The two big events last week were the release of the non-farm payroll report and Heather and I attending the Oasis concert at the Rose Bowl. I will target discussing the latter next week while focusing on the former for this week’s blog.
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Blog Archives
Suddenly, I'm Not Half the Labor Market I Used to Be
Last week, I mentioned the possibility of showing the output of an A.I query regarding some events that took place with me recently. I’m going to have to save that for next week or beyond, given the release of last week’s jobs report. It was so jarring and had such market impact that I would be negligent if I didn’t focus this week’s blog on that report.
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Here We Go Again
Just when the market prices in four cuts for 2024, either the Fed comes out to talk the market down or data is released to suggest investors are being too aggressive in pricing in the number of Fed cuts.
We are now back to the point where the market and Fed are once again aligned on the number of cuts in 2024.
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GDPtopia
Last week, the GDP report for the 4th quarter was released as well as the Fed’s favorite inflation index, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE). The Fed should be very pleased with what the reports revealed and how it has defied the overwhelming consensus that a hard landing was necessary to break the back of inflation.
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It's Getting Real
In the wake of last Friday’s jobs report, Treasuries sold off, and yields rose, as this table shows.
Once again, there was a material difference between the ADP report, which came in weaker than expected,
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The Obstacles to Human Flourishing
I am going to share my thoughts about what has been happening in Israel and Gaza, but before doing so, I am going to approach it from a very different angle initially, and then I will apply it to the situation at hand.
The Virtues of Fossil Fuel
I am reading a fascinating book called Fossil Future: Why Global Human Flourishing Requires More Oil,
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It Costs A Lot To Win and Even More To Lose
Last week I discussed how recessions have not occurred until an inverted yield curve reverts to being positively sloped such that long rates are higher than short rates. I wanted to do a bit of a deeper dive to see what it means for employment peaks.
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Running the Numbers to Accept Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain
Last week we had our annual investor meeting. It was the first time we met in person since 2019. It was so nice to be together again. Despite not communicating the rosiest of messages, it was an evening that had great positive energy.
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Getting in the Arena in Austin - Resilience
by 
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Investing, Labor, Personal, Psychology
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Investing, Labor, Personal, Psychology
No Comments ↓
One of the beneficial things about writing a blog each week is that it helps me prepare for presentations that I have to do periodically. Last week we had our national meeting in Austin for many of our CWS employees, and this week we have our annual investor meeting.
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From Housing to Labor and Back Again
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Labor, News, Real Estate
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Labor, News, Real Estate
No Comments ↓
I think this chart is what keeps Jay Powell up at night. If he were convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that we were still in the same low inflation regime that had been present for decades prior to Covid,
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