Blog Archives

Houston - We Have A Problem!

Harvey-Hurricane-Harvey

With the extraordinary events that took place in Houston, southeast Texas, and Louisiana as a result of Hurricane Harvey I felt that it was much more relevant to discuss this catastrophe versus part two of demographics and interest rates emphasizing Japan.

Houston: Hurricane Harvey

An estimated 27 trillion gallons of water has blanketed southeast Texas and parts of Louisiana.

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It's Got to Get Better in a Little While...Or Does it?

better

Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio have both come out and said that despite America being such a strong country and performing well economically, not all is right when looking under the hood.

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Inflexibility When you Need it Least

Inflexibility

I have often made the case that apartments and home rentals are highly valuable because of the flexibility they provide people to move for whatever reason. Housing became way over-owned in the 2000s and this did great damage to our economy and society. I finally came across some interesting research that explored how damaging it was for underwater homeowners in terms of limiting their geographic flexibility to seek out employment and how this impacted their long-term earning power.

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Winner Take Most - Can Firms Gain a Large Share of the Market?

Google Firms

Income inequality has many economic and societal impacts. When more wealth is concentrated in fewer hands, this can negatively impact aggregate demand as a large percentage of marginal dollars earned are saved versus spent. And since one person’s spending is another person’s income, a growing pool of savings will lower aggregate demand unless one or more sectors of the economy spend more than it earns as output will go unsold and have to be marked down for it to clear.

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Standing on the Shoulders of Giants Part 1

Standing-Giants-Shoulders

Sir Isaac Newton famously said in 1676,

“If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.”

Scientific advancement and all forms of knowledge and innovation is cumulative and does not happen in a vacuum.

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Good Intentions and The Lollapalooza Effect

Lollapalooza EffectThe old adage is that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. As Ben Graham said, it’s not the bad ideas that do you in, but the good ideas that go too far that can do the most damage. A perfect example of this was the drive for more Americans to own homes,

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Men, Women, and the Value of Doing Nothing

woman vs. men

Let us put men and women together

See which one is smarter

Some say men, but I say no

The women got the men like a puppet show

It ain’t me –

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The Positive Power Of Network Effects on Real Estate

Network Effects

Network effects are extraordinarily powerful. The more people that join the network, the more valuable it becomes to be part of the network, which leads to more people joining. Entrenched, valuable networks are very hard to dislodge and offer great competitive advantages. Think of Facebook,

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Housing - Under-Supplied, Over-Supplied, or In Balance?

Housing

It is notoriously difficult to separate the signal from the noise when it comes to investing. What information is truly meaningful enough to take action that can lead to making money or avoiding loss versus useless information that leads to decisions which bluff us in or out and lead to lost opportunity or losing money? 

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The Skyscraper Indicator - Is the Luxury Home Bubble Bursting?

skyscraper-indicator

A little while back I read an article by Ron Insana regarding New York luxury condos and how he believed that the top was in and the bubble was bursting. This is in conjunction with another article I read on Bloomberg.com about the weakening London luxury home market.

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