Blog Archives

Influence People’s Perceptions - Can You Shape Their Reality?

Reality-Baseball

One of the great books I’ve read about marketing is Positioning by Ries and Trout. It is considered a classic and one of the definitive books on the subject. The authors make the simple assertion that marketing is ultimately about accepting that perception is the reality.

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A Demand Pull Boomcession

Boomcession

Last week’s CPI report sent shockwaves through bond markets. It came in extremely hot.

US CPI YoY 2005 - 2020

Other inflation indicators are running very hot as well.

Median Consumer price index 2004 - 2022 Boomcession

Interest rates have gone up incredibly fast as investors fear a very hawkish Federal Reserve.

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Minutes by Minutes - FOMC

Federal Reserve angry with Jerome Powell

Hey, don’t you worry, I’ve been lied to

I’ve been here many times before

Girl, don’t you worry, I know where I stand

I don’t need this love,

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It's Getting Interesting

Interest Rate

The Fed blinked and acknowledged that inflation may not be transitory. When combined with its perception that the labor market is on the way to being healed, Jerome Powell has moved up the Fed’s estimate of the first rate hike by more than a year.

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Nu Cases and A London Travel Log

London Omicron Travel log

With the Omicron variant, originally called Nu, capturing global headlines and concern that it is so different from other variants due to the number of mutations it possesses, there is deep concern that the global economy will go back into lockdown mode.

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Cats in London (Not the Play)

Gary in London with Beer in November 2021

I was in London last week for my first international trip since March 2020. It was nice to be overseas again. Given time constraints I will target sharing more of a pictorial journey of my trip after I get back. I like keeping a travel log via this blog as it can serve as a diary of my excursions around the world and gives me a place I can return to if I want to revisit some of those trips.

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Supply Chain Woes - An On The Ground Perspective

supply chain

Our supply chain debacle is front and center for virtually every person in the U.S. in one way or another. This chart is fascinating to me in that orders are now about 5% above previous cycle peaks. 

Manufacturers New Orders Excluding Transportation ($mm) 2005 - 2021 Supply Chain

And yet,

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A Graphical Extravaganza with a Little Hemingway Thrown in

I thought I would return to a post focusing on charts that I found compelling this past week. The Fed is now telegraphing an imminent slowdown of its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The reaction of bond investors led to a narrowing of the yield curve.

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Energy Crunch - The Co(a)ld Hard Facts and Opportunities

Energy Crunch - The Co(a)ld Hard Facts and Opportunities

One can see that natural gas has gained the most market share of the world energy supply between 1973-2019. Oil’s share has dropped quite significantly during this same time frame. With that being said the second chart shows that it has still grown materially but not nearly as much as natural gas and nuclear.

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Soar with your Strengths, Not your Passions: More Advice for your Kids

public speaking Soar with your Strengths, Not your Passions

A few years ago I did 23andMe. I was not only curious about my ancestry but what medical risks might be present based on my DNA. Fortunately, I don’t appear to be predisposed to any serious ailments. Over the course of its many years in business,

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