Blog Archives

Global Warming - Then and Now

global warming climate change

The impassioned plea that took place recently from teen climate activist Greta Thunberg at the U.N. understandably caught the attention of much of the developed world. At the risk of being controversial/politically incorrect I decided to do a couple of searches on www.newspaperarchive.org on “Climate Change” and “Global Warming” and restrict the years to between 1919 and 1965 to see if these were topics covered by newspapers back then and,

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Economic Gain, Treasury Pain

Treasury Yield

It’s been a brutal couple of weeks for Treasuries as the following headline from Bloomberg attests to on September 13th.

Bloomberg Treasury Dive

10-year yields bottomed on a closing basis on September 3rd at 1.47% and have shot back up to 1.90% as of September 13th.

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Ghosts of Inverted Yield Curve Past

Yield Curve inverted

And all the roads we have to walk are winding

And all the lights that lead us there are blinding

-Wonderwall by Noel Gallagher (for Oasis)

I saw a double bill of Noel Gallagher (formerly of Oasis) and Smashing Pumpkins last week.

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German Negativity

German Yield

Mohamed El-Erian, the former CEO of PIMCO, said recently on CNBC that if you want to know what’s going to happen to U.S. long-term interest rates, then all you have to do is look to Germany. And so that is what I did.

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Fire My Metaphor for Earnings News: Catalytic Regeneration

Canyon Fire earnings news

There’s a regional park near my house that I like to hike. It has beautiful scenery, a lot of hills, and a number of people on the trails that conveys a feeling of community and self-care. Its topography and large size allow for many different trail options in terms of length,

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Obsessed by Curves: Yield Curves that Is

yield curves

This is going to be a short blog post given my travel schedule last week. I have been talking for awhile now about the narrowing yield curve and the prospects for it inverting. The 10-year Treasury finally went lower than the 3-month Treasury bill which Federal Reserve researchers say is the best indicator for telegraphing a future recession.

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Federal Reserve Response to the Market’s Beseeching - Power of Structural Forces

Federal Reserve

It’s been a very busy three weeks of travel so I’m going to keep this one pretty short and sweet. And while I often write a thousand words or more, this post will hopefully support the adage that “a picture is worth a thousand words.”

The Federal Reserve finally responded to the market’s beseeching that it pauses its rate increases and not be on a “damn the torpedoes” path of raising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet.

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One Mis-Step Away - Answers Come After the Question is Posed

Question

Answers can only come after a question has been posed. Thus, formulating great questions is the first, and most important, step to growing one’s base of knowledge. As I have written in my book, the two most important questions I need the answers to in terms of our investments at CWS are:

What is going to happen to our Net Operating Income?

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A Return to Charts - Focusing on Interest Rates and the Economy

charts

It’s been a while since I have focused on the economy and interest rates so I will return to one of my periodic chart-o-ramas to try to capture some of the dramatic changes taking place in various markets and how investors have gone from embracing risk to shying away from it,

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From Interest Rates to Insights - Feel to Heal

Interest Rates Gary Carmell

The fact that I’m not going to spend much time on this chart must mean that I still feel the need to release things deep within my subconscious with regard to the loss of Roneet.

10-year-treasury-Constant-Maturity-Rate Interest Rates

While rates were rising I wrote a few times that I was perplexed that they were doing so given the headwinds of tariffs and increasing tension with China,

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