🎸 Don’t Look Back in Anger — Jerome Powell’s Pivot Ballad
Subtitle: A Fed Chair’s Lament in the Key of Regret
Intro: Leadership flows best when it’s adaptive,
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Blog Archives
Buckle Up
I can’t believe I’m saying this but I kind of miss the days when interest rate concerns were at the forefront of investor concerns, including mine.
Now it’s been replaced by trade and tariff fears.
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Method Behind the Madness?
by 
Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Stock History, Stock Market
1 Comment ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Stock History, Stock Market
1 Comment ↓
The bond market detests Donald Trump’s approach to tariffs.
Equally importantly, it appears that much of the American public does as well. This chart should scare Donald Trump as independent voters are now very concerned about inflation spiking in the near future.
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Confusion and the Need for Second-Level Thinking
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Real Estate, Stock History, Stock Market, Uncategorized, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Real Estate, Stock History, Stock Market, Uncategorized, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Note: I was so absorbed in writing this blog while waiting for my connecting flight home at the Phoenix airport that I only realized after it was too late that I was at the wrong gate and that my flight was changed to a different gate in another terminal.
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Data (co)-Dependence
Last week was a very bad week for the bond market, with some reprieve on Friday after a better-than-expected inflation report. This is a 5-day chart for the 10-year Treasury. Yields shot up by 0.20% after the Fed cut rates on the 18th and in the aftermath of Jay Powell’s press conference.
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Banking on Cuts
In the short run, the Fed chose to keep up the inflation fight despite deteriorating financial stability emanating from a wounded banking sector. There is now a lot of market data corroborating that the Fed will have no choice but to start cutting rates soon.
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Who's Afraid of Treasuries? When Stability Breeds Instability
I’m going to breeze through a number of tweets and charts as I’m headed to watch the semi-finals and finals of the tennis matches at Indian Wells. The weather is going to be outstanding, and the matches have a similar promise.
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Stocks Drop and Jobs Contract
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Stock Market
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Stock Market
No Comments ↓
One can see from the following charts from Sentimentrader.com that the last 100 trading days have been one of the worst periods in terms of stock returns in modern history.
And while the jury is still out as to whether we will have a recession over the next year,
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Economic Tug of War
Are jobs a lagging indicator? That is the question as last week was a very ugly one in terms of the Apple announcement and other economic reports suggesting the global economy is slowing. At the same time, the jobs report was quite stellar as the economy produced a seasonally adjusted 312,000 jobs,
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Only Time Will Tell: Hedging Ahead in the Expectations of a Shifting Fed
I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I’ll pivot back to Jay Powell and the Fed from Pete Townshend and The Who. Two of my favorite subjects 🙂
The minutes of the Fed meetings that took place November 1-2 were released last week.
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