I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I’ll pivot back to Jay Powell and the Fed from Pete Townshend and The Who. Two of my favorite subjects 🙂
The minutes of the Fed meetings that took place November 1-2 were released last week.
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Blog Archives
All Roads Lead to the Fed
I was traveling internationally last week for some meetings in London as well as a side visit to Paris prior to Chunneling it to London. While I was hoping to discuss Paris this week, given limited time and the market’s reaction to last week’s CPI report,
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Powell's Conundrum: Demand and Supply
by 
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Labor, Manufacturing, Real Estate, Stock Market
1 Comment ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Labor, Manufacturing, Real Estate, Stock Market
1 Comment ↓
In my 35 years working at CWS and the years before that in college, when I first started taking economics classes, the most common term to find the equilibrium to determine optimal price has been “supply and demand.” I have also come to learn that words matter,
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In Search of Goldilocks
Last week the Fed raised short-term interest rates by 0.75%. This was entirely expected by the market. Given that this was already priced in, it stands to reason that the only source of new information would be what the Fed would communicate in its statement that’s released in conjunction with announcing the interest rate hike along with Chairman Jay Powell’s press conference.
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Monetary Squeeze and Industrial Disease
Yeah, now the workforce is disgusted, downs tools, walks
Innocence is injured, experience just talks
Everyone seeks damages, everyone agrees that
These are classic symptoms of a monetary squeeze
On ITV and BBC they talk about the curse
Philosophy is useless,
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Sorry Joe
I feel for Joe Biden. I really do. No President is solely responsible for economic ills or gains as there’s a continuum that carries over from previous administrations and policies. There are too many forces and variables in play to ascribe blame or credit entirely to an administration.
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Stocks Drop and Jobs Contract
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Stock Market
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Stock Market
No Comments ↓
One can see from the following charts from Sentimentrader.com that the last 100 trading days have been one of the worst periods in terms of stock returns in modern history.
And while the jury is still out as to whether we will have a recession over the next year,
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Off Target
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, News, Stock Market
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, News, Stock Market
No Comments ↓
Last week was brutal for retailers as major earnings announcements showed how they have been hit very hard by huge cost increases. Wal-Mart started the week off shocking the market with its very weak earnings outlook and then there was Target.
Its stock price got absolutely crushed in the wake of its results being released.
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A Demand Pull Boomcession
Last week’s CPI report sent shockwaves through bond markets. It came in extremely hot.
Other inflation indicators are running very hot as well.
Interest rates have gone up incredibly fast as investors fear a very hawkish Federal Reserve.
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D(ata)-Day
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock Market, Uncategorized, Wealth
2 Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock Market, Uncategorized, Wealth
2 Comments ↓
I have been turning to charts more regularly for my weekly blog posts than I have in the past. Like most people, I see many of the challenges and price pressures resulting from the massively disrupted global supply chain. It shows up in terribly unreliable contractors (I’m having a pool built so I am experiencing this first hand) and the significant increase in the cost of materials that are leading to the rationing of some goods like plywood and even chlorine.
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