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Pedigree or Motivated Outsiders - Who Makes the Best Money Managers?

pedigree-or-motivativated outsiders

Carl Icahn has clearly done enormously well over the years in compounding capital through his highly aggressive, activist approach to investing. He is not shy about expressing his opinions, sometimes in a Trumpesque manner, to call out underperforming management teams, changes he thinks they should make to increase returns to shareholders and the performance of the business and to get more involved to either make changes and/or hold management teams more accountable.

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The Fix(ed)

Interest rate

I recently returned from the National Multifamily Housing Council conference in Las Vegas. I have been attending the conference since very early in my career, which makes me one of the pioneer attendees as the organization was fairly new then, and there were probably no more than 500 people at the conference in the early 1990s.

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Deconstructing Construction Employment

Construction Employment

Give me a word

Give me a sign

Show me where to look

Tell me, what will I find?

What will I find?

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And Yet

And Yet Labor Economy Government Bonds

Last week was pretty important in confirming the trend change in interest rates and solidifying a slowdown in economic activity. Evidence of the economy slowing is reflected in more U.S. firms cutting their earnings guidance versus raising them.

Number of US firms with corporate guidance announcements in 2022

As the above chart shows,

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No Need to Ever Fear Default, Only Inflation

Inflation-Default

There is so much concern about the level of our federal government debt and how will we ever repay it. That is one thing to never have to lose sleep over. The United States uses a currency (the dollar) that only it can produce, has no obligation to back its currency with anything other than its commitment to accept it to pay taxes that are owed,

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Focus on the Addition by the Elimination of Subtraction

Focus: Addition by the Elimination of Subtraction

Paul McCulley of PIMCO fame is one of the most interesting, entertaining, and thought-provoking communicators about complex financial subjects, especially in the realm of economics. He is particularly well known for his annual letter that transcribed very in-depth conversations he would have with his beloved pet rabbit Morgan le Fay (sadly deceased now) about pertinent issues concerning investors,

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Want Your Castle? Your Business Needs A Moat Around It!

Castle Moat

Einstein believed that the eighth wonder of the world was compound interest. The benefits of compounding are so powerful not only when it comes to money but also good habits. They build on each other through incremental gains and eventually, it snowballs into different forms of competitive advantage,

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Stable Genius?

Stable Genius Donald Trump

I read a very interesting theory about Donald Trump‘s master strategy when it comes to the trade war with China. Trump believes that he can win a trade war, but he can’t do it alone. He sees that the Chinese are reacting with an aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus to counter the negative impact of the trade war on their economy and believes the United States needs to do the same.

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Point Counterpoint - My Reaction to an Investors Memo

counterpointI received a memo from a very successful real estate developer and investor whose expertise is industrial properties. He produced a thoughtful memo as to why now is the time to take a pause from investing for fear that investor euphoria is elevated and there are unsustainable macro trends that pose a great risk to investors.

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I Didn't Build That!

Build

I have to confess that I’m feeling a bit guilty about something. A few weeks ago someone sent me a message on LinkedIn within 15 minutes (if not less) of me accepting his connection request. My usual experience with that one-two punch is not very favorable as it often relates to someone wanting to sell me something,

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