Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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In an earlier blog, I discussed a fascinating study that asked whether stocks outperformed T-Bills. Surprisingly, the answer was that most stocks do not and the bulk of stock market returns have come from an incredibly small number of companies that have produced the estimated $32 trillion in wealth (returns in excess of T-Bills) between 1926 and 2015.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Under most economic environments longer-term debt instruments yield more than shorter ones. This is the case in order to compensate investors for risks related to purchasing power eroding and more uncertainty and volatility that can increase the probability of default (outside Treasuries). In addition, our banking system is based on banks accessing short-term deposits and being able to make longer-term loans and investments which necessitates longer rates being higher than shorter ones so banks can be profitable.
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Shortly after publishing my book I was in New York City and did a brief interview with Gregg Greenberg from TheStreet.com which was quite fun and then I had a meeting with investment legend Howard Marks which was such a treat. He was kind enough to write a testimonial for the book and made the time to let me thank him personally.
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The last few weeks have been a good representation as to why I have an aversion to fixed-rate loans when doing a refinance or an acquisition. Assuming fixed rate loans from sellers when acquiring properties, however, is a different story and worthy of its own write up so I won’t address the distinctions here.
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What a difference one week makes. Last week I was concerned that the 10-year Treasury note yield had breached its previous cycle peak. I used some questionable, but fancy statistical analysis to justify that the peak I should really be worried about was 3.16% versus the previous cycle peak of 3.04%.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Manufacturing, Market Bubbles, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Maybe I’m writing about the dollar because I’m traveling abroad soon so it affects my pocketbook. It could also be due to the rather shockingly overt talking down of the dollar by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin in Davos.
“Obviously a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities,”
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Like many other investors I am a big fan of Seeking Alpha as it is a terrific resource to research companies, markets, and to get a wide variety views regarding important economic, societal, and business trends. One of the most prolific writers there who I follow is Jeffrey Snider.
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One of the principal reasons I have been in the camp of interest rates remaining low for many years to come relates to demographics. I have always thought that Japan is the canary in the coal mine in terms of being on the leading edge of a rapidly aging society and how this filters through to lower interest rates.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Market Bubbles, News, Trends
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Is Mortgage Credit Too Tight – Ask Ben Bernanke
I must admit that I found it quite interesting (and entertaining) to read that Ben Bernanke could not refinance his house in Washington D.C. According to the article,
Bernanke already has refinanced twice. When the former Fed chair and his wife Anna bought their Capitol Hill rowhouse in May 2004,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Wealth
2 Comments ↓
As 2015 opens, like many of you, there are numerous questions I am pondering.
2015 Questions I’m Pondering
Oil
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