“In every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten, then he who continues the attack wins.”
-Ulysses S. Grant
“When things get really bad, just raise your glass and stamp your feet and do a little jig.
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“In every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten, then he who continues the attack wins.”
-Ulysses S. Grant
“When things get really bad, just raise your glass and stamp your feet and do a little jig.
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There is a line from a Grateful Dead song that says:
I remember on our recent long sojourn to Africa and Asia there were a number of days when we are out on excursions and it was oppressively hot. The temperatures were close to 100° and the humidity was well over 50%.
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35 years ago on the night of June 27th, a friend of mine and I slept on very uncomfortable concrete outside of Dane County Coliseum in Madison, Wisconsin. The catalyst for this was fear of missing out as we were intent on doing our best to position ourselves to secure a great location for the next night’s concert being put on by the Grateful Dead as all seats were general admission.
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Under most economic environments longer-term debt instruments yield more than shorter ones. This is the case in order to compensate investors for risks related to purchasing power eroding and more uncertainty and volatility that can increase the probability of default (outside Treasuries). In addition, our banking system is based on banks accessing short-term deposits and being able to make longer-term loans and investments which necessitates longer rates being higher than shorter ones so banks can be profitable.
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Human beings are reaction machines versus reflective and responsive individuals. We are our own worst investing enemies when it comes to investing successfully. Most people are easily susceptible to bouts of fear and greed when it comes to investing. Unfortunately, these emotional highs and lows are often when the masses are reacting in a similar manner.
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What a difference one week makes. Last week I was concerned that the 10-year Treasury note yield had breached its previous cycle peak. I used some questionable, but fancy statistical analysis to justify that the peak I should really be worried about was 3.16% versus the previous cycle peak of 3.04%.
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In my over 30-year investment career, I have found that it is a more logical flow to go from micro to macro. What I mean is that there is no substitute for experience to help formulate a set of theories and overall investment philosophy versus the other way around. It may sound good on paper to read what others have written and postulated and from these wise teachings form a prism through which to make key decisions,
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Warren Buffett has said that people should read 500 pages a day if they want to compound knowledge at a very high rate. Along the same lines, Bill Gates reads at least one book a week to help satisfy his immense curiosity.
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The tariff debate and controversy seems to be escalating and has been leading to tremendous stock market volatility. Whenever there is such a heated topic that catalyzes strong emotions I like to take a step back and find ways to drown out the cacophony. One of the ways I do this is to ignore today and look to history to see what I can learn from the past.
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