Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, News, Uncategorized, Wealth
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The Fed finally raised short-term interest rates last week. The market is expecting a very fast and steep rate hike cycle as this chart shows. This is a far cry from Powell reiterating that the Fed wouldn’t raise rates until the end of 2023 at the earliest.
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Investors are always asking the question what inning are we in when it comes to where we are in a particular cycle. It’s a pertinent question related to housing as it has had a tremendous run in terms of home price appreciation, equity build-up among homeowners, and tremendous profits for builders and investors.
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Hey, don’t you worry, I’ve been lied to
I’ve been here many times before
Girl, don’t you worry, I know where I stand
I don’t need this love,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Market Bubbles, Uncategorized, Wealth
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The Fed blinked and acknowledged that inflation may not be transitory. When combined with its perception that the labor market is on the way to being healed, Jerome Powell has moved up the Fed’s estimate of the first rate hike by more than a year.
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The answer? See for yourself, is it inflation or housing or both?
If Google Trends are any indication then inflation has been a top-of-mind topic.
CPI – Consumer Price Index
This is not surprising as one has to be a survivalist living far away from civilization and fully self-sufficient to have not been impacted by rising prices and slower delivery and service times.
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Last week was my 34th anniversary at CWS. I have been so fortunate to have had the opportunity to work with so many wonderful people over all of these years and to be blessed with my amazing partners Steve and Mike.
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Investing has some parallels with driving. It’s important to have a destination that keeps you on course. I think of the destination as financial goals rooted in thoughtful consideration of powerful trends upon which to capitalize such that the wind can be put at your back while also being fully cognizant of what exposures you may have that can lead to a permanent loss of capital based on shorter-term issues arising.
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I keep focusing my blog posts on economic data via chart representation because we’re in one of those times that needs to be monitored closely for trend reversals (disinflation to inflation) and a change in the Fed’s reaction function (supporting Main Street vs Wall Street).
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Given how hot the housing market is there are understandable concerns as to whether we are in a bubble. Bloomberg Businessweek had a good article addressing some of these concerns that included some interesting charts.
This first one shows how the cumulative appreciation over the last five years has matched that of the bubble years of 2002-7.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock Market, Uncategorized, Wealth
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I have been turning to charts more regularly for my weekly blog posts than I have in the past. Like most people, I see many of the challenges and price pressures resulting from the massively disrupted global supply chain. It shows up in terribly unreliable contractors (I’m having a pool built so I am experiencing this first hand) and the significant increase in the cost of materials that are leading to the rationing of some goods like plywood and even chlorine.
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