In some ways, I can understand investors looking through the threat of tariffs on multiple fronts by President Trump as just his standard negotiating tactic to strike a better deal. Despite very derogatory statements directed towards our strong allies and trading partners of Canada,
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Kudos to Heidi Garland who handles my social media. She is quite in her postings on my behalf on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. I never know what interesting tidbit she might be posting. Of all the platforms, Twitter is the most ephemeral as tweets are sent and they tend to have a short shelf life to them.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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For the last few years, the Fed has been telegraphing that monetary policy cannot do all of the heavy lifting and that fiscal policy had to play a role as well. The market seemed to agree with the Fed and is also the reason that the market very rarely believed the Fed’s dot plot of the future path of interest rates.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Interest Rates, Investing, Manufacturing, News, Uncategorized
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With the midterm elections kicking into high gear and political rhetoric heating up and true believers huddling in their echo chambers and cocoons, I thought it would be interesting to look at some research carried out with regard to the 2016 presidential election and some of the surprising findings.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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In an earlier blog, I discussed a fascinating study that asked whether stocks outperformed T-Bills. Surprisingly, the answer was that most stocks do not and the bulk of stock market returns have come from an incredibly small number of companies that have produced the estimated $32 trillion in wealth (returns in excess of T-Bills) between 1926 and 2015.
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I recently read an article I enjoyed very much that touched on the importance of visualization in the context of how to find the next million dollar idea. I highly recommend the entire commentary as it is extremely well thought out and quite holistic in its approach.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, News, Psychology, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Paul O’Neill, who ran Alcoa and quintupled profits during his 13-year tenure, famously focused on one keystone habit to transform the company. It’s worker safety. Analysts and investors couldn’t believe their ears when he was introduced as the new CEO when he said that would be the company’s most important focus.
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Tom Petty used to sing that you don’t have to live like a refugee. On the other hand, John Mellencamp said “suck it up and tough it out, be the best you can.” So what would most people choose?
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Apartments, Economy, Manufacturing, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Income inequality has many economic and societal impacts. When more wealth is concentrated in fewer hands, this can negatively impact aggregate demand as a large percentage of marginal dollars earned are saved versus spent. And since one person’s spending is another person’s income, a growing pool of savings will lower aggregate demand unless one or more sectors of the economy spend more than it earns as output will go unsold and have to be marked down for it to clear.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, News, People, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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With the World Cup having been completed this past weekend I thought I would tap into some interesting research about soccer and its ability to unify countries that are typically very tribal and fractious. I saw some of this firsthand during my recent trip to Africa where it was pretty evident that tribalism is very much alive and well.
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