🎸 Don’t Look Back in Anger — Jerome Powell’s Pivot Ballad
Subtitle: A Fed Chair’s Lament in the Key of Regret
Intro: Leadership flows best when it’s adaptive,
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Blog Archives
A Jackson Hole Farewell
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave his annual Jackson Hole address last week. It’s almost assuredly his last one and is a fitting end to his tenure as it remained consistent with his personality and approach which is to be measured and flexible versus narcissistic and dogmatic.
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Little Bets -Should Highest Cost Debt Be Repaid First?
I recently read a summary of an interesting piece of research that is somewhat counterintuitive at first glance but upon deeper reflection makes more sense and it’s the cornerstone for one of life’s great metaphors, you’ll see what I mean.
Little Bets -What We Can Afford to Lose vs.…
New - Debt Worries - Then and Now
by 
Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Uncategorized, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Uncategorized, Wealth
No Comments ↓
A blog for the curious skeptic –
There’s nothing new under the sun
(or at least very little)
I’m a big fan of newspaperarchive.com. I have a rather anti-social hobby of often going back and reading old newspaper articles. Occasionally I come across some worth sharing. The following is one written on March 18,
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A Slippery Slope
I’m on a bit of a slippery slope here. I take pride in producing a weekly blog almost without fail for the past 12 years. There are times when I am scratching my head for ideas or not feeling super inspired to write.
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Method Behind the Madness?
by Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Stock History, Stock Market
1 Comment ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Stock History, Stock Market
1 Comment ↓
The bond market detests Donald Trump’s approach to tariffs.
Equally importantly, it appears that much of the American public does as well. This chart should scare Donald Trump as independent voters are now very concerned about inflation spiking in the near future.
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Gradually and Suddenly...Real Time
I have written a lot over the years about how global events and markets often follow the path of how one of Hemingway’s characters said he went bankrupt.
“How did you go bankrupt?”
Two ways.
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Confusion and the Need for Second-Level Thinking
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Real Estate, Stock History, Stock Market, Uncategorized, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Real Estate, Stock History, Stock Market, Uncategorized, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Note: I was so absorbed in writing this blog while waiting for my connecting flight home at the Phoenix airport that I only realized after it was too late that I was at the wrong gate and that my flight was changed to a different gate in another terminal.
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Data (co)-Dependence
Last week was a very bad week for the bond market, with some reprieve on Friday after a better-than-expected inflation report. This is a 5-day chart for the 10-year Treasury. Yields shot up by 0.20% after the Fed cut rates on the 18th and in the aftermath of Jay Powell’s press conference.
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To Fix or Not To Fix, That Is the Question
A few months ago, we started the process to refinance a few of our variable-rate loans into 7-year, fixed-rate loans. The fixed rates are based on the 7-year Treasury plus a spread which has been in the range of 1.50%. Here is a chart of the 7-year Treasury that goes through September 16th.
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