With Bob Dylan having been awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature over the weekend I thought I would honor him by being very self-indulgent and creating my own lyrics to Blowin’ in the Wind. I have often found that taking the time to figure out the most important questions to ask can be more mind expanding and powerful than just focused on getting answers. The most applicable answers are of course a byproduct of the right questions being asked.
Bob Dylan
While Dylan asks some provocative questions in Blowin’ in the Wind, they are really designed to lead the horse to water and from what to him should be some obvious conclusions in terms of equal rights, the brutality of war, and the need for compassion.
How many roads must a man walk down
Before you call him a man?
How many seas must a white dove sail
Before she sleeps in the sand?
Yes, and how many times must the cannonballs fly
Before they’re forever banned?
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind
The answer is blowin’ in the wind
Yes, and how many years can a mountain exist
Before it’s washed to the sea?
Yes, and how many years can some people exist
Before they’re allowed to be free?
Yes, and how many times can a man turn his head
And pretend that he just doesn’t see?
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind
The answer is blowin’ in the wind
Yes, and how many times must a man look up
Before he can see the sky?
Yes, and how many ears must one man have
Before he can hear people cry?
Yes, and how many deaths will it take ’till he knows
That too many people have died?
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind
The answer is blowin’ in the wind
I think of Dylan’s questions in the context of a lawyer giving his closing argument to the jury and asking these provocative questions to help them come to the conclusions he wants them to reach to benefit his client. In this case, his client is humanity.
Gary Dylan
In my case, however, I am posing the questions because I really don’t have strong opinions or beliefs about the post-Trump world and by posing them I am hoping to put my mind in a more expansive and creative space to think about these issues and how they may apply to our investment decisions.
How many rate hikes will this Fed have
Before the economy starts to slow?
How many tweets must the President-Elect send
Before something bad is sown?
Yes, and how many jobs will the new President save
Before his approach is forever banned?
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind
The answer is blowin’ in the wind
Yes, and how many billions will the Chinese spend
To defend their currency from capital outflow?
Yes, and how many barrels will OPEC really cut
To keep oil in the sand?
Yes, and how will the shale drillers pick up the slack
And help propel Houston to the highest growth in the land?
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind
The answer is blowin’ in the wind
Yes, and how high will the dollar go
As the Fed hikes rates and other economies slow?
Yes, and how much will taxes be reduced
And will this spur much more demand?
Yes, and how much will be spent on infrastructure
And will this stimulate higher wages in the land?
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind
The answer is blowin’ in the wind
So there you have it, Gary Dylan, in a rare spark of creativity. One can see I’m wondering how many times the Fed will hike, what will the impact be on the global economy as the dollar appreciates and it results in tighter financial conditions around the world, especially in China. Will oil prices go higher and will OPEC cutting spur more energy job creation in Houston, where we have a number of our investments? Finally, what will be the impact of Trump’s tax and spending policy on job creation, wages, and household formations, as well as interest rates?
It will be an interesting 2017.
Congratulations Bob Dylan. Your Nobel Prize was well deserved.
Over to You:
Bob Dylan won his Nobel prize “for having created new poetic expressions within the great American song tradition”, I wonder what they would think of my efforts?
Keep,your day job, Gary 😊