Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth
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The unemployment rate is the most important indicator for people who are believers in the Phillips Curve. Phillips Curvers believe that there is a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. The less slack in the labor markets (lower unemployment rate) the more inflation there will be as labor can bargain for higher wages and this,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Trends, Wealth
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With last week being dedicated to a much-enjoyed vacation, I thought I would let pictures do more of the talking this week.
Not surprisingly, the Fed increased its benchmark rate by 0.25%. The market fully priced this in. What is more surprising is the Fed telegraphing two more hikes in 2017 and commencing a slow reduction in its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities beginning at the end of the year.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Key economic data and stock prices almost always change before the narrative does. Although the housing meltdown didn’t really come into force until 2007, new home sales had already peaked in 2005 and this corresponded with the stock price of home builders hitting all-time highs. The first chart shows new home sales topping out in July 2015 and the same for Lennar’s stock price as the second chart depicts.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
1 Comment ↓
Auto sales have been one of the real bright areas of the economy ever since the “Cash for Clunkers” program ended and sales dropped back down to recessionary levels. The following chart shows how they have grown by approximately 100% from trough to peak.
Auto Sales
Unfortunately,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Wealth
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Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio have both come out and said that despite America being such a strong country and performing well economically, not all is right when looking under the hood.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Bob Dylan said, “You gotta serve somebody.” The Federal Reserve is no exception. The Fed has the mandate to use its policy tools granted to it by Congress to help achieve full employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates (most people are not aware of the third mandate).
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Uncategorized, Wealth
2 Comments ↓
I probably should have written this two weeks ago but I wanted to finish my Munger trilogy. I dislike when hindsight bias is used and prefer when people tell me when they are going to do something or just did and the reasons for it so that the decision can be evaluated objectively.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Warren Buffett and Bill Gates were interviewed recently to discuss why they are both so optimistic about the future of America as well as other issues. Naturally, one of the topics covered was philanthropy as Gates and Buffett are leading the charge with regard to the Giving Pledge and the two have given more money away than other people in the world.
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.”
-Albert Einstein
Waldorf Astoria Recent Sale Showing the Benefit of Long-Term Real Estate Ownership and Compound Interest
Another quick one this week given how busy a week it was.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Trends
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From Obama
This post is a blatant application of hindsight bias. We all now know that when Barack Obama won the election and subsequently took office, the economy was melting down and the financial markets were in a free fall around the globe. To refresh your memory, there was the bailout of AIG by the Fed,
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