Investing has some parallels with driving. It’s important to have a destination that keeps you on course. I think of the destination as financial goals rooted in thoughtful consideration of powerful trends upon which to capitalize such that the wind can be put at your back while also being fully cognizant of what exposures you may have that can lead to a permanent loss of capital based on shorter-term issues arising.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock Market, Uncategorized, Wealth
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I have been turning to charts more regularly for my weekly blog posts than I have in the past. Like most people, I see many of the challenges and price pressures resulting from the massively disrupted global supply chain. It shows up in terribly unreliable contractors (I’m having a pool built so I am experiencing this first hand) and the significant increase in the cost of materials that are leading to the rationing of some goods like plywood and even chlorine.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Uncategorized
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The multi-trillion dollar question is whether inflation is transitory. The Fed and other central bankers believe it is as this chart depicts.
As I’ve written about before, the Fed’s reaction function has switched from a forecasting-based approach to one that is now outcomes-focused in terms of needing to see tangible improvements occurring on Main Street even if it leads to speculation and large rewards on Wall Street.
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Economic growth is projected to increase quite substantially now that the $1.9 trillion stimulus has been passed. The following chart shows that economists are forecasting the strongest growth since the Reagan years.
Not surprisingly, a lot of this projected growth is predicated on the spending of built-up savings from multiple stimulus packages that have passed and been disbursed.
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Not surprisingly, one of the ways of occupying my time while recovering from my heart surgery has been to dive into all of the different content options on the streaming services. Despite the myriad of choices, I have found very little to watch and that is really more particular to me in that I have a hard time starting a series and being committed to finishing it.
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This week I revisit one of my favorite concepts discussed in the book: The Munger Moment. The video discusses what I mean by this. For those of you who either prefer to read about the concept or have the video amplified by the key points, here you go.
What is a Munger Moment
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“I am a man more sinned against than sinning”
― William Shakespeare, King Lear
Last week’s events made me think about how important it is to understand people’s personality profiles if you are going to be relying on them.
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“Oh what a tangled web we weave.”
-Sir Walter Scott
With 2020 in the rearview mirror, we would all love to put Covid behind us. Unfortunately, the virus doesn’t work on a calendar.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Investing, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized
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In The March of Folly author Barbara Tuchman defines folly as acts that are clearly contrary to the self-interest of the organization or group pursuing them. It would seem like the Fed would fall into this definition. Its mandate is full employment and price stability while also providing prudent financial oversight to minimize the risks of financial contagion (I added the third one).
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Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Manufacturing, News, Stock Market, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
1 Comment ↓
The jobs report released on Friday was disappointing.
Disappointing Job Growth
Perhaps the report shouldn’t have been such a surprise on the downside based on this chart.
It would appear that job seekers are less confident about their prospects as they have significantly reduced their searches.
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