Blog Archives

Tariffs & The Wisdom of Grover Cleveland

The tariff debate and controversy seems to be escalating and has been leading to tremendous stock market volatility. Whenever there is such a heated topic that catalyzes strong emotions I like to take a step back and find ways to drown out the cacophony. One of the ways I do this is to ignore today and look to history to see what I can learn from the past.

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When One Thinks of Disruptors – FDR or Tech Titans?

FDR Churchill Bezos

When one thinks of disruptors it’s not surprising to think of modern tech titans like Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Reed Hastings, Peter Thiel, Bill Gates, Marc Benioff, Steve Jobs, Larry Page, etc. I was reading an interview with the great American writer Philip Roth in the New York Times and he referenced books that he has recently read and what triggered his interest in them.

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Trumpling on the Dollar

dollar

Maybe I’m writing about the dollar because I’m traveling abroad soon so it affects my pocketbook. It could also be due to the rather shockingly overt talking down of the dollar by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin in Davos.

Mnuchin in Davos Dollar

“Obviously a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities,”

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Insurance and Questionable Models Managing Risk

“I write because I don’t know what I think until I read what I say.”

― Flannery O’Connor

This blog post is pretty much just for me as insurance is not a very exciting topic but has great importance to all property owners,

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A Dose of Reality – Are Things As Bad As They Look?

Reality

Maybe it’s because we just had a Friday the 13th or because my home was one of the houses that had to be evacuated in the recent Orange County fires (fortunately it was not damaged) or perhaps because I recently saw an ex-CIA lawyer and analyst speaking about how successful the Russians were in subverting our democracy during the 2016 elections and how at risk we are to cyber attacks from Russia,

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Hineni Here I Am – Answering the Call

Hineni-here I am Las Vegas

My wife was telling me about a woman interviewed by CBS news in the aftermath of the Las Vegas massacre and what she shared was incredibly moving. She truly did a heroic thing in staying with a young man while he was dying and being there for him in the face of great danger.

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The B.I.S. vs. Japan – Increase In Global Interest Rates?

Japan Global Interest Increase

A few weeks ago I wrote about a B.I.S. report that hypothesized that global interest rates would rise over the next few decades as global demographics shift from a labor supply shock to a shortage as labor forces shrink in many developed countries.

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The Negatives of Positive Thinking

Positive ThinkingWhen I used to watch my son’s high school basketball team I was always so impressed at how composed they were. Many times they would initially fall behind and the other teams would get so pumped up after getting off to a strong start, especially against such a good team as ours.

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Historical Context Of The Confederate Statue Controversy

Robert E. Lee Statue Controversy

Whenever there are significant events that take place, particularly those with some historical context, I like to take a step back and, if possible, go back in time and find real-time sources to generate a better understanding of what people were thinking at the time. The terrible events in Charlottesville was a catalyst for me to take this approach.

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The Case Against The Phillips Curve

Phillips Curve

The unemployment rate is the most important indicator for people who are believers in the Phillips Curve. Phillips Curvers believe that there is a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. The less slack in the labor markets (lower unemployment rate) the more inflation there will be as labor can bargain for higher wages and this,

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