The Obstacles to Human Flourishing

I am going to share my thoughts about what has been happening in Israel and Gaza, but before doing so, I am going to approach it from a very different angle initially, and then I will apply it to the situation at hand.

The Virtues of Fossil Fuel

I am reading a fascinating book called Fossil Future: Why Global Human Flourishing Requires More Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas–Not Less. The author extols the incredible virtues of fossil fuels in terms of how harnessing their energy has led to an incredible improvement in living standards over the past 200 years. I hope that’s not too triggering for you reading this. Those who think fossil fuels are evil and those who profit from them are heartless, greedy capitalists. I suggest you divert your attention away now and find a safe space to decompress. If, on the other hand, you are willing to read about another point of view with an open mind and somewhat objectively, then please stick around.

Utilizing fossil fuels has led to the invention and use of machines that have freed people from grueling manual labor to pursue endeavors for which they may be better or uniquely suited. This has enabled those with curious minds, ingenuity, entrepreneurial instincts, and a desire and belief that they can make a difference to have the freedom to use their minds and ingenuity to create breakthroughs that have led to remarkable improvement in the health and well-being of billions of people. As Warren Buffett is fond of saying, in many ways, the average American today has a better quality of life than John D. Rockefeller did. And it just so happened that fossil fuels were the source of his incredible wealth and the foundation he created a beneficiary of it as well as the charities in which it has contributed over its long and storied history. 

There is no doubt that fossil fuels have also created a lot of pollution since they started being used on a widespread basis and harmed the environment. These same fossil fuels have also been used to catalyze the invention of machines and led to technological breakthroughs to improve their efficiency and reduce their pollution in staggering ways. In order to innovate and scale technological breakthroughs to solve problems that previous innovations brought about, there needs to be an ecosystem that innovators can leverage off of to bring their breakthroughs out of the prototype stage to manufacturing and distributing at scale. 

Elon Musk is quoted in the book about this very challenge.

“Smart people on Wall Street generally . . . think that once you have come up with a prototype, that’s the hard part, and everything else is trivial copying after that. It’s not. It’s perhaps 1 percent of the problem. Large-scale manufacturing, especially of a new technology, it’s something between 1,000 and 10,000 percent harder than the prototype.”

Leveraging off of Musk’s comments about how difficult it is to scale a new technology, the author goes on to elaborate on how unrealistic it is to keep humanity on the flourishment path without continuing to rely on fossil fuels. There is no way to replace the infrastructure and ecosystem that is reliant on fossil fuels with other forms of energy. To do so will cause a catastrophic drop in living standards and shut the developing world out of a much better life.

The amount of economic innovation and achievement that the energy industry has engaged in around fossil fuels dwarfs the innovation and achievement it has engaged in around all other alternatives combined. Millions of people over generations have engaged in continual innovation, with lots of trial and error to actually make fossil fuel energy cost-effective in practice for the millions of different real-life situations where it is needed, involving vastly different kinds of machines, different locations, different weather conditions, different patterns of energy use, etc. There are fossil fuel solutions for everything from a cookstove in India to a mining operation in Alaska to a power plant in South Africa to an airplane that can be refueled in all corners of the world. Much of the unrivaled economic innovation and achievement that has gone into making fossil fuels ultra-cost-effective is specifically based on fossil fuels’ remarkable attributes and thus would substantially not be transferable to sources of energy without those attributes.

The author posts that nothing has contributed more to human flourishing than the discovery and adoption of fossil fuels and that to dramatically curtail their use in favor of unreliable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower is not only completely delusional but will insanely put roadblocks on the potential for the billions in poverty around the world to be able to improve their lives exponentially. It will also hurt the living standards of those in the developed world too. 

No matter how efficient we become in terms of energy usage, overall energy consumption keeps growing as innovation uses more energy. For example, the amount of energy and water needed to extract rare earth and to produce batteries and semiconductors is extraordinary, so if history is any guide, then the need for more energy will continue to grow, and fossil fuels will not only be needed but in growing quantities as well.

This headline is a good example of the point I’m trying to make.

