Last week was my 34th anniversary at CWS. I have been so fortunate to have had the opportunity to work with so many wonderful people over all of these years and to be blessed with my amazing partners Steve and Mike.
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Blog Archives
An Improving Labor Market and A Fascinating Real Time Experiment
I started getting into the flow and writing about some epiphanies I had on the tennis court that I was planning on sharing this week. And then the jobs report came out on Friday and I saw the reaction of the bond market to what appeared to be a strong report and I felt like I had to do one more chart-oriented blog.
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Keep your Eyes on the Road but Never Lose Sight of the Destination
Investing has some parallels with driving. It’s important to have a destination that keeps you on course. I think of the destination as financial goals rooted in thoughtful consideration of powerful trends upon which to capitalize such that the wind can be put at your back while also being fully cognizant of what exposures you may have that can lead to a permanent loss of capital based on shorter-term issues arising.
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You Can't Divorce the Observer from the Observed
I keep focusing my blog posts on economic data via chart representation because we’re in one of those times that needs to be monitored closely for trend reversals (disinflation to inflation) and a change in the Fed’s reaction function (supporting Main Street vs Wall Street).
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Housing - No Bubble but Hitting a Wall?
Given how hot the housing market is there are understandable concerns as to whether we are in a bubble. Bloomberg Businessweek had a good article addressing some of these concerns that included some interesting charts.
This first one shows how the cumulative appreciation over the last five years has matched that of the bubble years of 2002-7.
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D(ata)-Day
by 
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock Market, Uncategorized, Wealth
2 Comments ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock Market, Uncategorized, Wealth
2 Comments ↓
I have been turning to charts more regularly for my weekly blog posts than I have in the past. Like most people, I see many of the challenges and price pressures resulting from the massively disrupted global supply chain. It shows up in terribly unreliable contractors (I’m having a pool built so I am experiencing this first hand) and the significant increase in the cost of materials that are leading to the rationing of some goods like plywood and even chlorine.
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A Deeper Dive into Housing
Last week I discussed the possibility that housing could be the canary in the coal mine with regard to an important area of the economy starting to be impacted by higher prices. I wanted to go more in-depth with many more housing-related charts and then end with one non-housing chart that I think trumps everything else in terms of why I think the Fed will remain on hold in terms of raising rates.
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Infinite Games – Painting Your Masterpiece
It is hard to be a patient long-term investor when the long-term is comprised of a series of often volatile short-terms. This requires great emotional and intestinal fortitude to hang in there when one sees his or her net worth dropping quite rapidly. It is very difficult when markets are volatile and dropping seemingly endlessly to know if those long-hoped-for positive signals may be the light at the end of the tunnel or the train coming at you.
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Transitioning to Transitory Inflation?
by Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Uncategorized
1 Comment ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Uncategorized
1 Comment ↓
The multi-trillion dollar question is whether inflation is transitory. The Fed and other central bankers believe it is as this chart depicts.
As I’ve written about before, the Fed’s reaction function has switched from a forecasting-based approach to one that is now outcomes-focused in terms of needing to see tangible improvements occurring on Main Street even if it leads to speculation and large rewards on Wall Street.
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Choose One's Models Carefully
Japan has been my model for why I think interest rates will stay low. Its rapidly aging society has led to a shrinking pool of labor over the last two decades which has led to less consumption and more savings. In addition, public spending has increased significantly to help keep the economy growing in the face of strong demographic headwinds.
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