I’ve been wrestling with the theory that we have had a regime change from the credit dislocation cycles that have led to emergency-type measures from the Fed via balance sheet expansion and near 0% interest rates to one that has inflation as much more of a central concern due to powerful fiscal expansionary tendencies and other factors such as onshoring of manufacturing,
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Last Monday’s announcement by Pfizer that its Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing the illness sent an earthquake through financial markets, eliciting the worst day in history for momentum stocks. Momentum stocks have been the best performers and investors invest in them believing that strength creates more strength which will lead to outperformance.
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Are jobs a lagging indicator? That is the question as last week was a very ugly one in terms of the Apple announcement and other economic reports suggesting the global economy is slowing. At the same time, the jobs report was quite stellar as the economy produced a seasonally adjusted 312,000 jobs,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Labor, Manufacturing, Real Estate, Stock Market
1 Comment ↓
In my 35 years working at CWS and the years before that in college, when I first started taking economics classes, the most common term to find the equilibrium to determine optimal price has been “supply and demand.” I have also come to learn that words matter,
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Our supply chain debacle is front and center for virtually every person in the U.S. in one way or another. This chart is fascinating to me in that orders are now about 5% above previous cycle peaks.
And yet,
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Japan has been my model for why I think interest rates will stay low. Its rapidly aging society has led to a shrinking pool of labor over the last two decades which has led to less consumption and more savings. In addition, public spending has increased significantly to help keep the economy growing in the face of strong demographic headwinds.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Manufacturing, News, Trends, Wealth
1 Comment ↓
This week will be another one focused on charts and graphs that caught my attention. The emphasis will be on the story of the Fed remaining very dovish in spite of what appears to be some pockets of economic strength (e.g. housing, commodities, semiconductors),
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Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Manufacturing, News, Stock Market, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
1 Comment ↓
The jobs report released on Friday was disappointing.
Disappointing Job Growth
Perhaps the report shouldn’t have been such a surprise on the downside based on this chart.
It would appear that job seekers are less confident about their prospects as they have significantly reduced their searches.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Manufacturing, News, Retirement, Stock History
No Comments ↓
It’s pretty clear that Donald Trump views virtually everything from the prism of winning and losing. And every issue is looked at with a very short term horizon. There does not appear to be any satisfaction derived by developing a long-term strategy, methodically implementing it, and seeing the seeds planted blossom into a beautiful garden that is sustainable and beneficial to all.
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In some ways, I can understand investors looking through the threat of tariffs on multiple fronts by President Trump as just his standard negotiating tactic to strike a better deal. Despite very derogatory statements directed towards our strong allies and trading partners of Canada,
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