Blog Archives

A Demand Pull Boomcession

Boomcession

Last week’s CPI report sent shockwaves through bond markets. It came in extremely hot.

US CPI YoY 2005 - 2020

Other inflation indicators are running very hot as well.

Median Consumer price index 2004 - 2022 Boomcession

Interest rates have gone up incredibly fast as investors fear a very hawkish Federal Reserve.

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Housing: What Inning Are We in?

Housing innings apartments interest rates

Investors are always asking the question what inning are we in when it comes to where we are in a particular cycle. It’s a pertinent question related to housing as it has had a tremendous run in terms of home price appreciation, equity build-up among homeowners, and tremendous profits for builders and investors.

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R.I.P. Bob Saget and Developing a Guest/Host Mindset

Bob Saget

For whatever reason, I was really struggling with what to write this week. Yes, I admit that this does happen.  I then started reflecting on the previous week and one of the attention-grabbing events and there was one that particularly impacted my kids, especially my daughter.

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Minutes by Minutes - FOMC

Federal Reserve angry with Jerome Powell

Hey, don’t you worry, I’ve been lied to

I’ve been here many times before

Girl, don’t you worry, I know where I stand

I don’t need this love,

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Focus on the Task at Hand - Big, Audacious Goals

Goals

Some people are big proponents of setting big, audacious goals. Dream big because if you don’t then you will just get the same old ordinary results as everyone else. The reality is, however, that most people are just like everyone else. And there is nothing wrong with that.

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A Beautiful Partnership Built on A Long and Winding Road

The Beatles

Before I start, I wanted to provide a link to an interview I did a few months ago that was recently broadcast. Hopefully, you will enjoy it if you take the time to watch or listen to it.

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An Unfolding Story - Profound Loss and Gratitude 3 Years After

Roneet Carmell

Milestones represent opportunities to reflect. Some are happy events while others can be quite devastating, with many in between. Three years ago my wife of nearly 30 years, Roneet, passed away. It was so unexpected and untimely that it brought me,

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Powerful Lessons from Tennis in the Desert

Tennis in the Dessert

I had the incredible pleasure of attending the BNP Paribas tennis tournament in Indian Wells, California. It is a beautiful facility and was purchased by Larry Ellison in 2009 and he has spared no expense to have it live up to the vision of it being a tennis paradise.

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A Graphical Extravaganza with a Little Hemingway Thrown in

I thought I would return to a post focusing on charts that I found compelling this past week. The Fed is now telegraphing an imminent slowdown of its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The reaction of bond investors led to a narrowing of the yield curve.

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Energy Crunch - The Co(a)ld Hard Facts and Opportunities

Energy Crunch - The Co(a)ld Hard Facts and Opportunities

One can see that natural gas has gained the most market share of the world energy supply between 1973-2019. Oil’s share has dropped quite significantly during this same time frame. With that being said the second chart shows that it has still grown materially but not nearly as much as natural gas and nuclear.

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