I recently read a summary of an interesting piece of research that is somewhat counterintuitive at first glance but upon deeper reflection makes more sense and it’s the cornerstone for one of life’s great metaphors, you’ll see what I mean.
Little Bets -What We Can Afford to Lose vs.…
Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Uncategorized, Wealth
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A blog for the curious skeptic –
There’s nothing new under the sun
(or at least very little)
I’m a big fan of newspaperarchive.com. I have a rather anti-social hobby of often going back and reading old newspaper articles. Occasionally I come across some worth sharing. The following is one written on March 18,
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I’m on a bit of a slippery slope here. I take pride in producing a weekly blog almost without fail for the past 12 years. There are times when I am scratching my head for ideas or not feeling super inspired to write.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Stock History, Stock Market
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The bond market detests Donald Trump’s approach to tariffs.
Equally importantly, it appears that much of the American public does as well. This chart should scare Donald Trump as independent voters are now very concerned about inflation spiking in the near future.
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I have written a lot over the years about how global events and markets often follow the path of how one of Hemingway’s characters said he went bankrupt.
“How did you go bankrupt?”
Two ways.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Real Estate, Stock History, Stock Market, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Note: I was so absorbed in writing this blog while waiting for my connecting flight home at the Phoenix airport that I only realized after it was too late that I was at the wrong gate and that my flight was changed to a different gate in another terminal.
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Last week was a very bad week for the bond market, with some reprieve on Friday after a better-than-expected inflation report. This is a 5-day chart for the 10-year Treasury. Yields shot up by 0.20% after the Fed cut rates on the 18th and in the aftermath of Jay Powell’s press conference.
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A few months ago, we started the process to refinance a few of our variable-rate loans into 7-year, fixed-rate loans. The fixed rates are based on the 7-year Treasury plus a spread which has been in the range of 1.50%. Here is a chart of the 7-year Treasury that goes through September 16th.
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There’s an old joke about economists that asks what happens when you put 10 economists in a room. You get 10 opinions. Well, in predicting whether the Fed would cut the Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points or 50 basis points, they were virtually unanimous in their opinion,
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It’s been a challenging couple of years for apartment owners, but, as I have been writing about over the past year or so, there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel. This is because apartment construction while having been at historically high levels,
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