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A Graphical Extravaganza with a Little Hemingway Thrown in

I thought I would return to a post focusing on charts that I found compelling this past week. The Fed is now telegraphing an imminent slowdown of its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The reaction of bond investors led to a narrowing of the yield curve.

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Energy Crunch - The Co(a)ld Hard Facts and Opportunities

Energy Crunch - The Co(a)ld Hard Facts and Opportunities

One can see that natural gas has gained the most market share of the world energy supply between 1973-2019. Oil’s share has dropped quite significantly during this same time frame. With that being said the second chart shows that it has still grown materially but not nearly as much as natural gas and nuclear.

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Liberating our Minds - Thoughts about 9/11 and Covid-19

September 11th Covid 19

With the 20th anniversary of September 11 just having passed I felt compelled to make a reference to it in this post. What I find interesting is that after the Twin Towers and Pentagon were attacked and over 3,000 people were killed on American soil,

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Afghan Realities and Applications to Planning

Taliban Afghanistan

One of the reasons I am such a big fan of Charlie Munger is that he is ruthlessly realistic. He and Warren Buffett believe that the key to Berkshire Hathaway’s incredible success is that they are built for rationality.

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The 10 Second Challenge

10 second challenge

For the past 25 years or so I’ve been interested in what are the high-leverage activities and strategies one can take to improve their health outcomes. I have been particularly interested in what contributes to longevity and quality of life by lessening the chances of disease,

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An Improving Labor Market and A Fascinating Real Time Experiment

Labor Market Employment

I started getting into the flow and writing about some epiphanies I had on the tennis court that I was planning on sharing this week. And then the jobs report came out on Friday and I saw the reaction of the bond market to what appeared to be a strong report and I felt like I had to do one more chart-oriented blog.

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Keep your Eyes on the Road but Never Lose Sight of the Destination

Interest Rates Keep your Eyes on the Road

Investing has some parallels with driving. It’s important to have a destination that keeps you on course. I think of the destination as financial goals rooted in thoughtful consideration of powerful trends upon which to capitalize such that the wind can be put at your back while also being fully cognizant of what exposures you may have that can lead to a permanent loss of capital based on shorter-term issues arising.

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D(ata)-Day

Data D(ata)

I have been turning to charts more regularly for my weekly blog posts than I have in the past. Like most people, I see many of the challenges and price pressures resulting from the massively disrupted global supply chain. It shows up in terribly unreliable contractors (I’m having a pool built so I am experiencing this first hand) and the significant increase in the cost of materials that are leading to the rationing of some goods like plywood and even chlorine.

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Transitioning to Transitory Inflation?

Transitory Inflation

The multi-trillion dollar question is whether inflation is transitory. The Fed and other central bankers believe it is as this chart depicts.

Fed Still Declaring Transitory Inflation Z-Scored Rolling 1-year Average 2000 - 2020

As I’ve written about before, the Fed’s reaction function has switched from a forecasting-based approach to one that is now outcomes-focused in terms of needing to see tangible improvements occurring on Main Street even if it leads to speculation and large rewards on Wall Street.

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Stimulus: Should I Save or Should I Go (Spend)

Stimulus save or spend

Economic growth is projected to increase quite substantially now that the $1.9 trillion stimulus has been passed. The following chart shows that economists are forecasting the strongest growth since the Reagan years.

US gross domestic product, change from 4th quarter to 4th quarter 1970 - 2020

Not surprisingly, a lot of this projected growth is predicated on the spending of built-up savings from multiple stimulus packages that have passed and been disbursed.

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