Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, News, Uncategorized, Wealth
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The Fed finally raised short-term interest rates last week. The market is expecting a very fast and steep rate hike cycle as this chart shows. This is a far cry from Powell reiterating that the Fed wouldn’t raise rates until the end of 2023 at the earliest.
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I think the following headline juxtaposed with the graph below summarizes the incredible tension facing the U.S. economy. On the one hand, we have a very robust labor market producing a large number of jobs.
And yet, 10-year Treasury yields dropped like a rock after the employment report was released.
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I’m going to get on my soapbox for this post. I was talking to a friend who was picking my brain about banking relationships as he was thinking about switching banks for his business and he wanted to know about the one I use.
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One of the great books I’ve read about marketing is Positioning by Ries and Trout. It is considered a classic and one of the definitive books on the subject. The authors make the simple assertion that marketing is ultimately about accepting that perception is the reality.
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Last week’s CPI report sent shockwaves through bond markets. It came in extremely hot.
Other inflation indicators are running very hot as well.
Interest rates have gone up incredibly fast as investors fear a very hawkish Federal Reserve.
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Hey, don’t you worry, I’ve been lied to
I’ve been here many times before
Girl, don’t you worry, I know where I stand
I don’t need this love,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Market Bubbles, Uncategorized, Wealth
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The Fed blinked and acknowledged that inflation may not be transitory. When combined with its perception that the labor market is on the way to being healed, Jerome Powell has moved up the Fed’s estimate of the first rate hike by more than a year.
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With the Omicron variant, originally called Nu, capturing global headlines and concern that it is so different from other variants due to the number of mutations it possesses, there is deep concern that the global economy will go back into lockdown mode.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Investing, Personal, Travel, Uncategorized
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I was in London last week for my first international trip since March 2020. It was nice to be overseas again. Given time constraints I will target sharing more of a pictorial journey of my trip after I get back. I like keeping a travel log via this blog as it can serve as a diary of my excursions around the world and gives me a place I can return to if I want to revisit some of those trips.
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Our supply chain debacle is front and center for virtually every person in the U.S. in one way or another. This chart is fascinating to me in that orders are now about 5% above previous cycle peaks.
And yet,
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