Blog Archives

Many Pictures Tell a Story - The Fed

This week will be another one focused on charts and graphs that caught my attention. The emphasis will be on the story of the Fed remaining very dovish in spite of what appears to be some pockets of economic strength (e.g. housing, commodities, semiconductors),

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March of Folly and the Federal Reserve

Folly-and-the-Fed

In The March of Folly author Barbara Tuchman defines folly as acts that are clearly contrary to the self-interest of the organization or group pursuing them. It would seem like the Fed would fall into this definition. Its mandate is full employment and price stability while also providing prudent financial oversight to minimize the risks of financial contagion (I added the third one).

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Let's Get Real

COVID19 Vaccine Stimulus Jobs Numbers

The jobs report released on Friday was disappointing. 

Job growth has seriously slowed - economists react to 'disappointing' November employment report December 4, 2020

Disappointing Job Growth

Perhaps the report shouldn’t have been such a surprise on the downside based on this chart.

Meager Bounce for Job Hunting Searches in November 2020 Oct 1, 2019 - Feb 1, 2021

It would appear that job seekers are less confident about their prospects as they have significantly reduced their searches.

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Hold Your Judgments Lightly In a State of Disequilibrium

Disequilibrium

This blog post was inspired by one recently written by Dilbert creator Scott Adams. He is such a brilliant guy and was so right about Trump that I will forever hold him in the highest of esteem.

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Maximum Flexibility - Work from Anywhere

Maximum Flexiblity Work from Anywhere

The following chart shows that people are the most comfortable returning to work within a month or less as compared to other activities. The percentage is 65% so there is still a substantial minority who are still concerned about returning to their previous work environment. 

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A Brutal Dichotomy: Time For Another Meaningful Stimulus?

Brutal Dichotomy: Tightening Fed Stimulus

Fiscal stimulus has now started to contract while the Fed’s monetary support for the economy has tightened quite significantly over the last three months. See what the following charts show:

U.S. Fiscal Thrust Policy Expansionary Policy Contractionary Stimulus

Fed Balance Sheet Impulse 10-2020 Stimulus

The following is from The Washington Post and shows how significant the support for the unemployed has been and how it will drop materially if no stimulus package is passed.

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Dress For Success - The Cognitive Consequences of Formal Clothing

Dress for success

There is a reason why some catchy phrases and words of advice hang around for a long time. They are usually pretty accurate. “Dress for Success” is one of those. The adage is used to help people shift their mindset from one of scarcity and limited thinking to one that is much more abundance and optimism oriented.

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Blast to the Future

Beirut Blast @michaeltanchum

World's Top 5 Most Powerful Explosions

What happened in Beirut was absolutely horrific. As the graphic above shows, it is considered to be the most powerful non-nuclear explosion in history. To put the power of the blast in context, the Oklahoma City bombers used two tons of ammonium nitrate while Beirut’s ignited approximately 2,750 tons! 

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A Wonderful Trip - My Travels Through Greece, Italy and Israel

Greece Vacation

Socrates said that “wonder is the beginning of wisdom.” In my book, I talk about the importance of wonder in the context of leading a fulfilling, meaningful, and interesting life. One of the best ways to keep wonder alive is to get outside of our normal environment and travel.

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What's Going On? America in Crisis, in the Lyrics

America-In-Crisis

I was intending to write about the tremendous drop in interest rates around the world in the wake of Brexit, the dramatically improved jobs report, or the $20+ billion that is now frozen in UK property funds. And then the shocking execution of five Dallas police officers shortly after the death of two seemingly non-threatening African Americans in Louisiana and Minnesota took place.

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