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Random Musings and Wonderful Memory Triggers

Memory Musing Spanish Flu

This is one of those weeks where I don’t have anything pressing I feel I need to convey or work through to gain clarity so I thought I would share some random thoughts related to the coronavirus, surveying data, economic reports, and health tip. 

Coronavirus vs.

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Down with Housing

Down with Housing

With the renewed runup in interest rates, I thought it would be appropriate to revisit the homeownership market via a frenzy of charts. Of course, all real estate is local, but these overall trends are pretty powerful, so it would be unusual for most markets to be immune to them.

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Bond Market Skepticism & Emerging Market Carnage

I couldn’t stay away from interest rates for too long. Last week was very fascinating. There was a lot of news that should have been quite bearish for long-term bonds but instead, yields moved down by about 5 basis points for the week for the 10-year Treasury note.

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Pedigree or Motivated Outsiders - Who Makes the Best Money Managers?

pedigree-or-motivativated outsiders

Carl Icahn has clearly done enormously well over the years in compounding capital through his highly aggressive, activist approach to investing. He is not shy about expressing his opinions, sometimes in a Trumpesque manner, to call out underperforming management teams, changes he thinks they should make to increase returns to shareholders and the performance of the business and to get more involved to either make changes and/or hold management teams more accountable.

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The Fix(ed)

Interest rate

I recently returned from the National Multifamily Housing Council conference in Las Vegas. I have been attending the conference since very early in my career, which makes me one of the pioneer attendees as the organization was fairly new then, and there were probably no more than 500 people at the conference in the early 1990s.

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Deconstructing Construction Employment

Construction Employment

Give me a word

Give me a sign

Show me where to look

Tell me, what will I find?

What will I find?

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And Yet

And Yet Labor Economy Government Bonds

Last week was pretty important in confirming the trend change in interest rates and solidifying a slowdown in economic activity. Evidence of the economy slowing is reflected in more U.S. firms cutting their earnings guidance versus raising them.

Number of US firms with corporate guidance announcements in 2022

As the above chart shows,

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No Need to Ever Fear Default, Only Inflation

Inflation-Default

There is so much concern about the level of our federal government debt and how will we ever repay it. That is one thing to never have to lose sleep over. The United States uses a currency (the dollar) that only it can produce, has no obligation to back its currency with anything other than its commitment to accept it to pay taxes that are owed,

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Focus on the Addition by the Elimination of Subtraction

Focus: Addition by the Elimination of Subtraction

Paul McCulley of PIMCO fame is one of the most interesting, entertaining, and thought-provoking communicators about complex financial subjects, especially in the realm of economics. He is particularly well known for his annual letter that transcribed very in-depth conversations he would have with his beloved pet rabbit Morgan le Fay (sadly deceased now) about pertinent issues concerning investors,

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Want Your Castle? Your Business Needs A Moat Around It!

Castle Moat

Einstein believed that the eighth wonder of the world was compound interest. The benefits of compounding are so powerful not only when it comes to money but also good habits. They build on each other through incremental gains and eventually, it snowballs into different forms of competitive advantage,

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