How Energy, Geopolitics, and Inflation Are Triggering a Global Market Chain Reaction
Financial markets have a long history of overreacting to geopolitical headlines and then quietly moving on. This time feels different. The recent surge in energy prices following events in Iran—coming on the heels of U.S.
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The financial narrative has evolved from a simple “cooling economy” story into a complex tug-of-war between recessionary signals and surprising pockets of resilience. While markets continue to price in future rate cuts, recent data highlights significant cross-currents that make the Federal Reserve’s path forward increasingly uncertain.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in A.I., Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, News, Personal, Tennis, Travel
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If there’s one word that keeps returning to me this year, it’s “woah.” Not the “woe” of victimhood, but the woah of awe—the inhale that invites presence, humility, and gratitude. 2025 brought plenty of reasons to pause: service that nourished the soul,
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In 2018 I was on a cruise that took us to eastern Africa, two stops in India, as well as Myanmar, Malaysia, and Singapore. The cruise departed from Cape Town, South Africa. Upon arriving there we were immediately struck by how dire the water situation was.
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I many times thought Peace had come
When Peace was far away—
As Wrecked Men—deem they sight the Land—
At Centre of the Sea—
And struggle slacker—but to prove
As hopelessly as I—
How many the fictitious Shores—
Before the Harbor be—
-Emily Dickinson
Every so often I will read poetry to tap into timeless thoughts and wisdom.
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It’s been awhile since I have had a blog post with a lot of charts and graphs. This is largely because my typical source for these, www.thedailyshot, had been off line for a long period of time.
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Powell’s Pivot and Market Tightening: Cockroaches Emerging in Credit Markets
The financial markets are flashing warning signs that deserve attention. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s recent shift in focus, combined with tightening money markets and emerging credit problems, suggests we may be entering a more challenging environment for credit quality.
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🎸 Don’t Look Back in Anger — Jerome Powell’s Pivot Ballad
Subtitle: A Fed Chair’s Lament in the Key of Regret
Intro: Leadership flows best when it’s adaptive,
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The two big events last week were the release of the non-farm payroll report and Heather and I attending the Oasis concert at the Rose Bowl. I will target discussing the latter next week while focusing on the former for this week’s blog.
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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave his annual Jackson Hole address last week. It’s almost assuredly his last one and is a fitting end to his tenure as it remained consistent with his personality and approach which is to be measured and flexible versus narcissistic and dogmatic.
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