Whenever there are significant events that take place, particularly those with some historical context, I like to take a step back and, if possible, go back in time and find real-time sources to generate a better understanding of what people were thinking at the time. The terrible events in Charlottesville was a catalyst for me to take this approach.
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Let us put men and women together, see which one is smarter,
Some say men, but I say no, women got the men like a puppet show.
It ain’t me it’s the people that say,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth
3 Comments ↓
The unemployment rate is the most important indicator for people who are believers in the Phillips Curve. Phillips Curvers believe that there is a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. The less slack in the labor markets (lower unemployment rate) the more inflation there will be as labor can bargain for higher wages and this,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Trends, Wealth
No Comments ↓
With last week being dedicated to a much-enjoyed vacation, I thought I would let pictures do more of the talking this week.
Not surprisingly, the Fed increased its benchmark rate by 0.25%. The market fully priced this in. What is more surprising is the Fed telegraphing two more hikes in 2017 and commencing a slow reduction in its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities beginning at the end of the year.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Investing, News, People, Personal, Uncategorized, Wealth
2 Comments ↓
A few weeks ago I referenced Bob Dylan’s recommendation that we find our calling. I saw this in action last week and had this supplemented by some of the things I read. I had the pleasure to go to Philadelphia to attend the graduation of my niece from the University of Pennsylvania where she was awarded a Ph.D.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth
1 Comment ↓
Key economic data and stock prices almost always change before the narrative does. Although the housing meltdown didn’t really come into force until 2007, new home sales had already peaked in 2005 and this corresponded with the stock price of home builders hitting all-time highs. The first chart shows new home sales topping out in July 2015 and the same for Lennar’s stock price as the second chart depicts.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
1 Comment ↓
Auto sales have been one of the real bright areas of the economy ever since the “Cash for Clunkers” program ended and sales dropped back down to recessionary levels. The following chart shows how they have grown by approximately 100% from trough to peak.
Auto Sales
Unfortunately,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio have both come out and said that despite America being such a strong country and performing well economically, not all is right when looking under the hood.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth
2 Comments ↓
Bob Dylan said, “You gotta serve somebody.” The Federal Reserve is no exception. The Fed has the mandate to use its policy tools granted to it by Congress to help achieve full employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates (most people are not aware of the third mandate).
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I recently re-read George Soros’ lectures at Central European University from October 2009. He gave five of them and they will be something I return to over time. Soros’ most formative experience was as a 14-year-old in 1944 and having escaped the Nazis out of Hungary.
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