Since this is the week my book (March 2015) officially comes out in bookstores, I would be remiss not to acknowledge it. Writing a book has been on my bucket list for a while so I’m excited and proud to have completed such a monumental goal.
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Blog Archives
This Space Is Getting Hot
There are things you can replace
And others you cannot
The time has come to weigh those things
This space is gettin’ hot
You know this space is gettin’
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GDPtopia
Last week, the GDP report for the 4th quarter was released as well as the Fed’s favorite inflation index, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE). The Fed should be very pleased with what the reports revealed and how it has defied the overwhelming consensus that a hard landing was necessary to break the back of inflation.
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Opening the Door to '24
It’s always good to reflect as a year comes to a close and a new one begins. Professionally, 2023 was extremely challenging (and humbling). Our beautiful hedge capping most of our variable rate loans at 1.25% for 30-day LIBOR, when it was still in existence,
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Peek-A-Boo Powell
Perhaps Powell’s pivot was highly influenced by having access to the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), well ahead of its official release last Friday. As this headline from the Wall Street Journal shows, the index went into negative territory,
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Powell Pivot III: Too Little Too Late for Overleveraged Apartment Owners?
Powell did it for the third time. He proved for the third time that you should listen to him carefully until he does something completely different, and then you should listen to him again. After raising rates aggressively starting in April 2022, after he had said that the Fed wouldn’t raise rates until the end of 2023 at the earliest,
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It's Getting Real
In the wake of last Friday’s jobs report, Treasuries sold off, and yields rose, as this table shows.
Once again, there was a material difference between the ADP report, which came in weaker than expected,
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Bill Walton - The Epitome of Perseverance
I recently finished Bill Walton’s autobiography and thoroughly enjoyed it. Talk about someone who has had a zest for life and embodies perseverance. That is one of the great benefits I get out of reading about other people’s lives.
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Dude, Where's My Recession? Only Time Will Tell
I was definitely in the camp that once the yield curve inverted, we were headed for a recession within a year or so. The spread between the 10-year Treasury and 2-year Treasury yields went negative (inverted) in early July 2022.
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The Braveheart Fed
I must say that when I read this tweet last week, I felt heard, listened to, and understood. It was cathartic in a way.
I know I’m being a bit melodramatic, but there are so many cross-currents in the economy that it has made forecasting quite challenging.
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