Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Last week were engaged in our annual planning process. As part of this, we come up with key assumptions regarding the operating environment for the next three years or so. Interest rates, of course, are a huge variable in our business and dominated much of the discussion.
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“What is elementary, worldly wisdom? Well, the first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang ‘em back. If the facts don’t hang together on a latticework of theory, you don’t have them in a usable form.”
— Charlie Munger
For me,
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Scott Adams is someone I follow and I appreciate his insights about persuasion and human nature. He often says that everyone is living their own movie. They write the scripts and they have cast them with characters they have developed with personalities they have created for them.
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With rent control being passed in California, Oregon, and New York, government intervention in rental housing is heating up. This is something we have been predicting for a number of years given the housing shortage and relatively stagnant wages for lower to middle-income earners. We also had a lot of experience with it when we owned manufacturing housing communities where it was much more widespread than apartments so we had a sense of the conditions that would lend itself to rent control pressures.
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Please note that since the S.E.C. thinks some of my blogs crossover in terms of promoting CWS or making investment recommendations, they now need to be reviewed by our Chief Compliance Officer before being posted. As a result, after this week I anticipate that future blogs will be posted on Tuesday.
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I was in Austin a couple of weeks ago and had a very interesting cab driver who looked like one of the wild and crazy guys from the classic Saturday Night Live skits played by Dan Ackroyd and Steve Martin as the two brothers from Czechoslovakia.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Investing, News, Stock History, Stock Market, Trends
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It’s been a brutal couple of weeks for Treasuries as the following headline from Bloomberg attests to on September 13th.
10-year yields bottomed on a closing basis on September 3rd at 1.47% and have shot back up to 1.90% as of September 13th.
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Roneet used to say that you have to be healthy in order to be sick. She was spot on. I, fortunately, don’t get sick very much but last week was one in which I was fighting my annual cold. It usually lasts five to seven days and then I’m back to good health.
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The market didn’t react very well to Jerome Powell’s characterization of Wednesday’s interest rate reduction as a “mid-cycle adjustment.” Investors took that to be a bearish easing of monetary policy. The stock market dropped, the bond market took a future interest rate reduction off of the table,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Investing, News, Philanthropy, Uncategorized, Wealth
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I was in New York City in 2015 and stayed near Carnegie Hall which is fitting since I wrote about Andrew Carnegie last week and plan to continue with discussing him again this week. Carnegie Hall is one of the great legacies he left behind.
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