Blog Archives

It's Getting Interesting

Interest Rate

The Fed blinked and acknowledged that inflation may not be transitory. When combined with its perception that the labor market is on the way to being healed, Jerome Powell has moved up the Fed’s estimate of the first rate hike by more than a year.

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Single-Family Housing: No Bubble But There Is A "But"


It has been our belief at CWS that housing in totality has been undersupplied. This does not mean that apartments may not be over-supplied in certain metro areas, particularly in the urban core. This is the case because these properties are often very dense and result in the delivery of a lot of units at one time that can often result in rent discounts to entice people to rent at these communities so developers can expedite getting out of their construction loans and/or be in a position to sell their properties.

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Trumpling on the Dollar


Maybe I’m writing about the dollar because I’m traveling abroad soon so it affects my pocketbook. It could also be due to the rather shockingly overt talking down of the dollar by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin in Davos.

Mnuchin in Davos Dollar

“Obviously a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities,”

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Deconstructing Paranoia or Shadowboxing with the Fed


I am a great admirer of those who have the ability and inclination to deconstruct great performance as well as negative ones too. Charlie Munger is famous for inverting. If you want to learn how to live a great life it can be just as valuable to educate oneself on the characteristics and quality of a miserable life.

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Good Intentions and The Lollapalooza Effect

Lollapalooza EffectThe old adage is that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. As Ben Graham said, it’s not the bad ideas that do you in, but the good ideas that go too far that can do the most damage. A perfect example of this was the drive for more Americans to own homes,

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The Media, Earthquakes, and Market Crashes


I have written before about how investors overestimate the probability of extreme negative outcomes. The author of the study I referenced in that blog post has teamed up with his famed Yale colleague Robert Shiller and another professor and published a new working paper called Crash Beliefs from Investor Surveys.

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Hamilton, Madison, and Brexit - Part 2

BrexitThis is part two of my blog post regarding Alexander Hamilton as well as James Madison as he is featured prominently this week. It seems particularly fitting to blog about this given the decision by U.K. voters to exit the European Union. Hamilton and Madison believed that factions were the greatest risk to good governance,

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The Skyscraper Indicator - Is the Luxury Home Bubble Bursting?


A little while back I read an article by Ron Insana regarding New York luxury condos and how he believed that the top was in and the bubble was bursting. This is in conjunction with another article I read on about the weakening London luxury home market.

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Not All Bubbles Are Created Equally


With the subprime-induced global financial meltdown of 2008 and 2009, along with the dotcom implosion in the early 2000s resulting in the NASDAQ dropping by approximately 80%, it’s not surprising that most investors are constantly on guard against the bursting of bubbles and crashes ensuing. If one takes a step back,

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Here We Go Again - Another Wild Ride for Stock Markets

Stock Updates

[UPDATED – January 25, 2017] The DOW opened today above 20,000. The rally from 19,000 to 20,000 was one of the fastest in history. What do these numbers mean? We need to look back at the following from 2015 looking at the historical data.

Last week [August 2015] was one wild ride for stock markets around the world.

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