Here are the key takeaways from the article of the above headline that elucidate my point about how delusional it is for us to be reliant upon renewables.

Micron Technology’s planned semiconductor fabrication plant in Clay would consume more electricity than the entire state of Vermont.

When fully built, the complex of four chip fabs would use 640 million kilowatt-hours a month, more than enough for 1 million average New York homes.

Micron has promised to buy all that electricity from renewable sources, a promise that reflects New York state’s commitment to have an emission-free electric grid by 2040.

A 40-megawatt solar plant in Clay would provide less than 1% of the Micron megafab’s anticipated power supply.

Here is an excerpt from another article about Micron’s future energy needs in New York.

As consumers are mandated to buy electric cars, and households are forced to switch from natural gas to electric heat, electricity demand is expected to as much as double by midcentury. And 70 percent of that future electricity demand must be supplied by renewable energy.

Because hydropower output will not increase significantly, solar and wind power must increase from their current output of approximately 7,600 gigawatt-hours to as much as 185,000 gigawatt-hours by 2050. When Micron is added to the mix, the need will rise to almost 200,000 gigawatt-hours of wind and solar, a 2,600 percent increase from today.

That’s a challenge New York simply has no real plan for achieving because the state’s renewable and clean energy goals are based more on wishful thinking than hard-headed analysis about the technical challenges of radically restructuring the state’s power system.

There is absolutely no chance New York will be able to increase renewable capacity by that much to allow Micron and the state to achieve its goals. Fossil fuels are not only going to have to remain but they will be used far more than they are today.

Now it’s time to pivot from the burning of fossil fuels to the burning of the Middle East in the wake of Hamas’ brutal, barbaric murder and mutilation of over 1,200 Israelis on October 7th.  This was the worst pogrom carried out against Jews since the holocaust and is reminiscent of the massacre of Jews in Hebron in 1929.

I think there’s a correlation between the consequences of those who want to stop the use of fossil fuels in their tracks and those who believe that Hamas and the “Free Palestine” true believers have a moral justification for murdering Israelis and Jews outside of Israel. 

Dr. Yama Akbari

Let me first take a step back and discuss a recent experience that helped me gain clarity with regard to these two incredibly emotional issues and corresponding mindsets. Last week, I attended a lecture carried out by Dr. Yama Akbari in honor of the Roneet Carmell Memorial Endowment that I created to support his groundbreaking research at UCI related to cardiac arrest and the ways to identify what specific early intervention actions can be done to improve the outcome for survival and future well being. He is a brilliant man and an even more impressive human being imbued with a huge heart and kindness. Although we met under the worst circumstances possible from my perspective, I am so grateful to have him in my life, and I am so proud of how he is improving the lives of so many through his research, teaching, and compassion. 

Dr. Akbari was born in Afghanistan, and his family emigrated to the United States when he was five. We discussed this before the lecture, and after reflecting on our conversation, what he spoke about at the lecture, the book I’m reading, and the horrific events happening in Israel and Gaza, it hit me how these separate situations were intricately connected. 

Dr. Akbari could never, and I say this with 100% certainty, have accomplished what he has, and will accomplish, in Afghanistan had he stayed there. Why do I say this with such confidence? There is no system in that country or society to encourage and reward ideas and human ingenuity. Afghan society is tribal, ideological, misogynist, insular, and racist, and places very little value on human flourishing. It is not only not modern, but it is anti-modern. The last thing it will encourage is collaboration between men, women, younger, older, straight, gay, Muslim, non-Muslim, etc. in order to have the best ideas come to the surface and bring them to life. There is not a chance. Zero, nada, it will never happen. Sorry, idealists, it’s a delusional pipe dream. The best and brightest have no hope of cultivating their gifts there. They have no choice but to emigrate, which sadly leaves behind more people who support and benefit from a system that thrives in a Dark Ages mindset and culture.

Back to Gaza and Israel

Now we can finally get to Gaza and Israel, the real purpose of this post, and how everything goes back to systems and how systems reflect the values, ideology, history, mindsets, cultural norms, and societal pressures of families, organizations, and countries. Outcomes are a function of processes and systems. If you continuously get bad outcomes, then you have a bad system. And of course, the converse is true. If you consistently produce good outcomes, then you have a good system. Of course, no system is perfect; even good ones fall short and are worthy of criticism, but there is a huge chasm between good and bad systems. Just look at the outcomes. 

