Given how hot the housing market is there are understandable concerns as to whether we are in a bubble. Bloomberg Businessweek had a good article addressing some of these concerns that included some interesting charts.
This first one shows how the cumulative appreciation over the last five years has matched that of the bubble years of 2002-7.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock Market, Uncategorized, Wealth
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I have been turning to charts more regularly for my weekly blog posts than I have in the past. Like most people, I see many of the challenges and price pressures resulting from the massively disrupted global supply chain. It shows up in terribly unreliable contractors (I’m having a pool built so I am experiencing this first hand) and the significant increase in the cost of materials that are leading to the rationing of some goods like plywood and even chlorine.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Uncategorized
1 Comment ↓
The multi-trillion dollar question is whether inflation is transitory. The Fed and other central bankers believe it is as this chart depicts.
As I’ve written about before, the Fed’s reaction function has switched from a forecasting-based approach to one that is now outcomes-focused in terms of needing to see tangible improvements occurring on Main Street even if it leads to speculation and large rewards on Wall Street.
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The following was one of the headlines on Marketwatch.com on May 5, 2014:
10-year Treasury yield hits lowest of year
U.S. government debt extends last week’s rally
This was after a strong jobs report on May 2,
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33 days after my heart surgery I resumed playing tennis. Of course, it was not at the same level or intensity as it was prior to my surgery but it was great to get back on the court nonetheless.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock Market, Wealth
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Although I’m in the camp that the Fed will stick to its word and not raise short-term interest rates until after 2023 at the earliest, the market is betting differently. Rather than focusing on when the Fed will start raising rates, let’s assume that they will.
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The first quarter was incredibly ugly for bond investors, particularly those with exposure to longer-maturity ones. Bond investors were not happy as Treasuries generated the worst quarterly return since 1980.
So who were the big sellers of Treasuries?
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Wealth
2 Comments ↓
[UPDATE] 3:00 PM Egypt – 6 AM PST the Ever Given was refloated and is on the move again. Credit is given to the full moon bringing the spring higher tides, 14 tug boats, and the 27,000 meters of sand removed. The following was written prior to this news.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Stock Market
1 Comment ↓
Well, I won’t back down
No, I won’t back down
You can stand me up at the gates of hell
But I won’t back down
No,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Manufacturing, News, Trends, Wealth
1 Comment ↓
This week will be another one focused on charts and graphs that caught my attention. The emphasis will be on the story of the Fed remaining very dovish in spite of what appears to be some pockets of economic strength (e.g. housing, commodities, semiconductors),
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