Blog Archives

No Need to Ever Fear Default, Only Inflation

Inflation-Default

There is so much concern about the level of our federal government debt and how will we ever repay it. That is one thing to never have to lose sleep over. The United States uses a currency (the dollar) that only it can produce, has no obligation to back its currency with anything other than its commitment to accept it to pay taxes that are owed,

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Focus on the Addition by the Elimination of Subtraction

Focus: Addition by the Elimination of Subtraction

Paul McCulley of PIMCO fame is one of the most interesting, entertaining, and thought-provoking communicators about complex financial subjects, especially in the realm of economics. He is particularly well known for his annual letter that transcribed very in-depth conversations he would have with his beloved pet rabbit Morgan le Fay (sadly deceased now) about pertinent issues concerning investors,

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Want Your Castle? Your Business Needs A Moat Around It!

Castle Moat

Einstein believed that the eighth wonder of the world was compound interest. The benefits of compounding are so powerful not only when it comes to money but also good habits. They build on each other through incremental gains and eventually, it snowballs into different forms of competitive advantage,

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Stable Genius?

Stable Genius Donald Trump

I read a very interesting theory about Donald Trump‘s master strategy when it comes to the trade war with China. Trump believes that he can win a trade war, but he can’t do it alone. He sees that the Chinese are reacting with an aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus to counter the negative impact of the trade war on their economy and believes the United States needs to do the same.

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Point Counterpoint - My Reaction to an Investors Memo

counterpointI received a memo from a very successful real estate developer and investor whose expertise is industrial properties. He produced a thoughtful memo as to why now is the time to take a pause from investing for fear that investor euphoria is elevated and there are unsustainable macro trends that pose a great risk to investors.

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I Didn't Build That!

Build

I have to confess that I’m feeling a bit guilty about something. A few weeks ago someone sent me a message on LinkedIn within 15 minutes (if not less) of me accepting his connection request. My usual experience with that one-two punch is not very favorable as it often relates to someone wanting to sell me something,

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Obsessed by Curves: Yield Curves that Is

yield curves

This is going to be a short blog post, given my travel schedule last week. I have been talking for a while now about the narrowing yield curve and the prospects for it inverting. The 10-year Treasury finally went lower than the 3-month Treasury bill,

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Cheap Trillion Dollar Insurance

stimulus Cheap Trillion Dollar Insurance

I’ve been pleasantly surprised so far with regard to how well our rent collections have held up since the onset of COVID and the corresponding economic carnage. On average, we’ve been collecting across our portfolio about 98% of what we have billed.

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Deep Freeze Skepticism

vaccine Deep Freeze Skepticism

Last Monday’s announcement by Pfizer that its Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing the illness sent an earthquake through financial markets, eliciting the worst day in history for momentum stocks. Momentum stocks have been the best performers and investors invest in them believing that strength creates more strength which will lead to outperformance.

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The China Syndrome - Contrarian Real Estate Opportunity? Perilous Times

Evergrande China Syndrome

China has been capturing a lot of headlines with the implosion of the country’s largest homebuilder, Evergrande. It has an estimated $300 billion in liabilities and approximately 1.4 million homes under construction or with deposits obligating them to build homes in the future.

Evergrande Group Insolvency

This is a big deal as a disorderly collapse of the Evergrande Group can have huge ramifications on the economy and social stability.

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