Blog Archives

From Interest Rates to Insights – Feel to Heal

Interest Rates Gary Carmell

The fact that I’m not going to spend much time on this chart must mean that I still feel the need to release things deep within my subconscious with regard to the loss of Roneet.

10-year-treasury-Constant-Maturity-Rate Interest Rates

While rates were rising I wrote a few times that I was perplexed that they were doing so given the headwinds of tariffs and increasing tension with China,

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Turning the Corner to the Way Forward

the Way Forward

I don’t typically find myself drawn to self-help books but after reading an article on Medium I found myself intrigued by one written in 1960 by a plastic surgeon named Maxwell Maltz. It is called Psycho-Cybernetics.

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China and a New Cold War – Prioritizing National Security over Business and Investors

China Cold War

In some ways, I can understand investors looking through the threat of tariffs on multiple fronts by President Trump as just his standard negotiating tactic to strike a better deal. Despite very derogatory statements directed towards our strong allies and trading partners of Canada,

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T.R., Dana Delany, and the Power of a Platform

Dana Delany Teddy Roosevelt

Kudos to Heidi Garland who handles my social media. She is quite in her postings on my behalf on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. I never know what interesting tidbit she might be posting. Of all the platforms, Twitter is the most ephemeral as tweets are sent and they tend to have a short shelf life to them.

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What Were Trump Voters Really Looking For?

Trump Voters

With the midterm elections kicking into high gear and political rhetoric heating up and true believers huddling in their echo chambers and cocoons, I thought it would be interesting to look at some research carried out with regard to the 2016 presidential election and some of the surprising findings.

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Suck it Up and Tough it Out – The Lessons Hardship Can Teach

Polish Kresey 1944 tough

Tom Petty used to sing that you don’t have to live like a refugee. On the other hand, John Mellencamp said “suck it up and tough it out, be the best you can.” So what would most people choose?

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How to Unify Countries – The Power of Sports

Unify Gary with Tribal Leader

With the World Cup having been completed this past weekend I thought I would tap into some interesting research about soccer and its ability to unify countries that are typically very tribal and fractious. I saw some of this firsthand during my recent trip to Africa where it was pretty evident that tribalism is very much alive and well.

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Creating Gifts that Keep on Giving

Gifts making Memories

35 years ago on the night of June 27th, a friend of mine and I slept on very uncomfortable concrete outside of Dane County Coliseum in Madison, Wisconsin. The catalyst for this was fear of missing out as we were intent on doing our best to position ourselves to secure a great location for the next night’s concert being put on by the Grateful Dead as all seats were general admission.

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What You See Is What You Get? LIBOR & The Flat Yield Curve

Under most economic environments longer-term debt instruments yield more than shorter ones. This is the case in order to compensate investors for risks related to purchasing power eroding and more uncertainty and volatility that can increase the probability of default (outside Treasuries). In addition, our banking system is based on banks accessing short-term deposits and being able to make longer-term loans and investments which necessitates longer rates being higher than shorter ones so banks can be profitable.

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10-year Treasury Note & Argentina’s 40% Interest Rate – An Interesting Week

10-year Treasury note

What a difference one week makes. Last week I was concerned that the 10-year Treasury note yield had breached its previous cycle peak. I used some questionable, but fancy statistical analysis to justify that the peak I should really be worried about was 3.16% versus the previous cycle peak of 3.04%.

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