The question is sort of in the same genre of “if a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it is it sound?” I’m not going to wrestle with that one publicly. But what I do wonder about now that I have a pedometer and forget to wear it,
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Blog Archives
Labor Market Inflection Point
Last week was my 34th anniversary at CWS. I have been so fortunate to have had the opportunity to work with so many wonderful people over all of these years and to be blessed with my amazing partners Steve and Mike.
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The Cost of Verbosity Amplified by Succinct Graphical Displays of A Strongly Improving Apartment Market
Mark Twain once said, “I didn’t have time to write you a short letter, so I wrote a long one.”
When writing (and speaking) it’s fairly easy to let the words flow without much regard to precisely communicating. If one gets into a stream of consciousness state it can be helpful for the writer and speaker to release what’s welling up inside but this may not be what’s best for the reader or listener in terms of communicating clearly,
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Stress for Success - But Not Necessarily For Your Health
In a recent interview on Bloomberg Television, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick, was asked what he thought about young investment bankers complaining that they were being overworked.
The headline for an article about the interview captures his opinion quite succinctly.
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Grateful Dead Open Source Business Model One of the Most Successful
Yes, I am a fan of the Grateful Dead. There was a period of time when they occupied an important part of my life when I was traveling to see many shows with friends and immersed in the Dead community. While I didn’t care much for some of the personal grooming habits,
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You Can't Divorce the Observer from the Observed
I keep focusing my blog posts on economic data via chart representation because we’re in one of those times that needs to be monitored closely for trend reversals (disinflation to inflation) and a change in the Fed’s reaction function (supporting Main Street vs Wall Street).
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A Deeper Dive into Housing
Last week I discussed the possibility that housing could be the canary in the coal mine with regard to an important area of the economy starting to be impacted by higher prices. I wanted to go more in-depth with many more housing-related charts and then end with one non-housing chart that I think trumps everything else in terms of why I think the Fed will remain on hold in terms of raising rates.
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Infinite Games – Painting Your Masterpiece
It is hard to be a patient long-term investor when the long-term is comprised of a series of often volatile short-terms. This requires great emotional and intestinal fortitude to hang in there when one sees his or her net worth dropping quite rapidly. It is very difficult when markets are volatile and dropping seemingly endlessly to know if those long-hoped-for positive signals may be the light at the end of the tunnel or the train coming at you.
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Transitioning to Transitory Inflation?
by 
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Uncategorized
1 Comment ↓
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Uncategorized
1 Comment ↓
The multi-trillion dollar question is whether inflation is transitory. The Fed and other central bankers believe it is as this chart depicts.
As I’ve written about before, the Fed’s reaction function has switched from a forecasting-based approach to one that is now outcomes-focused in terms of needing to see tangible improvements occurring on Main Street even if it leads to speculation and large rewards on Wall Street.
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Choose One's Models Carefully
Japan has been my model for why I think interest rates will stay low. Its rapidly aging society has led to a shrinking pool of labor over the last two decades which has led to less consumption and more savings. In addition, public spending has increased significantly to help keep the economy growing in the face of strong demographic headwinds.
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