Whenever I think about the financial equation of the tennis court and associated amenities I just had built and question my sanity, I then experience incredible non-financial benefits to lend credence to my decision to do what I did and invest what I have.
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I’ve been wrestling with the theory that we have had a regime change from the credit dislocation cycles that have led to emergency-type measures from the Fed via balance sheet expansion and near 0% interest rates to one that has inflation as much more of a central concern due to powerful fiscal expansionary tendencies and other factors such as onshoring of manufacturing,
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Just when the market prices in four cuts for 2024, either the Fed comes out to talk the market down or data is released to suggest investors are being too aggressive in pricing in the number of Fed cuts.
We are now back to the point where the market and Fed are once again aligned on the number of cuts in 2024.
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Since this is the week my book (March 2015) officially comes out in bookstores, I would be remiss not to acknowledge it. Writing a book has been on my bucket list for a while so I’m excited and proud to have completed such a monumental goal.
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There are things you can replace
And others you cannot
The time has come to weigh those things
This space is gettin’ hot
You know this space is gettin’
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Last week, the GDP report for the 4th quarter was released as well as the Fed’s favorite inflation index, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE). The Fed should be very pleased with what the reports revealed and how it has defied the overwhelming consensus that a hard landing was necessary to break the back of inflation.
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It’s always good to reflect as a year comes to a close and a new one begins. Professionally, 2023 was extremely challenging (and humbling). Our beautiful hedge capping most of our variable rate loans at 1.25% for 30-day LIBOR, when it was still in existence,
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Perhaps Powell’s pivot was highly influenced by having access to the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), well ahead of its official release last Friday. As this headline from the Wall Street Journal shows, the index went into negative territory,
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Powell did it for the third time. He proved for the third time that you should listen to him carefully until he does something completely different, and then you should listen to him again. After raising rates aggressively starting in April 2022, after he had said that the Fed wouldn’t raise rates until the end of 2023 at the earliest,
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In the wake of last Friday’s jobs report, Treasuries sold off, and yields rose, as this table shows.
Once again, there was a material difference between the ADP report, which came in weaker than expected,
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