Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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For the last few years, the Fed has been telegraphing that monetary policy cannot do all of the heavy lifting and that fiscal policy had to play a role as well. The market seemed to agree with the Fed and is also the reason that the market very rarely believed the Fed’s dot plot of the future path of interest rates.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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In an earlier blog, I discussed a fascinating study that asked whether stocks outperformed T-Bills. Surprisingly, the answer was that most stocks do not and the bulk of stock market returns have come from an incredibly small number of companies that have produced the estimated $32 trillion in wealth (returns in excess of T-Bills) between 1926 and 2015.
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I recently read an article I enjoyed very much that touched on the importance of visualization in the context of how to find the next million dollar idea. I highly recommend the entire commentary as it is extremely well thought out and quite holistic in its approach.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Apartments, Economy, Manufacturing, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Income inequality has many economic and societal impacts. When more wealth is concentrated in fewer hands, this can negatively impact aggregate demand as a large percentage of marginal dollars earned are saved versus spent. And since one person’s spending is another person’s income, a growing pool of savings will lower aggregate demand unless one or more sectors of the economy spend more than it earns as output will go unsold and have to be marked down for it to clear.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, News, People, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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With the World Cup having been completed this past weekend I thought I would tap into some interesting research about soccer and its ability to unify countries that are typically very tribal and fractious. I saw some of this firsthand during my recent trip to Africa where it was pretty evident that tribalism is very much alive and well.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Under most economic environments longer-term debt instruments yield more than shorter ones. This is the case in order to compensate investors for risks related to purchasing power eroding and more uncertainty and volatility that can increase the probability of default (outside Treasuries). In addition, our banking system is based on banks accessing short-term deposits and being able to make longer-term loans and investments which necessitates longer rates being higher than shorter ones so banks can be profitable.
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Like most people, especially investors, I’ve been wondering about whether there is a philosophical prism through which Donald Trump sees the world other than through deals and negotiations. In business, especially in real estate, there are often objective outcomes to shoot for to know if you are winning,
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One of the premises of my book is that wealth goes far beyond the financial realm. A future blog post will discuss this in more detail. With the new year approaching this, is the time of year when many people make resolutions for the year ahead. I thought I would illuminate some very interesting research about money and happiness that may help influence readers in terms of what to focus on when it comes to their resolutions.
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The tariff debate and controversy seems to be escalating and has been leading to tremendous stock market volatility. Whenever there is such a heated topic that catalyzes strong emotions I like to take a step back and find ways to drown out the cacophony. One of the ways I do this is to ignore today and look to history to see what I can learn from the past.
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I am an avid reader and always on the lookout for interesting information and trends that might spark some kind of insight with regard to economic, financial, or societal trends. I thought I would share a few graphics that caught my attention recently. These are in no particular order.
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