Excluding Transportation ($mm) 2005 - 2021 Supply Chain

And yet,

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Energy Crunch - The Co(a)ld Hard Facts and Opportunities

Energy Crunch - The Co(a)ld Hard Facts and Opportunities

One can see that natural gas has gained the most market share of the world energy supply between 1973-2019. Oil’s share has dropped quite significantly during this same time frame. With that being said the second chart shows that it has still grown materially but not nearly as much as natural gas and nuclear.

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The Hard Truth for your Children - Build up Your Soft Skills

soft skills

There is no doubt that technological innovation has automated more tasks and this will only become more pronounced with the greater use of artificial intelligence and robotics. This has created a greater demand for workers who have “soft” skills since routine job tasks are becoming more automated or commoditized.

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