I am hard-pressed to find a greater gap between systems with such geographical proximity as Israel and Gaza (Hamas) as well as with the Palestinian Authority. Israel is modern, human-centric, focused on values, education, democracy, and expanding knowledge to improve living standards around the world. The essence of Judaism is to heal the world, and Jews have done this through medicine, the sciences, education, literature, arts, etc., in ways that are incredible relative to how small their numbers are. Israelis value life and will go to heroic lengths to save lives. Given all of this, when I think about the loss of over 1,400 Israelis and the eviscerated potential of what they could have accomplished in the Israeli system or in other countries where many bright Israelis have emigrated to in order to flourish, it is staggering what could have been achieved by these innocent victims and shared with the world.

No Systems in Place

Now, let’s turn to Gaza. Just like in Afghanistan, there is absolutely no system in place to encourage and reward human ingenuity. Hamas is a dictatorial, exploitative organization that has an incredible incentive to perpetuate the conflict with Israel to stay in power and control resources. It celebrates death and minimizes the value of life, especially if it’s used to kill Israelis and Jews. Sadly, because of the system, the world will have gained nothing in terms of overall humanity benefitting from those perishing in Gaza because the system they lived in and would have continued to live in would never have allowed for it. It’s too insular and too anti-modern to allow for this to happen. 

And don’t tell me that the repression of human potential in Gaza is because of the so-called occupation by Israel, as virtually every Arab country has produced so little in terms of innovation and ideas that have benefited humanity. This is in spite of many having huge natural resources while, up until recently, Israel had virtually none other than its values and human capital. It’s the curse of natural resources versus the blessing of not having to rely on them for growth, as the former breeds corruption, laziness, and stagnation, while the latter requires the development of human capital, ingenuity, and drive to create unique competitive advantages to make up for not having natural resources. Think of Japan, Israel, Singapore, and Hong Kong (prior to China taking over) as prime examples.

And while for some reading this, you may accuse me of being racist. On the contrary, it is pro-humanity and represents the stark, cold reality of the world. It also comes from a place of sadness that so much of humanity is locked into terrible systems that stifle innovation, independent thinking, and human potential. And if you still think I’m racist, then take a deep breath and research indicators such as mortality, longevity, nourishment, food sufficiency, GDP per capita, patents per capita, Nobel Prizes, global thought leaders, artistic geniuses, etc., and you will find that there is no Arab country or any developing country that can come anywhere close to what Israel has accomplished in these areas.  And all of this has occurred since 1948! Oppressive systems that do not value human flourishing cannot hold a candle to Israel in terms of maximizing human potential because Israel’s system does value human life and its potential.

Here’s the bottom line. If you care about human flourishing, then there is no way you can support the eradication of fossil fuels or choose Hamas over Israel. It is that black and white to me because supporting the elimination of fossil fuels requires a mindset and belief system that looks at human growth and flourishing as a cost and something to restrain versus an overriding goal and something to celebrate. This is a similar mindset and belief system that Israel is evil and that Hamas is a poor, innocent victim because there is such a power and wealth imbalance between the two. Well duh! Of course there is! Just look at their systems, and you will see why. One is committed to improving the lives of its citizens and the world, while Hamas only cares about conflict, death, murder, destruction, martyrdom, and the perpetuation of conflict.  If you can rationally look at the outcomes each has produced and how the world would be better or worse off without either, then you will see that it is a zero-sum game. If there is no Israel, then humanity will be far worse off, and if there is no Hamas, the world will miss nothing and actually be better off. And conversely, if Israel grows in strength, the world will greatly benefit, while if Hamas does, humanity will be far worse off.

If you shift your thinking from occupier, oppressor, terrorist, etc., to analyzing it systematically, it will force you to ask hard questions that you may not like the answers to because you will have to confront terrible biases and hate that you’re harboring. Yes, the truth hurts sometimes, but it can also set you free.