Blog Archives

Modeling A Recession

recession

Last week were engaged in our annual planning process. As part of this, we come up with key assumptions regarding the operating environment for the next three years or so. Interest rates, of course, are a huge variable in our business and dominated much of the discussion.

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Charlie Munger, Robert Hunter, and Worldly Wisdom

Charlie Munger, Robert Hunter Worldly Wisdom

“What is elementary, worldly wisdom? Well, the first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang ‘em back. If the facts don’t hang together on a latticework of theory, you don’t have them in a usable form.”

— Charlie Munger

For me,

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Forces of Fortitude and Fulfillment in the Face of Freakish Fatalistic Fury

Roneet Carmell

Now that the one-year anniversary of Roneet’s passing has taken place I wanted to take the opportunity to reflect on some of the strategies, tools, and approaches that I have taken to move forward in life in the absence of her physical absence.I do emphasize her physical absence because her spirit is still with me and so is her voice in my head,

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More Haikus

Haiku

Please note that since the S.E.C. thinks some of my blogs crossover in terms of promoting CWS or making investment recommendations, they now need to be reviewed by our Chief Compliance Officer before being posted. As a result, after this week I anticipate that future blogs will be posted on Tuesday.

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Global Warming - Then and Now

global warming climate change

The impassioned plea that took place recently from teen climate activist Greta Thunberg at the U.N. understandably caught the attention of much of the developed world. At the risk of being controversial/politically incorrect I decided to do a couple of searches on www.newspaperarchive.org on “Climate Change” and “Global Warming” and restrict the years to between 1919 and 1965 to see if these were topics covered by newspapers back then and,

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A Reunion of Reflection

Central School 8th Grade Class of 1979

This post will be a little self-indulgent, as it will not touch on anything related to real estate, interest rates, or economics. It is inspired by my recent attendance at the 40th reunion of my eighth-grade class.

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Obsessed by Curves: Yield Curves that Is

yield curves

This is going to be a short blog post given my travel schedule last week. I have been talking for awhile now about the narrowing yield curve and the prospects for it inverting. The 10-year Treasury finally went lower than the 3-month Treasury bill which Federal Reserve researchers say is the best indicator for telegraphing a future recession.

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Turn and Face the Strange(r) - My Hippie Uber Driver

Hippie Uber Driver

In David Bowie’s song Changes, the protagonist tells himself to “turn and face the strange”. Change is inevitable and in order to drive change or adapt to it, one has to go outside of the comfortable and familiar and take risks.

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One Mis-Step Away - Answers Come After the Question is Posed

Question

Answers can only come after a question has been posed. Thus, formulating great questions is the first, and most important, step to growing one’s base of knowledge. As I have written in my book, the two most important questions I need the answers to in terms of our investments at CWS are:

What is going to happen to our Net Operating Income?

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A Return to Charts - Focusing on Interest Rates and the Economy

charts

It’s been a while since I have focused on the economy and interest rates so I will return to one of my periodic chart-o-ramas to try to capture some of the dramatic changes taking place in various markets and how investors have gone from embracing risk to shying away from it,

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