Kudos to Heidi Garland who handles my social media. She is quite in her postings on my behalf on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. I never know what interesting tidbit she might be posting. Of all the platforms, Twitter is the most ephemeral as tweets are sent and they tend to have a short shelf life to them.
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Talk about a humbling week. Last week I was making the case that 3.11% on the 10-year Treasury note yield and possibly as high as 3.16% were the key levels that I did not think would be breached. This chart shows how wrong I was.
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It has been our belief at CWS that housing in totality has been undersupplied. This does not mean that apartments may not be over-supplied in certain metro areas, particularly in the urban core. This is the case because these properties are often very dense and result in the delivery of a lot of units at one time that can often result in rent discounts to entice people to rent at these communities so developers can expedite getting out of their construction loans and/or be in a position to sell their properties.
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Are We Opening Pandora’s Box to a New Housing Crisis?
With the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announcing that the Government Sponsored Agencies will probably start purchasing loans with 3% down payments, it’s understandable that people would be concerned that we’re opening up Pandora’s Box again to a new housing crisis precipitated by terrible lending practices.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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For the last few years, the Fed has been telegraphing that monetary policy cannot do all of the heavy lifting and that fiscal policy had to play a role as well. The market seemed to agree with the Fed and is also the reason that the market very rarely believed the Fed’s dot plot of the future path of interest rates.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Interest Rates, Investing, Manufacturing, News, Uncategorized
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With the midterm elections kicking into high gear and political rhetoric heating up and true believers huddling in their echo chambers and cocoons, I thought it would be interesting to look at some research carried out with regard to the 2016 presidential election and some of the surprising findings.
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When we started to scale our apartment business in the mid to late 1990s our location decisions were based on investing in cities that would be highly appealing to knowledge-based workers. It was starting to become clear that economic growth would be driven by technological innovation deployed widely throughout U.S.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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In an earlier blog, I discussed a fascinating study that asked whether stocks outperformed T-Bills. Surprisingly, the answer was that most stocks do not and the bulk of stock market returns have come from an incredibly small number of companies that have produced the estimated $32 trillion in wealth (returns in excess of T-Bills) between 1926 and 2015.
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There was a time when most people thought that you could never go wrong buying well-located real estate for the long term. This faith was definitely destroyed by the collapse of the housing bubble. Even with this experience, my guess is that most people would not assume that Beverly Hills real estate would be worth less than what it cost to build 46 years later.
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I recently read an article I enjoyed very much that touched on the importance of visualization in the context of how to find the next million dollar idea. I highly recommend the entire commentary as it is extremely well thought out and quite holistic in its approach.
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