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Let's Get Real

COVID19 Vaccine Stimulus Jobs Numbers

The jobs report released on Friday was disappointing. 

Job growth has seriously slowed - economists react to 'disappointing' November employment report December 4, 2020

Disappointing Job Growth

Perhaps the report shouldn’t have been such a surprise on the downside based on this chart.

Meager Bounce for Job Hunting Searches in November 2020 Oct 1, 2019 - Feb 1, 2021

It would appear that job seekers are less confident about their prospects as they have significantly reduced their searches.

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Confucius Say Beware of Superspreader

Confucius Say Beware of Superspreader

With China having gotten a lot of heat for Covid-19 I thought I would end this post with advice that I think one of its great philosophers would have given had he been alive today. Confucius lived between 551-479 B.C. According to Wikipedia

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Interest Rates: Lower for How Much Longer?

variable interest rates

“We’re not thinking about raising rates — 

we’re not even thinking about thinking about raising rates,” 

Jerome Powell during 6/10/20 press conference

With interest rates at record lows, this is a time when many people are strongly considering locking in long-term,

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The Positives of Being Negative

LIBOR Variable Interest Rates F

Ok, let’s get this out of the way first since this blog has a subliminal purpose of being a diary for major economic and financial milestones so this is one I can’t ignore.

April Unemployment Rate Rose to a Record 14.7 2020

Now to the subject at hand.

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Follow the Herd: Why COVID19 End Game Needs Herd Immunity

Herd COVID_19

I’m not one to typically advocate following the herd but in the case of the coronavirus, I am having a hard time seeing an end game that doesn’t have herd immunity as the ultimate goal. And this could take a long time and lead to a lengthier economic contraction (to put it mildly) and even more massive federal intervention through government spending and Federal Reserve support of financial markets.

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A Leap Over Normality - Our New Abnormal

COVID-19 Abnormal

Last week was a crazy week preparing for rent collections this week as well as going through in great detail the safety precautions we are taking to do our best to keep our employees and residents safe. That is why this blog is shorter than normal.

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This Ain't No Party. This Ain't No Disco. This Ain't No Fooling Around

Quarantine

The title of this blog is from the Talking Heads song Life During Wartime. Maybe I should have called it Life During Quarantine instead but we are definitely on a wartime footing. If you don’t think so then maybe these charts might help convince you as financial markets are the most real-time indicator of investor sentiment and discounting the future to ascertain how investors react to key events.

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COVID-19, Catch-22, Treasury-117

COVID 19 Coronavirus

With over $6 trillion in global stock market losses in one week, it’s clear that investors have woken up to the real risk that the coronavirus is not contained, somewhat akin to the subprime crisis that Ben Bernanke famously said was and led to massive financial losses around the world.

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Revisiting the Spanish Flu: What Can a Dire Pandemic Look Like?

Pandemics

I’m admittedly obsessed by pandemics. I’ve been listening to the course on the Black Death via the Great Courses, I was in China at the tail end of SARS in 2003 and was intensely focused on what life was like during that time there, and of course,

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2020 - Coming in Hot

2020 Coming in Hot

2020 has started off with some geopolitical fireworks that have carried over to financial markets as the headline below attests.

U.S. Kill Iranian Military Leader Qassem Soleimani

This is another good example of why having a hedge with U.S. Treasuries (and maybe a little gold as well) can be helpful to provide a counterweight to risk assets that inevitably take a mild beating,

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