Last week may have finally been the week when the Fed aligned with markets that the peak in rates may be in for this cycle. The Fed held rates in what was initially categorized as a “hawkish pause.” It was during the Jay Powell press conference that the market started to believe that maybe the Fed was done raising rates.
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I must say that when I read this tweet last week, I felt heard, listened to, and understood. It was cathartic in a way.
I know I’m being a bit melodramatic, but there are so many cross-currents in the economy that it has made forecasting quite challenging.
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This will be a rather short blog following up on last week’s focus on key levels for the 2 and 10-year Treasury yields.
I’m a bit tired as last night (Thursday), I had a flight connection through D/FW Airport to return home to Orange County.
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Milton Friedman famously said that “Persistent inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” I have never been much of a monetarist because I thought there were many other factors influencing inflation, particularly demand factors, technological innovation, demographics, and the presence or absence of animal spirits among investors and capital providers.
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It’s great to be back blogging after a long sabbatical [2014] that had CWS and I focused on an extraordinarily time-consuming, complex, and large portfolio recapitalization. In addition, I have also been spending a lot of time doing open heart surgery on the book I’m working on via a comprehensive reorganization and re-write.
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Last week was my birthday, and I chose to celebrate it by heading to my home in the desert to check out some work that had been done and to play tennis. This picture from my car dashboard shows a couple of pieces of interesting information.
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With the exception of writing about interest rates. I do make a concerted effort to have content on my blog be fresh and try to avoid repetition. With that being said, however, there is only so much one can write about that is novel and insightful.
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Legendary real estate investor Sam Zell passed away last week at 81. He was clearly a larger-than-life figure who communicated in a very unfiltered way such that you always knew what he thought and where he stood.
In the last year or two,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, COVID 19, Investing, Labor, Personal, Psychology
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One of the beneficial things about writing a blog each week is that it helps me prepare for presentations that I have to do periodically. Last week we had our national meeting in Austin for many of our CWS employees, and this week we have our annual investor meeting.
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This week is the 10th anniversary of my website going live, and during this decade, I have fortunately been able to write a blog each week without interruption. It has helped me become more observant and focused while on vacations knowing I will write about some of them while away.
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