Our supply chain debacle is front and center for virtually every person in the U.S. in one way or another. This chart is fascinating to me in that orders are now about 5% above previous cycle peaks.
And yet,
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Blog Archives
Choose One's Models Carefully
Japan has been my model for why I think interest rates will stay low. Its rapidly aging society has led to a shrinking pool of labor over the last two decades which has led to less consumption and more savings. In addition, public spending has increased significantly to help keep the economy growing in the face of strong demographic headwinds.
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Many Pictures Tell a Story - The Fed
by 
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Manufacturing, News, Trends, Wealth
1 Comment ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Manufacturing, News, Trends, Wealth
1 Comment ↓
This week will be another one focused on charts and graphs that caught my attention. The emphasis will be on the story of the Fed remaining very dovish in spite of what appears to be some pockets of economic strength (e.g. housing, commodities, semiconductors),
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Let's Get Real
by Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Manufacturing, News, Stock Market, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
1 Comment ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Manufacturing, News, Stock Market, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
1 Comment ↓
The jobs report released on Friday was disappointing.
Disappointing Job Growth
Perhaps the report shouldn’t have been such a surprise on the downside based on this chart.
It would appear that job seekers are less confident about their prospects as they have significantly reduced their searches.
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Deep Freeze Skepticism
Last Monday’s announcement by Pfizer that its Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing the illness sent an earthquake through financial markets, eliciting the worst day in history for momentum stocks. Momentum stocks have been the best performers and investors invest in them believing that strength creates more strength which will lead to outperformance.
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Economic Tug of War
Are jobs a lagging indicator? That is the question as last week was a very ugly one in terms of the Apple announcement and other economic reports suggesting the global economy is slowing. At the same time, the jobs report was quite stellar as the economy produced a seasonally adjusted 312,000 jobs,
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China and a New Cold War - Prioritizing National Security over Business and Investors
In some ways, I can understand investors looking through the threat of tariffs on multiple fronts by President Trump as just his standard negotiating tactic to strike a better deal. Despite very derogatory statements directed towards our strong allies and trading partners of Canada,
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What Were Trump Voters Really Looking For?
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Interest Rates, Investing, Manufacturing, News, Uncategorized
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Interest Rates, Investing, Manufacturing, News, Uncategorized
No Comments ↓
With the midterm elections kicking into high gear and political rhetoric heating up and true believers huddling in their echo chambers and cocoons, I thought it would be interesting to look at some research carried out with regard to the 2016 presidential election and some of the surprising findings.
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Trumpling on the Dollar
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Manufacturing, Market Bubbles, Uncategorized, Wealth
1 Comment ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Manufacturing, Market Bubbles, Uncategorized, Wealth
1 Comment ↓
Maybe I’m writing about the dollar because I’m traveling abroad soon so it affects my pocketbook. It could also be due to the rather shockingly overt talking down of the dollar by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin in Davos.
“Obviously a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities,”
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Apple - Ain't That America
“A lot of companies have chosen to downsize, and maybe that was the right thing for them. We chose a different path. Our belief was that if we kept putting great products in front of customers, they would continue to open their wallets.”
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