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Get a Clue - Bob Dylan Rolling Thunder Revue

Bob Dylan

Sometimes the answers are available to us if we just pay attention and think more expansively to connect the dots. I watched the new Bob Dylan documentary about his 1975 tour called Rolling Thunder Revue.

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Wisdom of Yogi Canseco? Japan's Negative Interest Rates

Canseco-Yen

A few very insightful tweets came out of a very unexpected place after the Bank of Japan waded into the waters of negative interest rates. It was from none other than Jose Canseco, the former home run king, wrestler, and iconoclast. This is what he had to say courtesy of Business Insider:

Jose Canseco

He is pretty much spot on in asserting that negative interest rates have a deflationary impact.

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Much Ado About LIBOR

Last week my daughter and I went to see the Improvised Shakespeare Company in Los Angeles. Wow, what a mind-blowing experience that was. It was extraordinary to see the four actors take an idea thrown out to them by the audience and turn it into a 90 minute Shakespeare play.

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Never Stop Questioning

Never Stop Questioning Gary Carmell

It was my great pleasure and honor to attend my daughter’s high school graduation last week. It was such a beautiful and moving ceremony and a tremendous accomplishment for her. She truly gave blood, sweat, and tears to get to this point. The ceremony was steeped in tradition as she graduated from a girls school that was founded in 1889.

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Will The Fed Slash Interest Rates? When the Levee Breaks

Interest Rates cut 2019

As the following headline shows, interest rates fell quite sharply on Friday to current cycle lows in the wake of a very weak non-farm employment report.

10-year Treasury yield plunges

One can see how inverted the 10-year Treasury note yield has become versus the 3-month T-bill yield in the following chart.

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German Negativity

German Yield

Mohamed El-Erian, the former CEO of PIMCO, said recently on CNBC that if you want to know what’s going to happen to U.S. long-term interest rates, then all you have to do is look to Germany. And so that is what I did.

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Fire My Metaphor for Earnings News: Catalytic Regeneration

Canyon Fire earnings news

There’s a regional park near my house that I like to hike. It has beautiful scenery, a lot of hills, and a number of people on the trails that conveys a feeling of community and self-care. Its topography and large size allow for many different trail options in terms of length,

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Oil Dropped Below $60-Markets Do Not Ignore Oil

Oil

[Updated: April 13, 2016] I touched on the global markets having a whiff of deflation two weeks ago in this blog. It seems to have picked up speed. Today the Dow dropped by 300 points and 10-year Treasury yields dropped to much lower levels (2.08%) in the wake of a pretty spectacular drop in oil since August but really accelerating in October.

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Stressless Stress for Commercial Real Estate Investors

Stress-Free-Investing

“When clouds appear, wise men put on their cloaks.” – Shakespeare

Hyman Minsky famously said that stability creates instability. Good times sow the seeds for bad times because people believe that stability will be the norm and growth will continue uninterrupted.

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Sorry Jack: Strong Economic Headwinds - Now What?

strong economic headwinds

Last week was one of those data weeks that corroborated the bond market’s view that the world is facing some strong economic headwinds. The news on the international front was particularly dismal with Chinese exports dropping by 20%, and German factory orders contracting as well.

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