I recently returned from the National Multifamily Housing Council conference in Las Vegas. I have been attending the conference since very early in my career, which makes me one of the pioneer attendees as the organization was fairly new then, and there were probably no more than 500 people at the conference in the early 1990s.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Market Bubbles, News, Real Estate
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Give me a word
Give me a sign
Show me where to look
Tell me, what will I find?
What will I find?
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Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Market Bubbles, Uncategorized, Wealth
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The Fed blinked and acknowledged that inflation may not be transitory. When combined with its perception that the labor market is on the way to being healed, Jerome Powell has moved up the Fed’s estimate of the first rate hike by more than a year.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Investing, Market Bubbles, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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I have written before about how investors overestimate the probability of extreme negative outcomes. The author of the study I referenced in that blog post has teamed up with his famed Yale colleague Robert Shiller and another professor and published a new working paper called Crash Beliefs from Investor Surveys.
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A little while back I read an article by Ron Insana regarding New York luxury condos and how he believed that the top was in and the bubble was bursting. This is in conjunction with another article I read on Bloomberg.com about the weakening London luxury home market.
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It has been our belief at CWS that housing in totality has been undersupplied. This does not mean that apartments may not be over-supplied in certain metro areas, particularly in the urban core. This is the case because these properties are often very dense and result in the delivery of a lot of units at one time that can often result in rent discounts to entice people to rent at these communities so developers can expedite getting out of their construction loans and/or be in a position to sell their properties.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Market Bubbles, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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With the subprime-induced global financial meltdown of 2008 and 2009, along with the dotcom implosion in the early 2000s resulting in the NASDAQ dropping by approximately 80%, it’s not surprising that most investors are constantly on guard against the bursting of bubbles and crashes ensuing. If one takes a step back,
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Chinese Lending Practices
I am reading with some fascination the incredible excesses that have been taking place in China with regard to terrible lending practices and widespread fraud. The unregulated banking system is clearly running amuck in China. Here is a very interesting link from Mish’s Global Economic Trends highlighting the massive problems unfolding with regard to loan guarantees not to being honored.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Manufacturing, Market Bubbles, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Maybe I’m writing about the dollar because I’m traveling abroad soon so it affects my pocketbook. It could also be due to the rather shockingly overt talking down of the dollar by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin in Davos.
“Obviously a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities,”
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Market Bubbles, News, Trends
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Is Mortgage Credit Too Tight – Ask Ben Bernanke
I must admit that I found it quite interesting (and entertaining) to read that Ben Bernanke could not refinance his house in Washington D.C. According to the article,
Bernanke already has refinanced twice. When the former Fed chair and his wife Anna bought their Capitol Hill rowhouse in May 2004,
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