Like many others, I have been looking for where cracks in the financial system might appear catalyzed by the aggressive Federal Reserve rate hiking policy and balance sheet contraction. And while the housing market has been an obvious sacrificial lamb via much higher mortgage rates,
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I couldn’t stay away from interest rates for too long. Last week was very fascinating. There was a lot of news that should have been quite bearish for long-term bonds but instead, yields moved down by about 5 basis points for the week for the 10-year Treasury note.
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2023 is already shaping up to be the year when the tsunami of office building defaults, foreclosures, and large losses for lenders and equity investors comes on with full force. Cracks have already appeared, and it is only going to get worse. The office building sector is impaired,
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I recently returned from the National Multifamily Housing Council conference in Las Vegas. I have been attending the conference since very early in my career, which makes me one of the pioneer attendees as the organization was fairly new then, and there were probably no more than 500 people at the conference in the early 1990s.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, Trends, Wealth
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Last week was pretty important in confirming the trend change in interest rates and solidifying a slowdown in economic activity. Evidence of the economy slowing is reflected in more U.S. firms cutting their earnings guidance versus raising them.
As the above chart shows,
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There is so much concern about the level of our federal government debt and how will we ever repay it. That is one thing to never have to lose sleep over. The United States uses a currency (the dollar) that only it can produce, has no obligation to back its currency with anything other than its commitment to accept it to pay taxes that are owed,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Uncategorized, Wealth
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I’ve been pleasantly surprised so far with regard to how well our rent collections have held up since the onset of COVID and the corresponding economic carnage. On average, we’ve been collecting across our portfolio about 98% of what we have billed.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Stock Market
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One can see from the following charts from Sentimentrader.com that the last 100 trading days have been one of the worst periods in terms of stock returns in modern history.
And while the jury is still out as to whether we will have a recession over the next year,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Labor, News, Real Estate
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I think this chart is what keeps Jay Powell up at night. If he were convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that we were still in the same low inflation regime that had been present for decades prior to Covid,
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I saw ten thousand talkers whose tongues were all broken
I saw guns and sharp swords in the hands of young children
And it’s a hard, and it’s a hard,
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