Blog Archives

Stocks Drop and Jobs Contract

Stocks Drop and Jobs Contract

One can see from the following charts from Sentimentrader.com that the last 100 trading days have been one of the worst periods in terms of stock returns in modern history. 

Stock History 12-31-1946 12-31-2001

And while the jury is still out as to whether we will have a recession over the next year,

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A Demand Pull Boomcession

Boomcession

Last week’s CPI report sent shockwaves through bond markets. It came in extremely hot.

US CPI YoY 2005 - 2020

Other inflation indicators are running very hot as well.

Median Consumer price index 2004 - 2022 Boomcession

Interest rates have gone up incredibly fast as investors fear a very hawkish Federal Reserve.

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Inflation - Temporary Peak or Just Starting?

inflation

Inflation is clearly one of the hottest topics for investors in particular and society more generally as the following chart shows. Core inflation has not moved commensurately with the exploding interest in the topic.

Inflation is going to be the HOTTEST topic of Q2 and Q3

The following charts show why inflation is such a hot topic.

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I Won't Back Down - Powell and Yellen versus Wall Street

Jerome Powell Janet Yellen Wall Street

Well, I won’t back down

No, I won’t back down

You can stand me up at the gates of hell

But I won’t back down

No,

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GamePop and the Lollapalooza Effect

Gamestop r_wallstreetbets Robinhood

Here is GameStop’s stock price chart for one month. Setting aside that it was up 62% for the time and day when I captured this screenshot, it’s up over six times during this one month period. And at its peak, it was up about 10 times!

GameStop Robin Hood 5 Day Stock

Now let’s look at a three-month view and the meteoric rise can be put in more perspective.

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Change With Success...And a Potpourri of Topics

Change with Success

There is a reason behind the reason for this blog which will be revealed at the end. I will use a sleight of hand to talk about the importance of not resting on one’s laurels and using a growth mindset to keep changing even in the face of great success.

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COVID-19, Catch-22, Treasury-117

COVID 19 Coronavirus

With over $6 trillion in global stock market losses in one week, it’s clear that investors have woken up to the real risk that the coronavirus is not contained, somewhat akin to the subprime crisis that Ben Bernanke famously said was and led to massive financial losses around the world.

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What Movie Are You Creating And Watching?

Barry Ritholtz Gary Carmell

Scott Adams is someone I follow and I appreciate his insights about persuasion and human nature. He often says that everyone is living their own movie. They write the scripts and they have cast them with characters they have developed with personalities they have created for them.

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Economic Gain, Treasury Pain

Treasury Yield

It’s been a brutal couple of weeks for Treasuries as the following headline from Bloomberg attests to on September 13th.

Bloomberg Treasury Dive

10-year yields bottomed on a closing basis on September 3rd at 1.47% and have shot back up to 1.90% as of September 13th.

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Ghosts of Inverted Yield Curve Past

Yield Curve inverted

And all the roads we have to walk are winding

And all the lights that lead us there are blinding

-Wonderwall by Noel Gallagher (for Oasis)

I saw a double bill of Noel Gallagher (formerly of Oasis) and Smashing Pumpkins last week.

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