I was intending to write about the tremendous drop in interest rates around the world in the wake of Brexit, the dramatically improved jobs report, or the $20+ billion that is now frozen in UK property funds. And then the shocking execution of five Dallas police officers shortly after the death of two seemingly non-threatening African Americans in Louisiana and Minnesota took place.
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This is what I wrote in my blog of May 7, 2018:
So up until this point having bet on floating rate has been a winning bet. The question now is whether it will be going forward. Before answering that,
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Ok, let’s get this out of the way first since this blog has a subliminal purpose of being a diary for major economic and financial milestones so this is one I can’t ignore.
Now to the subject at hand.
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As states start to open up, economic activity will undoubtedly increase. The S&P 500 is up approximately 26% from its March 23rd low, perhaps suggesting the worst is behind us for now. Of course, the question on everyone’s mind is whether there will be a second wave as more people congregate at work,
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Yet again we have witnessed something unprecedented. As the following two charts show, we have never had negative oil prices until last week. Oil has never been cheaper on an inflation-adjusted basis than it is today.
Source: Marketwatch
And while under “normal” circumstances this would be great for the consumer,
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Charlie Munger can be extremely loquacious as he is one who loves to pontificate and definitely has something to say. He also knows when to stay quiet. When he and Warren Buffett hold court at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting and a question is asked of Buffett and after answering it he turns to Charlie and asks him if he has anything to add.
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Our extended sheltering in place has naturally led to a lot of time to think and reflect. I’m a big mindset person which reminds me that I have a choice as to how I frame every situation. When I frame situations as challenges and opportunities versus insurmountable problems then I am much more energized and motivated to fight the good battle to come out the other side stronger and wiser.
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I’m not one to typically advocate following the herd but in the case of the coronavirus, I am having a hard time seeing an end game that doesn’t have herd immunity as the ultimate goal. And this could take a long time and lead to a lengthier economic contraction (to put it mildly) and even more massive federal intervention through government spending and Federal Reserve support of financial markets.
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Wal-Mart obviously generates a lot of strong reactions. There are those who love it because it has brought lower prices to those who need it the most combined with a strong selection. Others believe it represents everything wrong with America. A relentless focus on cost control at the expense of “living wages”,
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Risk comes in all forms and fashions and it’s a real talent to identify risk. Howard Marks, Chairman of Oaktree Capital Management and who was kind enough to write a testimonial for my book, is perhaps the foremost expert at identifying different types of risk and assessing it.
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