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For this week I was originally going to continue my analysis of interest-rate cycles since last week, I looked at increasing interest rate cycles and I was intending to look at decreasing cycles this week. In light of the widely reported and fairly startling suicide of Kate Spade and now Anthony Bourdain,
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Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed,
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I was intending to write about the tremendous drop in interest rates around the world in the wake of Brexit, the dramatically improved jobs report, or the $20+ billion that is now frozen in UK property funds. And then the shocking execution of five Dallas police officers shortly after the death of two seemingly non-threatening African Americans in Louisiana and Minnesota took place.
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This is what I wrote in my blog of May 7, 2018:
So up until this point having bet on floating rate has been a winning bet. The question now is whether it will be going forward. Before answering that,
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Ok, let’s get this out of the way first since this blog has a subliminal purpose of being a diary for major economic and financial milestones so this is one I can’t ignore.
Now to the subject at hand.
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As states start to open up, economic activity will undoubtedly increase. The S&P 500 is up approximately 26% from its March 23rd low, perhaps suggesting the worst is behind us for now. Of course, the question on everyone’s mind is whether there will be a second wave as more people congregate at work,
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Yet again we have witnessed something unprecedented. As the following two charts show, we have never had negative oil prices until last week. Oil has never been cheaper on an inflation-adjusted basis than it is today.
Source: Marketwatch
And while under “normal” circumstances this would be great for the consumer,
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Charlie Munger can be extremely loquacious as he is one who loves to pontificate and definitely has something to say. He also knows when to stay quiet. When he and Warren Buffett hold court at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting and a question is asked of Buffett and after answering it he turns to Charlie and asks him if he has anything to add.
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Our extended sheltering in place has naturally led to a lot of time to think and reflect. I’m a big mindset person which reminds me that I have a choice as to how I frame every situation. When I frame situations as challenges and opportunities versus insurmountable problems then I am much more energized and motivated to fight the good battle to come out the other side stronger and wiser.
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