Blog Archives

Confusion and the Need for Second-Level Thinking

Inflation cross currents

Note: I was so absorbed in writing this blog while waiting for my connecting flight home at the Phoenix airport that I only realized after it was too late that I was at the wrong gate and that my flight was changed to a different gate in another terminal.

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Way Too Hot

LA Fires Lost Angeles Fire Sunset Blvd Fire

Last week was so devastating for those who lost their homes in the LA fires. This satellite image and analysis done by Microsoft of an area of Pacific Palisades shows over 2,000 buildings that were damaged or destroyed, with the vast majority being residential.

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Data (co)-Dependence

recession inflation

Last week was a very bad week for the bond market, with some reprieve on Friday after a better-than-expected inflation report. This is a 5-day chart for the 10-year Treasury. Yields shot up by 0.20% after the Fed cut rates on the 18th and in the aftermath of Jay Powell’s press conference. 

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Chris Robinson and Great CEOS - Inertia Destroyers

Chris Robinson and Great CEOS - Inertia Destroyers

Last week was definitely one that made me want to travel less and less. I had meetings in New York City on Thursday so I needed to be there by Wednesday night and then head back home to Orange County on Thursday evening. United has a non-stop from John Wayne to Newark which is really convenient.

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The Compounding of Intelligence - Is Wealth The Key?

intelligence

One of the conventional narratives in our capitalist society is that the wealthy and most successful people are often the brightest and hard-working. I think what this fails to take into consideration is the nature versus nurture debate. People often think of intelligence as being innate and not very changeable.

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Rust Never Sleeps

Tennis Rust

It’s been five weeks since my back surgery and I’ve been doing my best to follow instructions from my doctor and physical therapist to lay off tennis and other strenuous activities for at least six weeks. And while I have generally adhered to their advice,

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Mixed Signals and Another Powell Pivot

Mixed Signals and Another Powell Pivot

There’s an old joke about economists that asks what happens when you put 10 economists in a room. You get 10 opinions. Well, in predicting whether the Fed would cut the Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points or 50 basis points, they were virtually unanimous in their opinion,

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Housing Shock Therapy

Housing Shock Therapy

It’s been a challenging couple of years for apartment owners, but, as I have been writing about over the past year or so, there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel. This is because apartment construction while having been at historically high levels,

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Capping off a Good Week

Rate Cap

After the chaos in Japan led to a pretty massive unwind of the yen carry trade, which spilled over to stock market losses and Treasury market gains (yields dropping), last week reversed some of that carnage. The stock market rebounded sharply, and bond yields went up,

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Gradually ---> Suddenly (Yet Again)

Gradually Suddenly

I think this headline last Friday from CNBC tells us much of what we need to know about the economy. 

August 2, 2024 Dow tumbles 800 points, Nasdaq enters correction territory

Up until recently disappointing economic news was generally good for the stock market because it has led to lower interest rates and more pressure on the Fed to cut rates.

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