June is the start of the North American hurricane season. So why did I reference the hurricane season? Not because of its impact on insurance rates, although we do follow them because costly years can affect the price of coverage the following year for property owners. I bring it up because I read an article citing a fascinating study that has some application to investing and the biases to which we’re all susceptible.
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There was a very interesting Forbes profile of Jeffrey Gundlach, the new reigning bond king. He’s the founder of DoubleLine Capital, which is now one of the pre-eminent money managers in the world focusing on fixed income investments. Gundlach is a brilliant and outspoken individual who doesn’t suffer fools easily.
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I have had somewhat of a morbid fascination trying to ascertain the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and everyday life. Information hasn’t been that easy to come by. The most public evidence that Russia has been holding up comes from still robust revenues from energy exports and the surprising strength of the ruble.
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We finally had a CPI report that the market responded favorably to. The prior six releases led to market losses. Last week’s report led to a nice gain.
As an aside, this chart shows how incredibly fast margin debt went up and now down during the bear market that just took place.
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“Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate. It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Real Estate
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The evidence seems to be increasingly persuasive that economic growth is slowing materially. This is from the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which has a good track record of identifying turns in the business cycle. Its Weekly Leading Index is clearly showing a negative growth rate.
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I greatly enjoyed watching the Wimbledon finals between Novak Djokovic and Nick Kyrgios. Novak has won numerous Wimbledon championships, while Nick has never been in the final of a major despite having enormous talent. Djokovic is incredibly disciplined, committed, consistent, and has amazing mental fortitude and problem-solving skills.
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The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs Wade understandably elicited a huge wave of outcry (pro and con). One of the most controversial aspects of the decision was the seeming disregard for Court precedent and how it was perceived by legal experts to have been tossed aside.
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Preface: This turned out far longer than I was expecting but so it goes.
One of the more profound lyrics of the Grateful Dead is “Once in a while you can get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.” That has played out throughout much of my life with epiphanies and insights from unexpected sources that have altered my path,
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I was going to do a bit of a travelogue from my trip to London but one vital lesson I have come to learn in life is the importance and power of commitments. When one makes a commitment then it often requires preparation to honor that commitment.
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