It’s been a brutal couple of weeks for Treasuries as the following headline from Bloomberg attests to on September 13th.
10-year yields bottomed on a closing basis on September 3rd at 1.47% and have shot back up to 1.90% as of September 13th.
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Blog Archives
Economic Gain, Treasury Pain
by 
Gary Carmell Posted in Economy, Investing, News, Stock History, Stock Market, Trends No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell Posted in Economy, Investing, News, Stock History, Stock Market, Trends No Comments ↓ Ghosts of Inverted Yield Curve Past
And all the roads we have to walk are winding
And all the lights that lead us there are blinding
-Wonderwall by Noel Gallagher (for Oasis)
I saw a double bill of Noel Gallagher (formerly of Oasis) and Smashing Pumpkins last week.
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Think Globally Act Locally
There has been some criticism of Fed chairman Powell as he has gone from saying this in early October 2018:
To telegraphing this on July 10th:
Those who are upset by his dovish turn are irked because they feel like he is kowtowing to the market and Trump who is forcing his hand despite record high stock market averages,
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Economic Tug of War
Are jobs a lagging indicator? That is the question as last week was a very ugly one in terms of the Apple announcement and other economic reports suggesting the global economy is slowing. At the same time, the jobs report was quite stellar as the economy produced a seasonally adjusted 312,000 jobs,
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Treasury Note Yield: Could I Be Wrong? A Humbling Week
Talk about a humbling week. Last week I was making the case that 3.11% on the 10-year Treasury note yield and possibly as high as 3.16% were the key levels that I did not think would be breached. This chart shows how wrong I was.
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Stock Market Volatility - Up Like an Escalator and Down Like an Elevator
Trite generalizations have been able to have longevity because there is enough truth in them to have proven wise and insightful. One of them is that markets go up like an escalator and drop like an elevator. Last week was a perfect example of this.
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The Case Against The Phillips Curve
by Gary Carmell Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth 3 Comments ↓
Gary Carmell Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth 3 Comments ↓ 
The unemployment rate is the most important indicator for people who are believers in the Phillips Curve. Phillips Curvers believe that there is a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. The less slack in the labor markets (lower unemployment rate) the more inflation there will be as labor can bargain for higher wages and this,
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Hitting the Wall? Is The Fed About to Make a Mistake?
by Gary Carmell Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Trends, Wealth No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Trends, Wealth No Comments ↓ 
With last week being dedicated to a much-enjoyed vacation, I thought I would let pictures do more of the talking this week.
Not surprisingly, the Fed increased its benchmark rate by 0.25%. The market fully priced this in. What is more surprising is the Fed telegraphing two more hikes in 2017 and commencing a slow reduction in its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities beginning at the end of the year.
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Has The Performance Of The S&P 500 Always Been So Top Heavy?
by Gary Carmell Posted in Investing, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell Posted in Investing, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth No Comments ↓ 
Technology stocks, particularly large capitalization ones, have been on a tear as the following chart shows.
Since there is overlap between the two indices, I was curious to know how the largest technology companies have impacted the overall S&P 500 return.
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Dynamic Disequilibrium - New Era in Retail REIT's and Housing
by Gary Carmell Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth 1 Comment ↓
Gary Carmell Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth 1 Comment ↓ 
Key economic data and stock prices almost always change before the narrative does. Although the housing meltdown didn’t really come into force until 2007, new home sales had already peaked in 2005 and this corresponded with the stock price of home builders hitting all-time highs. The first chart shows new home sales topping out in July 2015 and the same for Lennar’s stock price as the second chart depicts.
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