With over $6 trillion in global stock market losses in one week, it’s clear that investors have woken up to the real risk that the coronavirus is not contained, somewhat akin to the subprime crisis that Ben Bernanke famously said was and led to massive financial losses around the world.
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Scott Adams is someone I follow and I appreciate his insights about persuasion and human nature. He often says that everyone is living their own movie. They write the scripts and they have cast them with characters they have developed with personalities they have created for them.
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Gary Carmell Posted in Economy, Investing, News, Stock History, Stock Market, Trends No Comments ↓ 
It’s been a brutal couple of weeks for Treasuries as the following headline from Bloomberg attests to on September 13th.
10-year yields bottomed on a closing basis on September 3rd at 1.47% and have shot back up to 1.90% as of September 13th.
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And all the roads we have to walk are winding
And all the lights that lead us there are blinding
-Wonderwall by Noel Gallagher (for Oasis)
I saw a double bill of Noel Gallagher (formerly of Oasis) and Smashing Pumpkins last week.
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There has been some criticism of Fed chairman Powell as he has gone from saying this in early October 2018:
To telegraphing this on July 10th:
Those who are upset by his dovish turn are irked because they feel like he is kowtowing to the market and Trump who is forcing his hand despite record high stock market averages,
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Are jobs a lagging indicator? That is the question as last week was a very ugly one in terms of the Apple announcement and other economic reports suggesting the global economy is slowing. At the same time, the jobs report was quite stellar as the economy produced a seasonally adjusted 312,000 jobs,
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Talk about a humbling week. Last week I was making the case that 3.11% on the 10-year Treasury note yield and possibly as high as 3.16% were the key levels that I did not think would be breached. This chart shows how wrong I was.
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Trite generalizations have been able to have longevity because there is enough truth in them to have proven wise and insightful. One of them is that markets go up like an escalator and drop like an elevator. Last week was a perfect example of this.
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Gary Carmell Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth 3 Comments ↓ 
The unemployment rate is the most important indicator for people who are believers in the Phillips Curve. Phillips Curvers believe that there is a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. The less slack in the labor markets (lower unemployment rate) the more inflation there will be as labor can bargain for higher wages and this,
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Gary Carmell Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Trends, Wealth No Comments ↓ 
With last week being dedicated to a much-enjoyed vacation, I thought I would let pictures do more of the talking this week.
Not surprisingly, the Fed increased its benchmark rate by 0.25%. The market fully priced this in. What is more surprising is the Fed telegraphing two more hikes in 2017 and commencing a slow reduction in its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities beginning at the end of the year.
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