Blog Archives

T.R., Dana Delany, and the Power of a Platform

Dana Delany Teddy Roosevelt

Kudos to Heidi Garland who handles my social media. She is quite in her postings on my behalf on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. I never know what interesting tidbit she might be posting. Of all the platforms, Twitter is the most ephemeral as tweets are sent and they tend to have a short shelf life to them.

Read more ›



Treasury Note Yield: Could I Be Wrong? A Humbling Week

Treasury Note Yield

Talk about a humbling week. Last week I was making the case that 3.11% on the 10-year Treasury note yield and possibly as high as 3.16% were the key levels that I did not think would be breached. This chart shows how wrong I was.

Read more ›



What ‘The Eleven’ Has to Do With Interest Rates?

The Eleven

The Grateful Dead have a song called The Eleven. In many ways the lyrics are unintelligible. It was written during their psychedelic phase so the lack of comprehension makes some sense as their senses were non-sensical.

Read more ›



Single-Family Housing: No Bubble But There Is A “But”

housing

It has been our belief at CWS that housing in totality has been undersupplied. This does not mean that apartments may not be over-supplied in certain metro areas, particularly in the urban core. This is the case because these properties are often very dense and result in the delivery of a lot of units at one time that can often result in rent discounts to entice people to rent at these communities so developers can expedite getting out of their construction loans and/or be in a position to sell their properties.

Read more ›



What Were Trump Voters Really Looking For?

Trump Voters

With the midterm elections kicking into high gear and political rhetoric heating up and true believers huddling in their echo chambers and cocoons, I thought it would be interesting to look at some research carried out with regard to the 2016 presidential election and some of the surprising findings.

Read more ›



Life and Death Location Decisions – Innovative Technology Sectors

Decisions high tech

When we started to scale our apartment business in the mid to late 1990s our location decisions were based on investing in cities that would be highly appealing to knowledge-based workers. It was starting to become clear that economic growth would be driven by technological innovation deployed widely throughout U.S.

Read more ›



Built To Last – Finite vs. Infinite Games

Finite and Infinite Games

I had the pleasure of seeing Crazy Rich Asians last week. It was quite enjoyable and I very much recommend it. There is a scene in the movie that represents the clash of values between generations and cultures (Chinese and Chinese American) in which the matriarch criticizes her son’s Chinese American girlfriend for being fixated on the American obsession of happiness and wanting to be happy.

Read more ›



Rising from the Ashes – Lessons From My Visit to Auschwitz & Birkenau

Auschwitz Enterance

According to management guru Peter Drucker, one of the greatest traits a business leader can have is intellectual honesty. This is the ability to see the world as it is and not as you want it to be and then to act accordingly. This applies equally as well to great investors like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.

Read more ›



What You See Is What You Get? LIBOR & The Flat Yield Curve

Under most economic environments longer-term debt instruments yield more than shorter ones. This is the case in order to compensate investors for risks related to purchasing power eroding and more uncertainty and volatility that can increase the probability of default (outside Treasuries). In addition, our banking system is based on banks accessing short-term deposits and being able to make longer-term loans and investments which necessitates longer rates being higher than shorter ones so banks can be profitable.

Read more ›



Bond Market Skepticism & Emerging Market Carnage

I couldn’t stay away from interest rates for too long. Last week was very fascinating. There was a lot of news that should have been quite bearish for long-term bonds but instead, yields moved down by about 5 basis points for the week for the 10-year Treasury note.

Read more ›