Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Apartments, Economy, Manufacturing, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Income inequality has many economic and societal impacts. When more wealth is concentrated in fewer hands, this can negatively impact aggregate demand as a large percentage of marginal dollars earned are saved versus spent. And since one person’s spending is another person’s income, a growing pool of savings will lower aggregate demand unless one or more sectors of the economy spend more than it earns as output will go unsold and have to be marked down for it to clear.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, News, People, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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With the World Cup having been completed this past weekend I thought I would tap into some interesting research about soccer and its ability to unify countries that are typically very tribal and fractious. I saw some of this firsthand during my recent trip to Africa where it was pretty evident that tribalism is very much alive and well.
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“In every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten, then he who continues the attack wins.”
-Ulysses S. Grant
“When things get really bad, just raise your glass and stamp your feet and do a little jig.
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There is a line from a Grateful Dead song that says:
I remember on our recent long sojourn to Africa and Asia there were a number of days when we are out on excursions and it was oppressively hot. The temperatures were close to 100° and the humidity was well over 50%.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Under most economic environments longer-term debt instruments yield more than shorter ones. This is the case in order to compensate investors for risks related to purchasing power eroding and more uncertainty and volatility that can increase the probability of default (outside Treasuries). In addition, our banking system is based on banks accessing short-term deposits and being able to make longer-term loans and investments which necessitates longer rates being higher than shorter ones so banks can be profitable.
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Shortly after publishing my book I was in New York City and did a brief interview with Gregg Greenberg from TheStreet.com which was quite fun and then I had a meeting with investment legend Howard Marks which was such a treat. He was kind enough to write a testimonial for the book and made the time to let me thank him personally.
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Human beings are reaction machines versus reflective and responsive individuals. We are our own worst investing enemies when it comes to investing successfully. Most people are easily susceptible to bouts of fear and greed when it comes to investing. Unfortunately, these emotional highs and lows are often when the masses are reacting in a similar manner.
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The last few weeks have been a good representation as to why I have an aversion to fixed-rate loans when doing a refinance or an acquisition. Assuming fixed rate loans from sellers when acquiring properties, however, is a different story and worthy of its own write up so I won’t address the distinctions here.
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What a difference one week makes. Last week I was concerned that the 10-year Treasury note yield had breached its previous cycle peak. I used some questionable, but fancy statistical analysis to justify that the peak I should really be worried about was 3.16% versus the previous cycle peak of 3.04%.
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I recently completed Titan: The Life of John D. Rockefeller, Sr. by Ron Chernow and it is a wonderful read about the fascinating life and times of John D. Rockefeller. Ida Tarbell, one of the great muckraking writers and profilers who gained her fame while writing for McClure’s was personally impacted by Standard Oil’s brash business tactics.
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